7 ms·

Elon Musk Downplays Covid-19 Danger in Email to Space-X Employees

muzika 7y ago
Musk usually says whatever is most beneficial to him and his companies.
- powerbroker 7y ago
  All in the service of making human s a multiplanetary species. Did people think that would happen without some sacrifices along the way? Look at those astronauts. Their bone marrow is being zapped by ionizing radiation? Man-up, and keep building those rockets!
  - geofft 7y ago
    > Did people think that would happen without some sacrifices along the way? There's a different between a sacrifice in service of a goal, and a sacrifice because you're too stupid to stay safe. Humankind will not fail to become a multiplanetary species even if SpaceX were to shut down entirely for a year.
- justinator 7y ago
  Is it news that he acts like a sociopath?
hfufigivknog 7y ago
His sentiment is correct. The source for what I’m saying is a veteran virologist with 40 years of experience dealing with these exact kinds of things. A two hour interview was linked from a previous HN thread. Despite what ceejayoz might try to tell you, corona viruses do not mutate in the way that influenza does. Influenza mutates in a way that evades the immune system but retains other qualities. This is why new vaccines for the flu are always being developed. Despite the fact that corona virus family viruses are responsible for a very small amount of “common cold,” they do not exhibit this behavior. They do mutate though, which is why we are seeing two “versions” of covid-19. The ultimate meaning of all this is that once a population gains collective immunity, the virus will basically disappear. In layman's terms, the virus will go away probably between 3 to 6 months from now in the United States. If anyone tries to refute this, post actual evidence or expert testimony showing that covid-19 mutates in a similar way to influenza. Like Elon musk points out, only those with immune system problems are at risk. This includes some people of advanced age, some people with diabetes and various other people. The virus appears to kill people like many other similar illnesses: if the infection spreads to deeply within the lungs, gas transfer is interrupted and secondary bacterial infection sets in, commonly known as pneumonia. The treatment for which is antibiotics and an oxygen line. This is why you see Italy asking specifically for more oxygen equipment, in my non expert opinion. Both these treatments are widely available and do not require special skill to acquire or administer. Patients who do not benefit from these would require mechanical ventilation. The fatality rate is massively skewed toward severity because of the lack of testing. If all the benign cases were taken into account, the facility rate would be much smaller although still high enough to take seriously. Remote administration of oxygen and antibiotics, washing hands, and light self-quarantine, all very easy to do, will blunt the impact on hospitals significantly. Overall, the threat that this virus poses to most people and society in general has been overblown by the for-profit media. I would like to apologize for being so impolite in addressing this topic previously. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0896841120300469 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S089684112... https://youtu.be/WWNuDT4t-TM https://youtu.be/WWNuDT4t-TM
- nopriorarrests 7y ago
  >the virus will go away probably between 3 to 6 months It took 3 weeks to fuck up Italy in a royal way, so "3 to 6 month" does not instill confidence, tbh
- geofft 7y ago
  > In layman's terms, the virus will go away probably between 3 to 6 months from now in the United States. No one (serious) disputes this, and the number of cases in China and South Korea is already on the way down. The question is how many people it will kill along the way. > only those with immune system problems are at risk 1. What immune system problem did Wenliang Li have? (If you want to say "mostly," sure, but "only" is an unsubstantiated claim.) 2. People can become asymptomatic carriers pretty easily. That's a good reason why someone with authority over groups of people that contain some at-risk folks should attempt to prevent or reduce the frequency of such gatherings, at least until we develop collective immunity or a vaccine. (Such people include CEOs, pastors, concert organizers, politicians, etc.) Furthermore, asymptomatic carriers can pass the virus onto other asymptomatic carriers, so until we've started developing some immunity, it's a good idea for even groups of entirely not-at-risk people to limit gatherings, to reduce secondary transmission to at-risk people. People with immune system problems aren't doomed to die immediately, and it's worth taking steps to prevent them from getting infected, if you can. (Yes, people with immune system problems, older people, etc. have some chance of dying soon anyway. But everyone is going to die at some point. It is a widely-accepted moral principle that this doesn't excuse causing people to die early.) > secondary bacterial infection sets in, commonly known as pneumonia This is incorrect - SARS-CoV-2 is unusual in that it's capable of causing pneumonia on its own, without a secondary bacterial infection. Antibiotics won't help. See, for instance, https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2... . > Overall, the threat that this virus poses to most people and society in general has been overblown by the for-profit media. What's the profit angle here? What's the benefit to big media from people being unwilling to attend movies and concerts? Meanwhile, how do you explain the absolute terror in the voices of medical professionals unaffiliated with the media, such as https://twitter.com/tina_nguyen/status/1238879814863519744 https://twitter.com/tina_nguyen/status/1238879814863519744 or https://left.it/2020/03/13/covid_19-open-letter-from-italy-to-the-international-scientific-community/ https://left.it/2020/03/13/covid_19-open-letter-from-italy-t... (or, you know, Wenliang Li)?
