5 ms·

Coronavirus Work from Home Model

83 points by SQL2219 7y ago

SQL2219 7y ago
Author found here: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...
- Etheryte 7y ago
  That's quite a lot of sensationalism for one article. While it's true that the situation needs to be actively dealt with, phrases like the below help no one: > Now it’s a pandemic that nobody can stop. It's incredibly weird to read that in the same article that also points out how many countries did in fact stop the spread. There are many other similar examples in the text.
  - paganel 7y ago
    There are only two countries (China, South Korea) and two city-states (Hong Kong, Singapore) that have managed to stop the spread, I wouldn't call that "many". For comparison all of Europe plus the US and Canada in North America are navigating in the dark, with no visible end in sight.
    - gamegod 7y ago
      Now you're being sensationalist - Those places that stopped their local epidemics were A) the first ones to have the epidemics, and B) took effective action to stop it. Saying there's "no visible end in sight" is meaningless in this context. If you model the epidemic, as many researchers have, you will see when the end of the epidemic is.
      - paganel 7y ago
        > If you model the epidemic, as many researchers have, you will see when the end of the epidemic is. Do you have a link to a study of said researchers saying when the epidemic will end? I'm asking because I've been following this whole epidemic thing since just before Wuhan was put into lockdown, I currently live in Europe and I don't see us getting out of the dark with the current measures being taken.
        whatshisface 7y ago
        It is generally accepted that the pandemic will end once just about everybody has caught it, because even those cases where people are thought to have re-caught it, if you assume they really happened, are a small fraction of the population.
        paganel 7y ago
        > It is generally accepted that the pandemic will end once just about everybody has caught it Yeah, that's probably how the Black Death ended in the mid-1300s, everything "ends" at some point, I was inquiring of the possibility of this "ending" without the obituary pages in local newspapers growing ten-fold in a matter of 7 or 8 days.
      - jessaustin 7y ago
        You didn't link to these many models, so I'll ask directly: when they model to the end, do 500M people die? Because that would be worthy of sensationalism. If instead, it's 1M people globally, I guess I agree with you.
    - DrNuke 7y ago
      Social distancing actually stops the spread but the Western countries will see their confirmed cases rate number drop only after 10-15 days, because they only account for symptomatic cases that underwent a test, not for real-time scans of the full population. That’s why the ‘true cases’ in the OP document are estimated at 10x-30x the confirmed cases, and governments’ lockdowns now actually aim to quarantine all of them.
      - paganel 7y ago
        I know all of that, but the first numbers that will either confirm of contradict the lockdown measures will come this Tuesday-Wednesday (for Italy), but you've still got Spain where countless madrilenos ran for the seaside this weekend (no matter the state of emergency already being instituted the day before), France actually holding elections (?!) and countless bars and restaurants still being full over the weekend, Switzerland ignoring the situation almost completely and Germany most probably fudging the numbers. The UK is a special case which I'll not get into because it's too complicated. Which is to say that yes, nobody knows where and when the light at the end of the tunnel will show up. This positivist "attitude" of first "it's just a flu" and now of "we'll get over it in no time" has really started getting onto my nerves.
        wolco 7y ago
        What is the UK situation?
        paganel 7y ago
        The government saying a couple of days ago that they're going to do almost nothing and rely on what they called "herd immunity". They've since slightly changed course and today they've announced (through unofficial channels) that they're thinking of isolating the over-70 year old people (either at home or at other designated places, it's not sure for now).
  - JauntTrooper 7y ago
    I think some countries have controlled it, but I wouldn't say they've stopped it. The moment business and society goes back to normal behavior new cases will skyrocket until we can get new cases down near 0 per day. For example South Korea diagnosed 851 cases on March 3 and 107 cases on March 14. That's a massive achievement and will undoubtedly save many lives. But there are still 100+ new cases being diagnosed every day there, and every one of those are potential vectors for future infection.
- cjbprime 7y ago
  I can't load the Docs page, but the author of this post was criticized for being a non-expert and making many statistical mistakes. Here's a model from a viral dynamics researcher: https://alhill.shinyapps.io/COVID19seir/ https://alhill.shinyapps.io/COVID19seir/
  - ForHackernews 7y ago
    HTTP 503 error. Any mirror?
- DrBazza 7y ago
  I've seen that article a few times now. Who is he, and what are his qualifications? There's nothing linked off the medium article that I can find.
unexpected 7y ago
Man, I'm trying to just copy the model and keep getting the error "The file might be unavailable to heavy traffic". Never seen that before.
- snazz 7y ago
  Yeah, Google Docs isn't really intended to handle much more than 100 or so concurrent viewers. They've optimized it for "1 million simultaneous users looking at 300k documents", not "1 million simultaneous users looking at 1 document".
  - EGreg 7y ago
    Can’t seem to access it at all, it says don’t have access to it
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- sokoloff 7y ago
  I made a copy a couple days ago (if it's the same sheet I think it is; I can't see it now either) and I just made some additional copies to share here. Here are five copies: (Fittingly, if other people also each make five copies, then we can cover the need in just a few generations...) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qLKWavPg_c9G-RGKOAn29v-jK_75D9kIedaAj2oMv80/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qLKWavPg_c9G-RGKOAn2... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18wnbmV4TiaLF3mXLbD8kno4eqA6uHLz98dIXp4lNSiA/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18wnbmV4TiaLF3mXLbD8k... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y85X64AlDE93HYJqRMpmeTLKmjO3dkqgWHeOWh9f2eA/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y85X64AlDE93HYJqRMpm... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ieS6YF0lpdvAPwliP5wXKdrwBsyJKZl76o9Tsl704TY/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ieS6YF0lpdvAPwliP5wX... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/159tPZV31fl04DyzFR8eySa_h0ccf2XiQJkeVfZ0NSyo/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/159tPZV31fl04DyzFR8ey...
