I don't think so. There was a surveillance study in I believe Guangdong province where they tested tons of random people, and compared the positive rate with c

I don't think so. There was a surveillance study in I believe Guangdong province where they tested tons of random people, and compared the positive rate with cases/population, and found that they had detected most all of them. Don't have the link at hand, sorry. There was also a statistical analysis of the Diamond Princess cases. That produced an estimate that about 17% of infections were asymptomatic. [1] It's possible that there are less asymptomatic cases among the older population, but between the Guangdong and the Diamond Princess data, I doubt it. The 3.4% CFR that everyone is looking at is also dependent on some reasonably adequate level of medical care. If this thing blows up, most people are going to be on their own, and in the absence of a miracle drug that is widely available (maybe Chloroquine?), the fatality rate with home care I would expect to be something like 10-15%. [1] https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.E...