4 ms·
This would be true now, but over several weeks and months serious damage will be done (layoffs, bankruptcies, regulatory disruption) that will result in a perma
by tcbawo 7y ago
This would be true now, but over several weeks and months serious damage will be done (layoffs, bankruptcies, regulatory disruption) that will result in a permanent reduction in economic activity. The economy will repair itself, but the longer it takes, the less likely we will get a V-shaped recovery and the more likely it will take us much longer to get back to where we were.
- md_ 7y agoYeah. By this rationale, any recession or depression is V-shaped. Which is true (or has been so far), but it doesn't help those who suffer from it. I'm also struck by the analogy to the Smoot-Hawley act and the theory that the breakdown in international trade contributed to the Great Depression. We don't yet see restrictions on cargo trade, but: 1. We could. 2. There seems to be some imperfect analogy to the effect of remote work (in the case of knowledge workers) and paused work (in the case of retailers and the like). The degree to which a number of developed economies have come to a practical stop in recent days is shocking. Will we recover, like, eventually? Sure, quite likely. Will there be lasting effects for the economy? Definitely. (I am, however, heartened by one other analogy to the Great Depression--perhaps, as in that case, an economic decline now will serve to reduce skyrocketing inequality, though it's hard to see that as a sufficient silver lining.)