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There's a very real risk of economic cataclysm, which will roil through the economy and hit many people very hard, causing all sorts of disruptions, negative he

by jariel 7y ago

There's a very real risk of economic cataclysm, which will roil through the economy and hit many people very hard, causing all sorts of disruptions, negative health outcomes across the board. Tourism, restaurants, entertainment is 3-7% of the economy (more in Italy) and layoffs are coming very swiftly. Taxes fall, unemployment payments spike, it rolls over into other parts of the economy, bad loans, credit dries up, stock markets dive, investment plummets. The rich will lose some net-worth it will hit the poor physically in many ways, for example, millions more left without health insurance in the middle of a crisis. Taiwan and S. Korea have been able to keep a lid on the virus without getting draconian, maybe we can follow their example. But there's quite a lot of risk in these 'lockdown' decisions, it's not just about immediate health outcomes. So it's not an easy decision. I should add, the letter is very well written, it's oddly not dramatic, given the gravity of the situation.

starfallg 7y ago
Do you think we in the UK will be insulated by this global event just because we didn't close our schools? Even if our hotels are open, who will come? This will only delay our recovery once the dust settles. No-one is asking for a complete shutdown right now. In fact, the whole reason to start implementing more serious measures (like school closures) now is to prevent the type of lockdown we are seeing in Italy and Wuhan as a result of the health system being overrun.
- jariel 7y ago
  "Even if our hotels are open, who will come?" >>> only about 20% of hotel stays are international. [1] "just because we didn't close our schools" >> its far, far beyond schools. "No-one is asking for a complete shutdown right now." >> Well, public events, Football, and almost all Entertainment are shut down. Restaurants are down 50%. Taxis, trains, public transport. Tanning parlors. Yoga. Fitness clubs. Swimming pools. Theaters. Shopping malls, high-street - they're all getting clobbered, without 'total shut down' and it's going to hurt. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/564673/accommodation-domestic-international-tourists-overnight-stays/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/564673/accommodation-dom...
  - starfallg 7y ago
    >only about 20% of hotel stays are international. Over 60% here in London. https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:xnYJiWZXLNwJ:https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/visitor_accommodation_-_working_paper_88.pdf+&cd=10&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk&client=ms-android-sonymobile-rev1 https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:xnYJiW... >its far, far beyond schools. I was only using that as an example of one of the things that will cause a big change in people's seriousness in viewing the epidemic the government hasn't done yet. >they're all getting clobbered, without 'total shut down' and it's going to hurt. And a complete lockdown is going to hurt even worse, which would happen when the health service gets overrun. The issue is that this can happen at any time and without much warning. Our visibility is lagging behind the spread of the virus by at least the incubation period. By the time the latest batch of people symptoms end up in hospital, our response is already behind the curve. The UK has been testing more than a lot of European countries but it is trailing places like South Korea and Taiwan by a wide margin.
    - nicoburns 7y ago
      > which would happen when the health service gets overrun. But the point is to prevent the health service from getting overrun. By the time it is, it's too late because you'll already have an order of magnitude more people who are infected but not yet showing symptoms.
      - starfallg 7y ago
        Yeah, for sure, but how are you able to predict when the health service will be overrun when the current testing is lagging spread by at least a few day, if not more. But the time the sirens go off, it's already too late.
        nicoburns 7y ago
        Well look at Italy. In terms or reported numbers, we're about a week behind when their health service was overrun. So I'd say within 1-2 weeks max. Which is why we ought to be putting in restrictions now.
throw0101a 7y ago
> There's a very real risk of economic cataclysm, which will roil through the economy and hit many people very hard, causing all sorts of disruptions, negative health outcomes across the board. Boost spending through government stimulus programs, loosened unemployment benefits, or simply writing cheques to people directly. Ten-year bond rates for most major industrialized countries are ridiculously low, and even negative in some cases: * https://tradingeconomics.com/bonds https://tradingeconomics.com/bonds There's no sense in being cheap at this point in time.
- jariel 7y ago
  "or simply writing cheques to people directly" "There's no sense in being cheap at this point in time." See this is the problem -> money does not grow on trees. We can't just 'keep writing cheques'.
  - throw0101a 7y ago
    Given that some countries have negative bond rates: sure you can. It's not like this cash is doing much of anything else.

by jariel 7y ago

starfallg 7y ago

Do you think we in the UK will be insulated by this global event just because we didn't close our schools? Even if our hotels are open, who will come? This will only delay our recovery once the dust settles. No-one is asking for a complete shutdown right now. In fact, the whole reason to start implementing more serious measures (like school closures) now is to prevent the type of lockdown we are seeing in Italy and Wuhan as a result of the health system being overrun.

jariel 7y ago
"Even if our hotels are open, who will come?" >>> only about 20% of hotel stays are international. [1] "just because we didn't close our schools" >> its far, far beyond schools. "No-one is asking for a complete shutdown right now." >> Well, public events, Football, and almost all Entertainment are shut down. Restaurants are down 50%. Taxis, trains, public transport. Tanning parlors. Yoga. Fitness clubs. Swimming pools. Theaters. Shopping malls, high-street - they're all getting clobbered, without 'total shut down' and it's going to hurt. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/564673/accommodation-domestic-international-tourists-overnight-stays/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/564673/accommodation-dom...
- starfallg 7y ago
  >only about 20% of hotel stays are international. Over 60% here in London. https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:xnYJiWZXLNwJ:https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/visitor_accommodation_-_working_paper_88.pdf+&cd=10&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk&client=ms-android-sonymobile-rev1 https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:xnYJiW... >its far, far beyond schools. I was only using that as an example of one of the things that will cause a big change in people's seriousness in viewing the epidemic the government hasn't done yet. >they're all getting clobbered, without 'total shut down' and it's going to hurt. And a complete lockdown is going to hurt even worse, which would happen when the health service gets overrun. The issue is that this can happen at any time and without much warning. Our visibility is lagging behind the spread of the virus by at least the incubation period. By the time the latest batch of people symptoms end up in hospital, our response is already behind the curve. The UK has been testing more than a lot of European countries but it is trailing places like South Korea and Taiwan by a wide margin.
  - nicoburns 7y ago
    > which would happen when the health service gets overrun. But the point is to prevent the health service from getting overrun. By the time it is, it's too late because you'll already have an order of magnitude more people who are infected but not yet showing symptoms.
    - starfallg 7y ago
      Yeah, for sure, but how are you able to predict when the health service will be overrun when the current testing is lagging spread by at least a few day, if not more. But the time the sirens go off, it's already too late.
      - nicoburns 7y ago
        Well look at Italy. In terms or reported numbers, we're about a week behind when their health service was overrun. So I'd say within 1-2 weeks max. Which is why we ought to be putting in restrictions now.

throw0101a 7y ago

> There's a very real risk of economic cataclysm, which will roil through the economy and hit many people very hard, causing all sorts of disruptions, negative health outcomes across the board. Boost spending through government stimulus programs, loosened unemployment benefits, or simply writing cheques to people directly. Ten-year bond rates for most major industrialized countries are ridiculously low, and even negative in some cases: * https://tradingeconomics.com/bonds https://tradingeconomics.com/bonds There's no sense in being cheap at this point in time.

jariel 7y ago
"or simply writing cheques to people directly" "There's no sense in being cheap at this point in time." See this is the problem -> money does not grow on trees. We can't just 'keep writing cheques'.
- throw0101a 7y ago
  Given that some countries have negative bond rates: sure you can. It's not like this cash is doing much of anything else.