jacquesm 7y ago
Elon Musk hasn't found a crisis yet that he did not use to put his foot in his mouth somehow. I've given up on believing that he will grow up at some point.
- xivzgrev 7y ago
  Exactly. Of all people I would expect him to understand what an exponential growth rate means. He clearly does, which means he has his head up his ass on this one.
  - arcticfox 7y ago
    I really don't get it. The only way I can see to arrive at this conclusion with a handle on math is if you 100% write-off old people and immunocompromised as already dead. If you literally only count healthy adults, I still probably wouldn't agree with his position, but I could see how it could be argued.
    - spiderfarmer 7y ago
      I really think he doesn’t care about other people. If you discount publicity stunts, there is nothing in his legacy that convinces me otherwise.
- Torwald 7y ago
  Elon is right in his assessment. Why do you have to badmouth him?
  - spiderfarmer 7y ago
    Elon is not more wrong than you are.
    - Torwald 7y ago
      For a negative value of wrong he probably is.
pcdoodle 7y ago
I'm going to get down voted but this is rational CEO speak.
- arcticfox 7y ago
  Can you elaborate on how this is rational? I'm almost always strongly in agreement with Musk, but I think he's so far off here I can't even understand it. It's ridiculous to use the current fatality numbers, the question is the potential. Does he really think cars are more dangerous in Northern Italy right now than COVID? COVID has killed about 1000 people in Lombardy (pop 10 million) in a week. That's twice the number of fatalities Lombardy generally sees from cars in a year and it's getting worse daily, despite the aggressive countermeasures. I don't see any reason why the rest of the world won't look like Lombardy unless measures are taken.
  - spiderfarmer 7y ago
    You won’t get an answer. Somehow the overlap between Elon Musks cult following and Fox News viewers is larger than I expected.
  - manicdee 7y ago
    Current death toll in Italy is under 2000 nationwide (2020-03-15). Nationwide road fatalities are around 3,000pa. Italy is an example of the worst case scenario of poor management and susceptible population.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
mrtksn 7y ago
It’s dangerous when cult leaders take sides in these things. He is anti-public transportation with reasons including being dangerous since you might be traveling with a serial killer and people should use insulated pods that he wants to make but the same people should not be afraid of a virus and keep working together. I admire Elon in many ways but I am terrified of his tendencies of psychopathy. According to Musk, We should use individual cars because there’s a risk to have a serial killer in the metro train but it’s statistically safe to gather with people when a deadly virus is spreading. Cult follower would buy that and amplify the message. It’s scary stuff, let’s hope the guy doesn’t turn into an anti-vaxxer or something like that(because “we need as spicies to evolve through natural selection so we can live in exoplanets” maybe?).
- londons_explore 7y ago
  I see him as someone who thinks in a 100% "for the benefit of mankind" kind of way, but then has to modify his comments to appeal to his audience. The anti-public transport is exactly that. He realises public transport is exactly what the world needs, but his audience is car-addicted americans. Instead he proposes a tunnel cars can drive along on sleds... And later people pods, that look not-so-different from subway carriages... And later still suggests that people-pods will happen first before the car-sleds.
  - tmpz22 7y ago
    "for the benefit of mankind" but in a one-step-removed-from-eugenics kind of way. You could rationalize devastating the elderly is in the benefit of society - it's monstrous but the argument is there (especially in countries like Japan). In this way I believe Elon Musk tips the scale on whether or not he is a good person, and it absolutely tarnishes whatever legacy he ends up leaving.
    - londons_explore 7y ago
      > but in a one-step-removed-from-eugenics kind of way He'll still hand pick the people he sends to mars I bet, which in a way is disguised eugenics.
angarg12 7y ago
> "As a basis for comparison, the risk of death from C19 is vastly less than the risk of death from driving your car home." He pointed out that there have been 36,000 automotive deaths. Is he really comparing the absolute number of deaths rather than the mortality rate? Come on Elon, you can do better than this.
- vsareto 7y ago
  The media goes back and forth like this all the time. I'm not surprised people are following by example, but it is disappointing. See: largest DJIA absolute point loss/gain headlines throughout the years.
- Slimbo 7y ago
  Also, the logical conclusion of that argument is we should do more about vehicle accidents, not ignore Covid-19!
  - manicdee 7y ago
    No, the logical conclusion is that we take simple precautions every time we get in a car (which is an endemic disease), which is what keeps the fatality rate low, and we can take simple precautions to keep a pandemic from killing people. Cars are in what … top three or so causes of death alongside heart disease and cancer? Deaths from COVID-19 is the USA are only going to beat that number if the government truly screws the pooch in terms of testing, treatment and management. Wash your hands.
    - zelon88 7y ago
