4 ms·
Please share your data and calculations for this claim. I understand how exponential growth works, and I realize there is an incubation period, but this really
by MegaButts 7y ago
Please share your data and calculations for this claim. I understand how exponential growth works, and I realize there is an incubation period, but this really just feels like unnecessary fear mongering considering we're at less than 6000 deaths worldwide as of now.
https://talksub.com/covid19 https://talksub.com/covid19
- Certhas 7y agoI agree it's hyperbolic, but the numbers are staggering and quoting the current deaths are really misleading in this respect. This will affect small percentages of everyone. A million deaths world wide, with a disease that is expected to reach 60+% of the population is not much. It's the difference in the death rate of 0.02%. In other words, if a sufficiently early intervention manages to reduce the death rate from 1% to 0.98%, that's a million lifes saved. However, the sensitive dependence on initial conditions only applies to things that happen during exponential growth. By the time a vaccine hits (according to many reputable sources about a year from now) we will be in a very different stage of the disease anyway.
- gameswithgo 7y agoSo you expect some mechanism to prevent the exponential growth then? Which?