3 ms·

Link to the evidence of long term issues please, or is this just scaremongering.

by Gupie 7y ago

hatenberg 7y ago
Long term dear, it takes months to years after recovery for 'evidence' (I assume you mean scientific studies) because that's what long term means. The Ebola studies took 2 years to conclusively determine long term effects. There is several studies in pre-read discussing permanent lung scarring (not exactly surprising from what we know about serious cases spending weeks incubated) and two discussing t-cell exhaustion but they are not peer reviewed yet but you should have no problem locating them. For SARS we saw significant long term ling damage and, in a statistically significant number of people, terminal, worsening lung scarring over 4 years, so given the strong similarities in the genome of Cov-SARS-2 it's a concern too... we will only know in a few years time. Humans have the ability to learn from patterns. Many viruses have long term effects, especially if the initial infection was rough - I listed a few examples. Now we can call this fearmongering and ignore the possibility, but that seems more like a reflexive reaction to dismiss a realistic, potentially dangerous threat than a serious addition to this conversation.
- Gupie 7y ago
  No that is the definition of scaremongering, "the spreading of frightening or ominous reports or rumours".
  - hatenberg 7y ago
    Isn't that exactly how the west ended up in this clusterfuck. Dismissing what happened in China as scaremongering and failing to prepare for the likelihood of global spread? Ignoring risks we cannot personally control is a human staple and we found many ways over the years do deal with that, chiefly religion - but it does not remove the risk, it just makes us feel better about it
aantthony 7y ago
It's not about the existing evidence it's about the lack thereof, and thus it must be considered as a possibility. To do otherwise is an extremely dangerous assumption. It's valid point and I don't see that as scaremongering. I'm not an expert but I found this preprint: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v...
molmalo 7y ago
Other could point to a formal paper, but you can read this in the meanwhile, https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-lung-function-gasping-air-hong-kong-doctors-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-...
- Gupie 7y ago
  20-30% drop in lung capacity that "might improve over time" is hardly comparable to HIV or Ebola.
  - molmalo 7y ago
    It takes years to recover, IF you recover that lost capacity (that's why it's "might improve"). Also, there's reported cases of people relapsing after being "recovered". Some of them even died, increasing suspicion that this virus might be biphasic: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer/explainer-coronavirus-reappears-in-discharged-patients-raising-questions-in-containment-fight-idUSKCN20M124 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-... We simply don't know a lot about this virus yet.

Link to the evidence of long term issues please, or is this just scaremongering.

by Gupie 7y ago

Link to the evidence of long term issues please, or is this just scaremongering.

Long term dear, it takes months to years after recovery for 'evidence' (I assume you mean scientific studies) because that's what long term means. The Ebola studies took 2 years to conclusively determine long term effects. There is several studies in pre-read discussing permanent lung scarring (not exactly surprising from what we know about serious cases spending weeks incubated) and two discussing t-cell exhaustion but they are not peer reviewed yet but you should have no problem locating them. For SARS we saw significant long term ling damage and, in a statistically significant number of people, terminal, worsening lung scarring over 4 years, so given the strong similarities in the genome of Cov-SARS-2 it's a concern too... we will only know in a few years time. Humans have the ability to learn from patterns. Many viruses have long term effects, especially if the initial infection was rough - I listed a few examples. Now we can call this fearmongering and ignore the possibility, but that seems more like a reflexive reaction to dismiss a realistic, potentially dangerous threat than a serious addition to this conversation.

Gupie 7y ago
No that is the definition of scaremongering, "the spreading of frightening or ominous reports or rumours".
- hatenberg 7y ago
  Isn't that exactly how the west ended up in this clusterfuck. Dismissing what happened in China as scaremongering and failing to prepare for the likelihood of global spread? Ignoring risks we cannot personally control is a human staple and we found many ways over the years do deal with that, chiefly religion - but it does not remove the risk, it just makes us feel better about it

aantthony 7y ago

It's not about the existing evidence it's about the lack thereof, and thus it must be considered as a possibility. To do otherwise is an extremely dangerous assumption. It's valid point and I don't see that as scaremongering. I'm not an expert but I found this preprint: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v...

molmalo 7y ago

Other could point to a formal paper, but you can read this in the meanwhile, https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-lung-function-gasping-air-hong-kong-doctors-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-...

Gupie 7y ago
20-30% drop in lung capacity that "might improve over time" is hardly comparable to HIV or Ebola.
- molmalo 7y ago
  It takes years to recover, IF you recover that lost capacity (that's why it's "might improve"). Also, there's reported cases of people relapsing after being "recovered". Some of them even died, increasing suspicion that this virus might be biphasic: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer/explainer-coronavirus-reappears-in-discharged-patients-raising-questions-in-containment-fight-idUSKCN20M124 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-... We simply don't know a lot about this virus yet.