      Define what you mean by "screw the pooch." Currently COVID-19 response is a finely tuned balance of economic impact to death-toll. React too early and you'll experience an unacceptable economic impact. React too late and you'll experience an unacceptable death-toll. The reason this situation is so dire is not because of the lethality of the virus. It is because our medical infrastructure is not capable of treating patients in the capacity that this virus can infect them. The goal is not to prevent people from contracting COVID-19. The goal is to slow the spread of COVID-19 so that the number of cases which require hospitalization stays lower than the availability of hospital beds. If everyone got sick all at once the fatality rate would increase because people would be dying faster than they could be treated. So long as we can treat our ill faster than people become ill we can manage this situation even if 100% of humans eventually become infected. The balancing act comes into play when you also need to consider the impact to the economy. There is a saturation point that early responding countries will reach where even if they continue to increase their response they will only be increasing their economic impact without significantly decreasing the death-toll. Finding this balance is what governments are trying to do right now.
tuna-piano 7y ago
His point is like looking at grey skies and a weather radar of an approaching hurricane and saying "Just because the sun isn't out doesn't mean we should cancel our picnic on the beach!". Coronavirus is not a disaster today, it is a looming disaster. Without human intervention, Coronavirus would be pretty sure to kill millions in the US in a short period of time (1+% fatality * 33+% of the population). Yes, the chances of you or anyone you know dying today from Coronavirus is practically 0. Coronavirus is not a disaster in the US today. If a vaccine for Coronavirus was scheduled to be given to everyone tomorrow, it would not be a disaster, and we would not stop economic activity for it. But there isn't a vaccine tomorrow, so look at the virus forecast and take precautions.
- Drunk_Engineer 7y ago
  Stop with the fear-mongering, it was not going to kill millions.
  - ISL 7y ago
    That math is correct. We have no immunity, there are ~330 million people in the United States, >30% of us will catch it, and, barring advanced medical treatment > 1% of those will die. 330m x 0.3 x 0.01 = 1m . If those lower bounds are exceeded, it will be more.
  - maxlamb 7y ago
    Without human intervention, it would infect 40-70% of population. Multiply by the death rate and the fact that most hospitals would be completely overwelmed and you do get millions of death.
    - Drunk_Engineer 7y ago
      The death rate is NOT 1%. Of victims in hospital, perhaps, but not out of the general population that gets it.
      - tuna-piano 7y ago
squarefoot 7y ago
From someone who praised Musk for pretty much everything he did (except that "pedo guy" comment), I'm starting to revise my opinion on him. Either he is incredibly ill informed about the thing or he is blatantly lying to the public for fears of Tesla stocks plummeting. Someone should ask him if a driver who had a car accident can "infect" people nearby so that they'll have accidents themselves too.
- iso1210 7y ago
  To be devils advocate > Someone should ask him if a driver who had a car accident can "infect" people nearby so that they'll have accidents themselves too. That would be a pileup
  - jjeaff 7y ago
    Yes, but then the survivors of the accident don't go home and "infect" the rest of their family. Or go into work the next day and "infect" half their co-workers.
    - squarefoot 7y ago
      That was exactly my point.
    - manicdee 7y ago
      We already are infected by cars to the point that not having a car is considered special.
  - spiderfarmer 7y ago
    No, because that accident would limit itself to the last person in the pileup.
- chippy 7y ago
  just think of him as any other human you might encounter. He made his money one way that's all. Why do we listen to billionaries and think that money gives wisdom is itself worth considering.
etaioinshrdlu 7y ago
The dictator-like control he exerts over his organizations is frankly disgusting. Part of the deal in signing up is to go along with practically any decision "EM" makes. There is a monoculture there that it seems most employees agree with. Elon overrode and reversed the decision making of his subordinates in keeping all orgs completely open.
spiderfarmer 7y ago
If Musk keeps going this way it won’t be long before we will equate him with Lex Luthor instead of Tony Stark.
- threeseed 7y ago
  Many of us already have. Calling the hero diver a pedophile, bailing out his cousin's SolarCity company and allowing Autopilot to kill people are just a few of his many ethically questionable actions.
Leary 7y ago
Elon Musk and Jack Ma should have a round 2 debate on the coronavirus after their previous AI debate last year. Let's see how the Internet will react this time.
yborg 7y ago
Buzzfeed quoting an internal email they do not provide verbatim. Musk downplaying a risk is kind of his thing, so it's plausible, but without the full context this is just Musk-bashing bait.
- spiderfarmer 7y ago
  Read Musk’s tweets. The email is very plausible.
yread 7y ago
The sooner Musk buggers off to Mars the better
threeseed 7y ago
> He pointed out that there have been 36,000 automotive deaths Across the world governments spend billions on measures to curb these. It would be significantly higher if we didn't have speed zones, cameras, police etc. Maybe in Musk's world view we should cut this spending and not worry about preventible deaths.
- manicdee 7y ago
  Or maybe in Musk’s view if we did at least as much for pandemics as we do for vehicle safety there wouldn’t be an issue? In a car you drive safely and wear a seatbelt. The government mandates certain standards for designs including braking capacity and passenger safety. For diseases you can socially isolate and wash your hands. The government can properly fund disease research and control.
LargoLasskhyfv 7y ago
It's just bizniz. Has to go on, otherwise the economical distortion field collapses. Riding the wave as long as possible.
sys_64738 7y ago
He's not there psychologically.
jacknews 7y ago
"Tesla CEO noted you’re more likely to die driving a car home than from coronavirus." Haha, so basically, don't drive home?