mirekrusin 7y ago
Nobody seems to be taking real estimated number of infections, instead they take number of confirmed cases. Confirmed cases don't include - infected people in incubation phase, infected people with non-severe symptoms that were not scanned (age weighted on probability and mapped back on age weighted population) - then you calculate dubling on this estimate, you may have surprise when geometric growth shoots above hospital capacity. All of above can be calculated with one exception - kids will have to be excluded because we don't know if they carry/infect and don't get symptoms or they don't have symptoms because they are immune. But this calculation is easy enough to give rule of thumb estimate formula to apply to official confimed cases to get back real estimated number of infections.
- k__ 7y ago
  I also read: Infected people measured also includes dead people who would have died anyway and just happen to be infected before their death. And more than 50% of people without symptoms were tested false positive.
  - adrianN 7y ago
    It's pretty hard to get a false positive from the Coronavirus PCR test we're using. False negatives happen, but false positives are extremely rare.
    - k__ 7y ago
      Good to know, thanks.
- gamegod 7y ago
  No and no. 1) Epidemiological papers usually estimate the true number of cases, based on an estimate of the percentage of cases getting tested. The definitely include this in their outlook, and have correctly predicted the outcome of the epidemic in China. Saying "nobody" is doing that is totally incorrect. There's literally people's jobs who it is to model epidemics, who have PhDs and devoted their entire careers to it. The amount of ignorance about the quantity and quality of scientific research out there just floors me. 2) We do know now that kids are just as susceptible to be infected as adults [1]. We don't know exactly what their role in transmission is, but you could conservatively assume that they probably spread it just as much as everyone else (speculation). Some clinical characterization of cases in children are available in refs [2] and [3] [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v... [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0817-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0817-4 [3] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2003717 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2003717
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
topkai22 7y ago
The author provide a "direct link to copy" at:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/17YyCmjb2Z2QwMiRRwAb7W0vQoEAiL9Co0ARsl03dSlw/copy https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/17YyCmjb2Z2QwMiRR... However, its currently not working due to heavy traffic.
elbac 7y ago
I believe this model was created by Tomas Pueyo. His full article is well worth a read: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...
fs111 7y ago
a no spreadsheet model: https://staythefuckhome.com/ https://staythefuckhome.com/
dahart 7y ago
I’d genuinely like to hear about it if I’m off base, but I took one look at the 2nd tab named something like “When to Close The Office” and it appears to contain dozens and dozens of assumptions. I can’t imagine that this calculation is meaningful in any way. The errors don’t average out here; the curve we’re modeling is exponential, tiny errors in assumptions can lead to roughly 100% error in the output. Isn’t there a word for when a lot of math and complexity and specific numbers with names imbue an article with some extra sense of being true or having authority? The virus is blooming right now. If a business intends to close or start a work-from-home phase, then it should be happening right now, there’s no calculation to make and no risk model that’s going to tell you to wait another week or two. There are legitimate reasons some businesses shouldn’t close, but those reasons don’t depend on how many people live nearby, how many are currently infected, etc..
- contravariant 7y ago
  >Isn’t there a word for when a lot of math and complexity and specific numbers with names imbue an article with some extra sense of being true or having authority? That's Data Science isn't it?
  - ghaff 7y ago
    Also forecasting adoption of new technologies when there's a lot of uncertainty about basic assumptions. Organizations that do this sort of thing regularly have these sophisticated methodologies and models. But so much comes down to qualitative assessments.
- mezzode 7y ago
  >Isn’t there a word for when a lot of math and complexity and specific numbers with names imbue an article with some extra sense of being true or having authority? Quantitative fallacy?
  - dahart 7y ago
    That’s not bad, and I think it does apply here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy
robtaylor 7y ago
Before the pivot to Covid content, the previous articles from the same creator included ... "How to Deliver Your Funny Speech" "What The Rise of Skywalker Can Teach about Storytelling" "8 Reasons Why Your Ad Attribution Approach Is Wrong" "What I Learned Building a Horoscope That Blew Up on Facebook" Not for me, Clive.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  FWIW, there's no sophisticated science in that Medium article. All of the things in there come from basic understanding of how exponents work, plus thinking for 10 seconds about what the graphs from Wuhan from February showed. Author's biggest contribution is quality explanation of these points that's comprehensible by a wide audience. That doesn't require skills in epidemiology, but precisely the ones the author has.
mirrorlake 7y ago
Preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed with this disease is like rapidly accumulating compound interest, and the dividends are people's lives. Early investment is monumentally better than late investment.
jonathanstrange 7y ago
As someone specialized in the moral aspects of decision theory I unfortunately find this dubious. Any decision model makes value judgments and trade-offs between them, and normally you would have to elicit those judgments from the decision maker. I don't understand how this could work without taking the individual value judgments into account, especially since the long-term consequences of home work differ from business to business.
stared 7y ago
I find "When to Close The Office" with "risk you want to take" set at 1% profoundly disturbing. Sure, from a company perspective it makes sense: 2 weeks of medical leave for everyone now + a few new hires later. If you multiply it by the risk factor, it may make good business sense. Yet, if there is an infection, it will spread to their families, and to other people, accelerating the infection spread (and potentially killing orders of magnitude more people than within office). It is irresponsible, to put it mildly.
snvzz 7y ago
Mildly related, DRACO[0] needs funding. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRACO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRACO

