3 ms·
I don't think stopping the spread is unreasonable or incredibly difficult. It's being done in HK, Singapore, and Taiwan now. First you lock down to get cases
by cameldrv 7y ago
I don't think stopping the spread is unreasonable or incredibly difficult. It's being done in HK, Singapore, and Taiwan now. First you lock down to get cases to roughly single digits, then people come out, but it's different.
The trick is you need to get R0<1, so that when a new case pops up, it dies out instead of blowing up. You do that with mask wearing, hygiene, aggressive contact tracing, broad scale testing, and strict isolation. You keep people alive that get the virus by having good medical care.
The aggressive contact tracing, isolation, and good medical care don't scale. If you have only dozens of cases, you can afford to aggressively isolate and put a lot of manpower into tracing every case. You give the virus no breathing room. If there aren't too many people needing medical care, you can also provide them much better care.
This is why you need the lockdown -- to get R0<<1, to bring down the case count dramatically so that these other measures can work.
We could have just started with Phase 2 outside of China, but we didn't spin up all of the things that you need for Phase 2 in time. The countries that are doing the best had previous SARS experience, which was successfully eradicated with these measures, so they knew what to do right away and were institutionally prepared to act quickly.
- stOneskull 7y agoFor how long? Give me liberty or give me death.
- cameldrv 7y agoIn Wuhan they got R0 down to about 0.3 with lockdown, contact tracing, and central quarantine. Serial interval is about a week. I estimate we have about 40,000 infections in the U.S. right now. If you want 10 cases, you need a 4000x reduction we'd need about six weeks. The sooner and more aggressively we start, the shorter the lockdown has to be. Half measures that leave R0 above 1 don't help much and just prolong the lockdown. Take my liberty now so that I can have it later.
- burntoutfire 7y agoWhat is next though? It seems to me that, after you end the lockdown, the disease will just be brought back there from other infected regions.