Musk usually says whatever is most beneficial to him and his companies.

powerbroker 7y ago
All in the service of making human s a multiplanetary species. Did people think that would happen without some sacrifices along the way? Look at those astronauts. Their bone marrow is being zapped by ionizing radiation? Man-up, and keep building those rockets!
- geofft 7y ago
  > Did people think that would happen without some sacrifices along the way? There's a different between a sacrifice in service of a goal, and a sacrifice because you're too stupid to stay safe. Humankind will not fail to become a multiplanetary species even if SpaceX were to shut down entirely for a year.
justinator 7y ago
Is it news that he acts like a sociopath?

His sentiment is correct. The source for what I’m saying is a veteran virologist with 40 years of experience dealing with these exact kinds of things. A two hour interview was linked from a previous HN thread. Despite what ceejayoz might try to tell you, corona viruses do not mutate in the way that influenza does. Influenza mutates in a way that evades the immune system but retains other qualities. This is why new vaccines for the flu are always being developed. Despite the fact that corona virus family viruses are responsible for a very small amount of “common cold,” they do not exhibit this behavior. They do mutate though, which is why we are seeing two “versions” of covid-19. The ultimate meaning of all this is that once a population gains collective immunity, the virus will basically disappear. In layman's terms, the virus will go away probably between 3 to 6 months from now in the United States. If anyone tries to refute this, post actual evidence or expert testimony showing that covid-19 mutates in a similar way to influenza. Like Elon musk points out, only those with immune system problems are at risk. This includes some people of advanced age, some people with diabetes and various other people. The virus appears to kill people like many other similar illnesses: if the infection spreads to deeply within the lungs, gas transfer is interrupted and secondary bacterial infection sets in, commonly known as pneumonia. The treatment for which is antibiotics and an oxygen line. This is why you see Italy asking specifically for more oxygen equipment, in my non expert opinion. Both these treatments are widely available and do not require special skill to acquire or administer. Patients who do not benefit from these would require mechanical ventilation. The fatality rate is massively skewed toward severity because of the lack of testing. If all the benign cases were taken into account, the facility rate would be much smaller although still high enough to take seriously. Remote administration of oxygen and antibiotics, washing hands, and light self-quarantine, all very easy to do, will blunt the impact on hospitals significantly. Overall, the threat that this virus poses to most people and society in general has been overblown by the for-profit media. I would like to apologize for being so impolite in addressing this topic previously. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0896841120300469 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S089684112... https://youtu.be/WWNuDT4t-TM https://youtu.be/WWNuDT4t-TM