83 points by SQL2219 7y ago

Author found here: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...

Etheryte 7y ago
That's quite a lot of sensationalism for one article. While it's true that the situation needs to be actively dealt with, phrases like the below help no one: > Now it’s a pandemic that nobody can stop. It's incredibly weird to read that in the same article that also points out how many countries did in fact stop the spread. There are many other similar examples in the text.
- paganel 7y ago
  There are only two countries (China, South Korea) and two city-states (Hong Kong, Singapore) that have managed to stop the spread, I wouldn't call that "many". For comparison all of Europe plus the US and Canada in North America are navigating in the dark, with no visible end in sight.
  - gamegod 7y ago
    Now you're being sensationalist - Those places that stopped their local epidemics were A) the first ones to have the epidemics, and B) took effective action to stop it. Saying there's "no visible end in sight" is meaningless in this context. If you model the epidemic, as many researchers have, you will see when the end of the epidemic is.
    - paganel 7y ago
      > If you model the epidemic, as many researchers have, you will see when the end of the epidemic is. Do you have a link to a study of said researchers saying when the epidemic will end? I'm asking because I've been following this whole epidemic thing since just before Wuhan was put into lockdown, I currently live in Europe and I don't see us getting out of the dark with the current measures being taken.
      - whatshisface 7y ago
        It is generally accepted that the pandemic will end once just about everybody has caught it, because even those cases where people are thought to have re-caught it, if you assume they really happened, are a small fraction of the population.
        paganel 7y ago
        > It is generally accepted that the pandemic will end once just about everybody has caught it Yeah, that's probably how the Black Death ended in the mid-1300s, everything "ends" at some point, I was inquiring of the possibility of this "ending" without the obituary pages in local newspapers growing ten-fold in a matter of 7 or 8 days.
    - jessaustin 7y ago
      You didn't link to these many models, so I'll ask directly: when they model to the end, do 500M people die? Because that would be worthy of sensationalism. If instead, it's 1M people globally, I guess I agree with you.
  - DrNuke 7y ago
    Social distancing actually stops the spread but the Western countries will see their confirmed cases rate number drop only after 10-15 days, because they only account for symptomatic cases that underwent a test, not for real-time scans of the full population. That’s why the ‘true cases’ in the OP document are estimated at 10x-30x the confirmed cases, and governments’ lockdowns now actually aim to quarantine all of them.
    - paganel 7y ago
      I know all of that, but the first numbers that will either confirm of contradict the lockdown measures will come this Tuesday-Wednesday (for Italy), but you've still got Spain where countless madrilenos ran for the seaside this weekend (no matter the state of emergency already being instituted the day before), France actually holding elections (?!) and countless bars and restaurants still being full over the weekend, Switzerland ignoring the situation almost completely and Germany most probably fudging the numbers. The UK is a special case which I'll not get into because it's too complicated. Which is to say that yes, nobody knows where and when the light at the end of the tunnel will show up. This positivist "attitude" of first "it's just a flu" and now of "we'll get over it in no time" has really started getting onto my nerves.
      - wolco 7y ago
        What is the UK situation?
        paganel 7y ago
        The government saying a couple of days ago that they're going to do almost nothing and rely on what they called "herd immunity". They've since slightly changed course and today they've announced (through unofficial channels) that they're thinking of isolating the over-70 year old people (either at home or at other designated places, it's not sure for now).
- JauntTrooper 7y ago
  I think some countries have controlled it, but I wouldn't say they've stopped it. The moment business and society goes back to normal behavior new cases will skyrocket until we can get new cases down near 0 per day. For example South Korea diagnosed 851 cases on March 3 and 107 cases on March 14. That's a massive achievement and will undoubtedly save many lives. But there are still 100+ new cases being diagnosed every day there, and every one of those are potential vectors for future infection.
cjbprime 7y ago
I can't load the Docs page, but the author of this post was criticized for being a non-expert and making many statistical mistakes. Here's a model from a viral dynamics researcher: https://alhill.shinyapps.io/COVID19seir/ https://alhill.shinyapps.io/COVID19seir/
- ForHackernews 7y ago
  HTTP 503 error. Any mirror?
DrBazza 7y ago
I've seen that article a few times now. Who is he, and what are his qualifications? There's nothing linked off the medium article that I can find.

