10 ms·

The problem is that the 20% or so that end up in severe or critical condition and need hospitalization are too much for the medical system to handle. The more t

The problem is that the 20% or so that end up in severe or critical condition and need hospitalization are too much for the medical system to handle. The more they can slow the spread the better they'll be able to help all those that will need medical care. In Italy the number of people that end up in ICU is 10%. Now think of the population of people that are in your area and how many intensive care beds that are available to them... do you think your local hospitals can handle 10% of that number? Probably not. This is what makes it a big issue.

mgleason_3 7y ago
“...20%...severe or critical...ICU is 10%...”? Wait, what? Source?
- hiq 7y ago
  This page mentions a study in China: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-symptoms/#mild https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-sympto... I haven't found exactly the 10% in ICU (and I'd be especially interested in the percentage of young people requiring ICU), but yeah basically 80% mild cases and the others needing assistance.
- hysan 7y ago
  Quick search brings up this: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/13/viral-image/are-80-percent-coronavirus-cases-mild/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/13/viral-imag... Which doesn’t shows that there isn’t a single consensus source yet. The article points out one source with 25.5% severe and another with 13.8% severe. Meanwhile for critical, it shows the numbers 4.7% and 6.1%. While OP isn’t entirely accurate, for off the top of the head numbers, it’s not wildly off base either it seems.
  - antaviana 7y ago
    Let's assume that untreated severe means death. Let's take the lower value 13.8%. Now let's factor in that in a developed country there are some 0,5% hospital beds total capacity. Let's say that Covid-19 can have at disposal half of those beds. If you do not do all you can to flatten the curve, you are probably looking at a 10% death rate over infected population, if not more. That's over 6 million people in the UK. IMHO, you have to do something to buy more time, although it is yet to be seen if lockdowns will be effective enough as this guy seems to be too strong.
    - antaviana 7y ago
      Oh, and I'm not counting the deaths caused by the army shooting at people panicking or killing each other not to get infected. Human nature is like that.
- roop 7y ago
  The WHO situation report for 06/Mar says: > For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. Ventilation would have to be done in the ICU, in my understanding. Source: 06/Mar/2020 Situation Report from https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...

mgleason_3 7y ago

“...20%...severe or critical...ICU is 10%...”? Wait, what? Source?

hiq 7y ago
This page mentions a study in China: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-symptoms/#mild https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-sympto... I haven't found exactly the 10% in ICU (and I'd be especially interested in the percentage of young people requiring ICU), but yeah basically 80% mild cases and the others needing assistance.
hysan 7y ago
Quick search brings up this: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/13/viral-image/are-80-percent-coronavirus-cases-mild/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/13/viral-imag... Which doesn’t shows that there isn’t a single consensus source yet. The article points out one source with 25.5% severe and another with 13.8% severe. Meanwhile for critical, it shows the numbers 4.7% and 6.1%. While OP isn’t entirely accurate, for off the top of the head numbers, it’s not wildly off base either it seems.
- antaviana 7y ago
  Let's assume that untreated severe means death. Let's take the lower value 13.8%. Now let's factor in that in a developed country there are some 0,5% hospital beds total capacity. Let's say that Covid-19 can have at disposal half of those beds. If you do not do all you can to flatten the curve, you are probably looking at a 10% death rate over infected population, if not more. That's over 6 million people in the UK. IMHO, you have to do something to buy more time, although it is yet to be seen if lockdowns will be effective enough as this guy seems to be too strong.
  - antaviana 7y ago
    Oh, and I'm not counting the deaths caused by the army shooting at people panicking or killing each other not to get infected. Human nature is like that.
roop 7y ago
The WHO situation report for 06/Mar says: > For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. Ventilation would have to be done in the ICU, in my understanding. Source: 06/Mar/2020 Situation Report from https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...