4 ms·

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lo

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. No, that is almost entirely wrong. You can certainly disagree with their position but you should at least present it accurately. Their position is that this is a pandemic (i.e. spread too widely to eradicate this year), we have moved from the contain phase to the delay phase, and their plan is to gradually introduce measures up to full quarantine rather than jumping to lockdowns straight away. For example here are the measures planned in coming weeks: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/ https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantine... If they manage to flatten the curve by timing measures, and if there is a second outbreak this winter, it may well save lives. The Chief Scientific Adviser and other experts are not horrified, they came up with the plan and are defending it, so no, ‘experts’ are not horrified, though some disagree (which is fine). I’d be more worried living in the US right now given the mixture of denial and bluster which has been the response so far.

sarakayakomzin 7y ago
>If they manage to flatten the curve by timing measures, and if there is a second outbreak this winter, it may well save lives. The Chief Scientific Adviser and other experts are not horrified, they came up with the plan and are defending it, so no, ‘experts’ are not horrified, though some disagree (which is fine). the question then comes down to if you think this will be better or worse than other methods. I don't understand why you were so hard on the parent comment when you reduced the question and still failed to answer it. >I’d be more worried living in the US right now given the mixture of denial and bluster which has been the response so far. yes, it is a dumpster fire. but that doesn't answer the question either.
xorcist 7y ago
Europe right now shows the full spectrum of possible solutions. It is not as if draconian lockdowns are the only alternative. Look at Germany, for example. They've been using testing quite effectively and are also looking at primarily isolating vulnerable people. It will take some time before we know more about how successful these strategies are. Different countries are at different phases in the infection spread which makes comparisons unfair. If anything, the politically easy decision would be the lockdowns which shows voters strong leaders capable of "doing something" (even if the value of this "something" is at best unclear).
- lazyjones 7y ago
  Europe is a chaotic mess. Germany is preventing exports of urgently needed masks and other medical supplies to Switzerland and Austria, Austria announced that no curfews were coming yesterday and today Tirol is under curfew and harsh curfew-like restrictions will be in place from Monday in all of Austria. I'm not really sure what the strategy is, the WHO recommendations after their China mission have been known for 3 weeks and there is no recommended middle ground.
  - grey-area 7y ago
    Not sure I agree with your assessment. Germany is doing pretty well at just 9 deaths on 4.5k cases. The WHO is not the only or the best source of recommendations, nor is this over in China. I'd be very surprised if they don't see another outbreak there now that this is a pandemic it will spread to Africa for example, which has a huge no of Chinese working there who will bring it back.
    - yulaow 7y ago
      Germany is also not reporting deaths from coronavirus if the patients had also other pre-existing conditions just to keep the number artificially low.
      - martinpw 7y ago
        Do you have a reference for that?
      - svara 7y ago
        That's false, all recorded deaths do far were reported to have preexisting conditions.
    - pasabagi 7y ago
      I'm not sure german successses are anything to do with action on the part of the government. I've been consistently surprised by the abrupt reversals in policy - with border controls or school closures going from 'out of the question' to 'tomorrow' with very little time elapsed. I think much of Europe is a little bit like this. Germany will probably be relatively well off because German culture is fairly anti-social, Germans are typically very healthy, and the healthcare system is somewhat robust. However, I haven't seen any sign whatsoever of a consistent or coherent response to the coronavirus. I expect whatever response eventually percolates out will be fairly rational, since german civil servants are well-paid and competent, but so far, it's been all over the place.

sarakayakomzin 7y ago

>If they manage to flatten the curve by timing measures, and if there is a second outbreak this winter, it may well save lives. The Chief Scientific Adviser and other experts are not horrified, they came up with the plan and are defending it, so no, ‘experts’ are not horrified, though some disagree (which is fine). the question then comes down to if you think this will be better or worse than other methods. I don't understand why you were so hard on the parent comment when you reduced the question and still failed to answer it. >I’d be more worried living in the US right now given the mixture of denial and bluster which has been the response so far. yes, it is a dumpster fire. but that doesn't answer the question either.

xorcist 7y ago

Europe right now shows the full spectrum of possible solutions. It is not as if draconian lockdowns are the only alternative. Look at Germany, for example. They've been using testing quite effectively and are also looking at primarily isolating vulnerable people. It will take some time before we know more about how successful these strategies are. Different countries are at different phases in the infection spread which makes comparisons unfair. If anything, the politically easy decision would be the lockdowns which shows voters strong leaders capable of "doing something" (even if the value of this "something" is at best unclear).

lazyjones 7y ago
Europe is a chaotic mess. Germany is preventing exports of urgently needed masks and other medical supplies to Switzerland and Austria, Austria announced that no curfews were coming yesterday and today Tirol is under curfew and harsh curfew-like restrictions will be in place from Monday in all of Austria. I'm not really sure what the strategy is, the WHO recommendations after their China mission have been known for 3 weeks and there is no recommended middle ground.
- grey-area 7y ago
  Not sure I agree with your assessment. Germany is doing pretty well at just 9 deaths on 4.5k cases. The WHO is not the only or the best source of recommendations, nor is this over in China. I'd be very surprised if they don't see another outbreak there now that this is a pandemic it will spread to Africa for example, which has a huge no of Chinese working there who will bring it back.
  - yulaow 7y ago
    Germany is also not reporting deaths from coronavirus if the patients had also other pre-existing conditions just to keep the number artificially low.
    - martinpw 7y ago
      Do you have a reference for that?
    - svara 7y ago
      That's false, all recorded deaths do far were reported to have preexisting conditions.
  - pasabagi 7y ago
    I'm not sure german successses are anything to do with action on the part of the government. I've been consistently surprised by the abrupt reversals in policy - with border controls or school closures going from 'out of the question' to 'tomorrow' with very little time elapsed. I think much of Europe is a little bit like this. Germany will probably be relatively well off because German culture is fairly anti-social, Germans are typically very healthy, and the healthcare system is somewhat robust. However, I haven't seen any sign whatsoever of a consistent or coherent response to the coronavirus. I expect whatever response eventually percolates out will be fairly rational, since german civil servants are well-paid and competent, but so far, it's been all over the place.