unexpected 7y ago

Man, I'm trying to just copy the model and keep getting the error "The file might be unavailable to heavy traffic". Never seen that before.

snazz 7y ago
Yeah, Google Docs isn't really intended to handle much more than 100 or so concurrent viewers. They've optimized it for "1 million simultaneous users looking at 300k documents", not "1 million simultaneous users looking at 1 document".
- EGreg 7y ago
  Can’t seem to access it at all, it says don’t have access to it
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
sokoloff 7y ago
I made a copy a couple days ago (if it's the same sheet I think it is; I can't see it now either) and I just made some additional copies to share here. Here are five copies: (Fittingly, if other people also each make five copies, then we can cover the need in just a few generations...) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qLKWavPg_c9G-RGKOAn29v-jK_75D9kIedaAj2oMv80/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qLKWavPg_c9G-RGKOAn2... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18wnbmV4TiaLF3mXLbD8kno4eqA6uHLz98dIXp4lNSiA/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18wnbmV4TiaLF3mXLbD8k... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y85X64AlDE93HYJqRMpmeTLKmjO3dkqgWHeOWh9f2eA/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y85X64AlDE93HYJqRMpm... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ieS6YF0lpdvAPwliP5wXKdrwBsyJKZl76o9Tsl704TY/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ieS6YF0lpdvAPwliP5wX... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/159tPZV31fl04DyzFR8eySa_h0ccf2XiQJkeVfZ0NSyo/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/159tPZV31fl04DyzFR8ey...

mirekrusin 7y ago

Nobody seems to be taking real estimated number of infections, instead they take number of confirmed cases. Confirmed cases don't include - infected people in incubation phase, infected people with non-severe symptoms that were not scanned (age weighted on probability and mapped back on age weighted population) - then you calculate dubling on this estimate, you may have surprise when geometric growth shoots above hospital capacity. All of above can be calculated with one exception - kids will have to be excluded because we don't know if they carry/infect and don't get symptoms or they don't have symptoms because they are immune. But this calculation is easy enough to give rule of thumb estimate formula to apply to official confimed cases to get back real estimated number of infections.