nopriorarrests 7y ago
>the virus will go away probably between 3 to 6 months It took 3 weeks to fuck up Italy in a royal way, so "3 to 6 month" does not instill confidence, tbh
geofft 7y ago
> In layman's terms, the virus will go away probably between 3 to 6 months from now in the United States. No one (serious) disputes this, and the number of cases in China and South Korea is already on the way down. The question is how many people it will kill along the way. > only those with immune system problems are at risk 1. What immune system problem did Wenliang Li have? (If you want to say "mostly," sure, but "only" is an unsubstantiated claim.) 2. People can become asymptomatic carriers pretty easily. That's a good reason why someone with authority over groups of people that contain some at-risk folks should attempt to prevent or reduce the frequency of such gatherings, at least until we develop collective immunity or a vaccine. (Such people include CEOs, pastors, concert organizers, politicians, etc.) Furthermore, asymptomatic carriers can pass the virus onto other asymptomatic carriers, so until we've started developing some immunity, it's a good idea for even groups of entirely not-at-risk people to limit gatherings, to reduce secondary transmission to at-risk people. People with immune system problems aren't doomed to die immediately, and it's worth taking steps to prevent them from getting infected, if you can. (Yes, people with immune system problems, older people, etc. have some chance of dying soon anyway. But everyone is going to die at some point. It is a widely-accepted moral principle that this doesn't excuse causing people to die early.) > secondary bacterial infection sets in, commonly known as pneumonia This is incorrect - SARS-CoV-2 is unusual in that it's capable of causing pneumonia on its own, without a secondary bacterial infection. Antibiotics won't help. See, for instance, https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2... . > Overall, the threat that this virus poses to most people and society in general has been overblown by the for-profit media. What's the profit angle here? What's the benefit to big media from people being unwilling to attend movies and concerts? Meanwhile, how do you explain the absolute terror in the voices of medical professionals unaffiliated with the media, such as https://twitter.com/tina_nguyen/status/1238879814863519744 https://twitter.com/tina_nguyen/status/1238879814863519744 or https://left.it/2020/03/13/covid_19-open-letter-from-italy-to-the-international-scientific-community/ https://left.it/2020/03/13/covid_19-open-letter-from-italy-t... (or, you know, Wenliang Li)?

jacquesm 7y ago

Elon Musk hasn't found a crisis yet that he did not use to put his foot in his mouth somehow. I've given up on believing that he will grow up at some point.

xivzgrev 7y ago
Exactly. Of all people I would expect him to understand what an exponential growth rate means. He clearly does, which means he has his head up his ass on this one.
- arcticfox 7y ago
  I really don't get it. The only way I can see to arrive at this conclusion with a handle on math is if you 100% write-off old people and immunocompromised as already dead. If you literally only count healthy adults, I still probably wouldn't agree with his position, but I could see how it could be argued.
  - spiderfarmer 7y ago
    I really think he doesn’t care about other people. If you discount publicity stunts, there is nothing in his legacy that convinces me otherwise.
Torwald 7y ago
Elon is right in his assessment. Why do you have to badmouth him?
- spiderfarmer 7y ago
  Elon is not more wrong than you are.
  - Torwald 7y ago
    For a negative value of wrong he probably is.

pcdoodle 7y ago

I'm going to get down voted but this is rational CEO speak.

