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The strategy of all countries is to flatten the curve to enable their respective health services to cope. My concern is that the U.K. is now proposing isolation

The strategy of all countries is to flatten the curve to enable their respective health services to cope. My concern is that the U.K. is now proposing isolation for the over 70s “within weeks”: this demographic has been shown to be at serious risk as of now, when looking at the experiences of China, Italy and Spain. Further, in the UK, testing is only now being carried out on cases serious enough to hospitalize, so I do not understand how the UK government can have confidence in its data as to the spread of the virus.

simonh 7y ago
As you say, the UK government's strategy is to isolate those most vulnerable first, exactly as is the main point of this letter. It's just a mater of timing. The letter isn't asking them to do anything they haven't already committed to doing. On timing, the longer people are in isolation, the harder it is to maintain it. Vulnerable people might need to remain isolated for 3 to 4 months. Many of them will inevitably end up compromising their isolation during that time, so it's vital that the isolation period does not start earlier than it needs to. It's trading increased exposure risk now when the virus has a very low prevalence, for better isolation later when the virus is everywhere.
- tomatocracy 7y ago
  Yes - and moreover, the very old and frail living on their own are vulnerable to many things other than Covid. Having a neighbour check in on them every day, for example, might mean that if they have a fall then they are found before they die from injuries or lack of food or water. There is very real risk in isolating these people for months that this type of protection is lost and costs more lives than it saves so there is a complex tradeoff involved.
  - CaptArmchair 7y ago
    It's even more complex then that. Even if you do end up isolating the elderly, there will still be an increased influx of patients who will take up hospital beds. At that point, the problem isn't just an elder person taking a fall, it literally affects anyone who contracts another illness, gets a stroke, a heart attack, organ failure, a traffic accident,...

simonh 7y ago

As you say, the UK government's strategy is to isolate those most vulnerable first, exactly as is the main point of this letter. It's just a mater of timing. The letter isn't asking them to do anything they haven't already committed to doing. On timing, the longer people are in isolation, the harder it is to maintain it. Vulnerable people might need to remain isolated for 3 to 4 months. Many of them will inevitably end up compromising their isolation during that time, so it's vital that the isolation period does not start earlier than it needs to. It's trading increased exposure risk now when the virus has a very low prevalence, for better isolation later when the virus is everywhere.

tomatocracy 7y ago
Yes - and moreover, the very old and frail living on their own are vulnerable to many things other than Covid. Having a neighbour check in on them every day, for example, might mean that if they have a fall then they are found before they die from injuries or lack of food or water. There is very real risk in isolating these people for months that this type of protection is lost and costs more lives than it saves so there is a complex tradeoff involved.
- CaptArmchair 7y ago
  It's even more complex then that. Even if you do end up isolating the elderly, there will still be an increased influx of patients who will take up hospital beds. At that point, the problem isn't just an elder person taking a fall, it literally affects anyone who contracts another illness, gets a stroke, a heart attack, organ failure, a traffic accident,...