k__ 7y ago
I also read: Infected people measured also includes dead people who would have died anyway and just happen to be infected before their death. And more than 50% of people without symptoms were tested false positive.
- adrianN 7y ago
  It's pretty hard to get a false positive from the Coronavirus PCR test we're using. False negatives happen, but false positives are extremely rare.
  - k__ 7y ago
    Good to know, thanks.
gamegod 7y ago
No and no. 1) Epidemiological papers usually estimate the true number of cases, based on an estimate of the percentage of cases getting tested. The definitely include this in their outlook, and have correctly predicted the outcome of the epidemic in China. Saying "nobody" is doing that is totally incorrect. There's literally people's jobs who it is to model epidemics, who have PhDs and devoted their entire careers to it. The amount of ignorance about the quantity and quality of scientific research out there just floors me. 2) We do know now that kids are just as susceptible to be infected as adults [1]. We don't know exactly what their role in transmission is, but you could conservatively assume that they probably spread it just as much as everyone else (speculation). Some clinical characterization of cases in children are available in refs [2] and [3] [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v... [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0817-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0817-4 [3] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2003717 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2003717

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

topkai22 7y ago

The author provide a "direct link to copy" at:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/17YyCmjb2Z2QwMiRRwAb7W0vQoEAiL9Co0ARsl03dSlw/copy https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/17YyCmjb2Z2QwMiRR... However, its currently not working due to heavy traffic.

elbac 7y ago

I believe this model was created by Tomas Pueyo. His full article is well worth a read: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...

fs111 7y ago

a no spreadsheet model: https://staythefuckhome.com/ https://staythefuckhome.com/

dahart 7y ago

I’d genuinely like to hear about it if I’m off base, but I took one look at the 2nd tab named something like “When to Close The Office” and it appears to contain dozens and dozens of assumptions. I can’t imagine that this calculation is meaningful in any way. The errors don’t average out here; the curve we’re modeling is exponential, tiny errors in assumptions can lead to roughly 100% error in the output. Isn’t there a word for when a lot of math and complexity and specific numbers with names imbue an article with some extra sense of being true or having authority? The virus is blooming right now. If a business intends to close or start a work-from-home phase, then it should be happening right now, there’s no calculation to make and no risk model that’s going to tell you to wait another week or two. There are legitimate reasons some businesses shouldn’t close, but those reasons don’t depend on how many people live nearby, how many are currently infected, etc..

contravariant 7y ago
>Isn’t there a word for when a lot of math and complexity and specific numbers with names imbue an article with some extra sense of being true or having authority? That's Data Science isn't it?
- ghaff 7y ago
  Also forecasting adoption of new technologies when there's a lot of uncertainty about basic assumptions. Organizations that do this sort of thing regularly have these sophisticated methodologies and models. But so much comes down to qualitative assessments.
mezzode 7y ago
>Isn’t there a word for when a lot of math and complexity and specific numbers with names imbue an article with some extra sense of being true or having authority? Quantitative fallacy?
- dahart 7y ago
  That’s not bad, and I think it does apply here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy

robtaylor 7y ago

Before the pivot to Covid content, the previous articles from the same creator included ... "How to Deliver Your Funny Speech" "What The Rise of Skywalker Can Teach about Storytelling" "8 Reasons Why Your Ad Attribution Approach Is Wrong" "What I Learned Building a Horoscope That Blew Up on Facebook" Not for me, Clive.

TeMPOraL 7y ago
FWIW, there's no sophisticated science in that Medium article. All of the things in there come from basic understanding of how exponents work, plus thinking for 10 seconds about what the graphs from Wuhan from February showed. Author's biggest contribution is quality explanation of these points that's comprehensible by a wide audience. That doesn't require skills in epidemiology, but precisely the ones the author has.

mirrorlake 7y ago

Preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed with this disease is like rapidly accumulating compound interest, and the dividends are people's lives. Early investment is monumentally better than late investment.

jonathanstrange 7y ago

As someone specialized in the moral aspects of decision theory I unfortunately find this dubious. Any decision model makes value judgments and trade-offs between them, and normally you would have to elicit those judgments from the decision maker. I don't understand how this could work without taking the individual value judgments into account, especially since the long-term consequences of home work differ from business to business.

stared 7y ago

I find "When to Close The Office" with "risk you want to take" set at 1% profoundly disturbing. Sure, from a company perspective it makes sense: 2 weeks of medical leave for everyone now + a few new hires later. If you multiply it by the risk factor, it may make good business sense. Yet, if there is an infection, it will spread to their families, and to other people, accelerating the infection spread (and potentially killing orders of magnitude more people than within office). It is irresponsible, to put it mildly.

snvzz 7y ago

Mildly related, DRACO[0] needs funding. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRACO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRACO