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There is however another underlying gamble. If they let the virus freely evolve and spread this might also give it more opportunities to mutate and maybe become

There is however another underlying gamble. If they let the virus freely evolve and spread this might also give it more opportunities to mutate and maybe become more lethal whereas country that try to mitigate contagion won't offer as many hosts to try random forks...

gruez 7y ago
>this might also give it more opportunities to mutate and maybe become more lethal AFAIK viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal because killing the host is bad for reproduction. random source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu >This is a common occurrence with influenza viruses: there is a tendency for pathogenic viruses to become less lethal with time, as the hosts of more dangerous strains tend to die out
- klipt 7y ago
  The first wave of the Spanish Flu mostly killed the elderly. The second wave mutated and killed young, normally healthy people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave
  - CraigJPerry 7y ago
    I see that same line being peddled out of context like this frequently these days. When you point out the young people factor you really also need to point out why that was the case and it wasn’t because of the mutation of the virus...
    - klipt 7y ago
      Wikipedia says it was a mutation, although the selective pressure on that mutation (war) is something we hopefully won't have in today's circumstances.
empath75 7y ago
There is very little evolutionary pressure to mutate to a more lethal variant and a lot of pressure to mutate to less dangerous variant. The ideal evolutionary strategy is to produce excess bodily fluids from sweating, coughing and sneezing, while not making people so sick that they lay down and stay home, let alone die. Viruses don’t get bonus points for being lethal, unlike certain video games.
- glaberficken 7y ago
  Actually this is modeled quite well in "Plague Inc" (the game) if you mutate the virus towards being too lethal it will not spread fast enough to annihilate the entire population.
  - empath75 7y ago
    Right but the point of the game is still to kill a lot of people and that’s not something that viruses care about.
hackerNoose 7y ago
If I'm not mistaken the Spanish flue actually mutated to become more lethal.

gruez 7y ago

>this might also give it more opportunities to mutate and maybe become more lethal AFAIK viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal because killing the host is bad for reproduction. random source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu >This is a common occurrence with influenza viruses: there is a tendency for pathogenic viruses to become less lethal with time, as the hosts of more dangerous strains tend to die out

klipt 7y ago
The first wave of the Spanish Flu mostly killed the elderly. The second wave mutated and killed young, normally healthy people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave
- CraigJPerry 7y ago
  I see that same line being peddled out of context like this frequently these days. When you point out the young people factor you really also need to point out why that was the case and it wasn’t because of the mutation of the virus...
  - klipt 7y ago
    Wikipedia says it was a mutation, although the selective pressure on that mutation (war) is something we hopefully won't have in today's circumstances.

empath75 7y ago

There is very little evolutionary pressure to mutate to a more lethal variant and a lot of pressure to mutate to less dangerous variant. The ideal evolutionary strategy is to produce excess bodily fluids from sweating, coughing and sneezing, while not making people so sick that they lay down and stay home, let alone die. Viruses don’t get bonus points for being lethal, unlike certain video games.

glaberficken 7y ago
Actually this is modeled quite well in "Plague Inc" (the game) if you mutate the virus towards being too lethal it will not spread fast enough to annihilate the entire population.
- empath75 7y ago
  Right but the point of the game is still to kill a lot of people and that’s not something that viruses care about.

hackerNoose 7y ago

If I'm not mistaken the Spanish flue actually mutated to become more lethal.