Let's assume that untreated severe means death. Let's take the lower value 13.8%. Now let's factor in that in a developed country there are some 0,5% hospital

Let's assume that untreated severe means death. Let's take the lower value 13.8%. Now let's factor in that in a developed country there are some 0,5% hospital beds total capacity. Let's say that Covid-19 can have at disposal half of those beds. If you do not do all you can to flatten the curve, you are probably looking at a 10% death rate over infected population, if not more. That's over 6 million people in the UK. IMHO, you have to do something to buy more time, although it is yet to be seen if lockdowns will be effective enough as this guy seems to be too strong.