arcticfox 7y ago
Can you elaborate on how this is rational? I'm almost always strongly in agreement with Musk, but I think he's so far off here I can't even understand it. It's ridiculous to use the current fatality numbers, the question is the potential. Does he really think cars are more dangerous in Northern Italy right now than COVID? COVID has killed about 1000 people in Lombardy (pop 10 million) in a week. That's twice the number of fatalities Lombardy generally sees from cars in a year and it's getting worse daily, despite the aggressive countermeasures. I don't see any reason why the rest of the world won't look like Lombardy unless measures are taken.
- spiderfarmer 7y ago
  You won’t get an answer. Somehow the overlap between Elon Musks cult following and Fox News viewers is larger than I expected.
- manicdee 7y ago
  Current death toll in Italy is under 2000 nationwide (2020-03-15). Nationwide road fatalities are around 3,000pa. Italy is an example of the worst case scenario of poor management and susceptible population.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

mrtksn 7y ago

It’s dangerous when cult leaders take sides in these things. He is anti-public transportation with reasons including being dangerous since you might be traveling with a serial killer and people should use insulated pods that he wants to make but the same people should not be afraid of a virus and keep working together. I admire Elon in many ways but I am terrified of his tendencies of psychopathy. According to Musk, We should use individual cars because there’s a risk to have a serial killer in the metro train but it’s statistically safe to gather with people when a deadly virus is spreading. Cult follower would buy that and amplify the message. It’s scary stuff, let’s hope the guy doesn’t turn into an anti-vaxxer or something like that(because “we need as spicies to evolve through natural selection so we can live in exoplanets” maybe?).

londons_explore 7y ago
I see him as someone who thinks in a 100% "for the benefit of mankind" kind of way, but then has to modify his comments to appeal to his audience. The anti-public transport is exactly that. He realises public transport is exactly what the world needs, but his audience is car-addicted americans. Instead he proposes a tunnel cars can drive along on sleds... And later people pods, that look not-so-different from subway carriages... And later still suggests that people-pods will happen first before the car-sleds.
- tmpz22 7y ago
  "for the benefit of mankind" but in a one-step-removed-from-eugenics kind of way. You could rationalize devastating the elderly is in the benefit of society - it's monstrous but the argument is there (especially in countries like Japan). In this way I believe Elon Musk tips the scale on whether or not he is a good person, and it absolutely tarnishes whatever legacy he ends up leaving.
  - londons_explore 7y ago
    > but in a one-step-removed-from-eugenics kind of way He'll still hand pick the people he sends to mars I bet, which in a way is disguised eugenics.

angarg12 7y ago

> "As a basis for comparison, the risk of death from C19 is vastly less than the risk of death from driving your car home." He pointed out that there have been 36,000 automotive deaths. Is he really comparing the absolute number of deaths rather than the mortality rate? Come on Elon, you can do better than this.

vsareto 7y ago
The media goes back and forth like this all the time. I'm not surprised people are following by example, but it is disappointing. See: largest DJIA absolute point loss/gain headlines throughout the years.
Slimbo 7y ago
Also, the logical conclusion of that argument is we should do more about vehicle accidents, not ignore Covid-19!
- manicdee 7y ago
  No, the logical conclusion is that we take simple precautions every time we get in a car (which is an endemic disease), which is what keeps the fatality rate low, and we can take simple precautions to keep a pandemic from killing people. Cars are in what … top three or so causes of death alongside heart disease and cancer? Deaths from COVID-19 is the USA are only going to beat that number if the government truly screws the pooch in terms of testing, treatment and management. Wash your hands.
  - zelon88 7y ago
    Define what you mean by "screw the pooch." Currently COVID-19 response is a finely tuned balance of economic impact to death-toll. React too early and you'll experience an unacceptable economic impact. React too late and you'll experience an unacceptable death-toll. The reason this situation is so dire is not because of the lethality of the virus. It is because our medical infrastructure is not capable of treating patients in the capacity that this virus can infect them. The goal is not to prevent people from contracting COVID-19. The goal is to slow the spread of COVID-19 so that the number of cases which require hospitalization stays lower than the availability of hospital beds. If everyone got sick all at once the fatality rate would increase because people would be dying faster than they could be treated. So long as we can treat our ill faster than people become ill we can manage this situation even if 100% of humans eventually become infected. The balancing act comes into play when you also need to consider the impact to the economy. There is a saturation point that early responding countries will reach where even if they continue to increase their response they will only be increasing their economic impact without significantly decreasing the death-toll. Finding this balance is what governments are trying to do right now.

tuna-piano 7y ago

His point is like looking at grey skies and a weather radar of an approaching hurricane and saying "Just because the sun isn't out doesn't mean we should cancel our picnic on the beach!". Coronavirus is not a disaster today, it is a looming disaster. Without human intervention, Coronavirus would be pretty sure to kill millions in the US in a short period of time (1+% fatality * 33+% of the population). Yes, the chances of you or anyone you know dying today from Coronavirus is practically 0. Coronavirus is not a disaster in the US today. If a vaccine for Coronavirus was scheduled to be given to everyone tomorrow, it would not be a disaster, and we would not stop economic activity for it. But there isn't a vaccine tomorrow, so look at the virus forecast and take precautions.

Drunk_Engineer 7y ago
Stop with the fear-mongering, it was not going to kill millions.
- ISL 7y ago
  That math is correct. We have no immunity, there are ~330 million people in the United States, >30% of us will catch it, and, barring advanced medical treatment > 1% of those will die. 330m x 0.3 x 0.01 = 1m . If those lower bounds are exceeded, it will be more.
- maxlamb 7y ago
  Without human intervention, it would infect 40-70% of population. Multiply by the death rate and the fact that most hospitals would be completely overwelmed and you do get millions of death.
  - Drunk_Engineer 7y ago
    The death rate is NOT 1%. Of victims in hospital, perhaps, but not out of the general population that gets it.
    - tuna-piano 7y ago

squarefoot 7y ago

From someone who praised Musk for pretty much everything he did (except that "pedo guy" comment), I'm starting to revise my opinion on him. Either he is incredibly ill informed about the thing or he is blatantly lying to the public for fears of Tesla stocks plummeting. Someone should ask him if a driver who had a car accident can "infect" people nearby so that they'll have accidents themselves too.

iso1210 7y ago
To be devils advocate > Someone should ask him if a driver who had a car accident can "infect" people nearby so that they'll have accidents themselves too. That would be a pileup
- jjeaff 7y ago
  Yes, but then the survivors of the accident don't go home and "infect" the rest of their family. Or go into work the next day and "infect" half their co-workers.
  - squarefoot 7y ago
    That was exactly my point.
  - manicdee 7y ago
    We already are infected by cars to the point that not having a car is considered special.
- spiderfarmer 7y ago
  No, because that accident would limit itself to the last person in the pileup.
chippy 7y ago
just think of him as any other human you might encounter. He made his money one way that's all. Why do we listen to billionaries and think that money gives wisdom is itself worth considering.

etaioinshrdlu 7y ago

The dictator-like control he exerts over his organizations is frankly disgusting. Part of the deal in signing up is to go along with practically any decision "EM" makes. There is a monoculture there that it seems most employees agree with. Elon overrode and reversed the decision making of his subordinates in keeping all orgs completely open.

spiderfarmer 7y ago

If Musk keeps going this way it won’t be long before we will equate him with Lex Luthor instead of Tony Stark.

threeseed 7y ago
Many of us already have. Calling the hero diver a pedophile, bailing out his cousin's SolarCity company and allowing Autopilot to kill people are just a few of his many ethically questionable actions.

Leary 7y ago

Elon Musk and Jack Ma should have a round 2 debate on the coronavirus after their previous AI debate last year. Let's see how the Internet will react this time.

yborg 7y ago

Buzzfeed quoting an internal email they do not provide verbatim. Musk downplaying a risk is kind of his thing, so it's plausible, but without the full context this is just Musk-bashing bait.

spiderfarmer 7y ago
Read Musk’s tweets. The email is very plausible.

yread 7y ago

The sooner Musk buggers off to Mars the better

threeseed 7y ago

> He pointed out that there have been 36,000 automotive deaths Across the world governments spend billions on measures to curb these. It would be significantly higher if we didn't have speed zones, cameras, police etc. Maybe in Musk's world view we should cut this spending and not worry about preventible deaths.

manicdee 7y ago
Or maybe in Musk’s view if we did at least as much for pandemics as we do for vehicle safety there wouldn’t be an issue? In a car you drive safely and wear a seatbelt. The government mandates certain standards for designs including braking capacity and passenger safety. For diseases you can socially isolate and wash your hands. The government can properly fund disease research and control.

LargoLasskhyfv 7y ago

It's just bizniz. Has to go on, otherwise the economical distortion field collapses. Riding the wave as long as possible.

sys_64738 7y ago

He's not there psychologically.

jacknews 7y ago

"Tesla CEO noted you’re more likely to die driving a car home than from coronavirus." Haha, so basically, don't drive home?