10 ms·

That may explain but certainly not excuse. We submit our individual freedoms to governments we vote for to be able to act better than our ingrained short term r

That may explain but certainly not excuse. We submit our individual freedoms to governments we vote for to be able to act better than our ingrained short term reflexes. Best and brightest and all. It's also not necessarily an indictment of democracy- Taiwan clearly has been on the ball here. But it is absolutely an indictment of our current state of affairs in many western countries.

iagovar 7y ago
Spanish lead epidemiologist was telling us a few weeks ago that nothing was going to happen here. I did my numbers back in December. In January was already pretty worried, but I'm not an expert I thought. Maybe there's something I'm not taking in account. So I kept reading about models and stats. Not that difficult. Ran my numbers again and again, yep it seemed pretty bad no matter what I cheated myself with parameters etc. Then it came to Spain. I was pretty nervous by that time, kept it cool, tried to warn to people that this was no joke, everyone thought that I was a bit crazy and alarmist. Days passed, government went absolutely erratic and irreposible, lost all my trust in the lead epidemiologist and the ministry of Healthcare, not to mention the HUGE amount of healthcare workers that were insisting that it was just a flu and some of us were alarmists for two month and turned 360 in a few days. Too late. Now I'm in it.
- sjy 7y ago
  What “numbers” were you doing back in December? The virus had not spread outside of Wuhan, or been named or sequenced, by that point.
  - mraudiobook_com 7y ago
    Sounds like a Spanish Greg Maxwell.
  - iagovar 7y ago
    Maybe my memory is fuzzy, but the moment I've got the first reports about R0 incubation period etc. I have to say that some time ago I had a course of applied statistics with epidemiology exercises so I was not really an alien to it, but not an expert either.

iagovar 7y ago

Spanish lead epidemiologist was telling us a few weeks ago that nothing was going to happen here. I did my numbers back in December. In January was already pretty worried, but I'm not an expert I thought. Maybe there's something I'm not taking in account. So I kept reading about models and stats. Not that difficult. Ran my numbers again and again, yep it seemed pretty bad no matter what I cheated myself with parameters etc. Then it came to Spain. I was pretty nervous by that time, kept it cool, tried to warn to people that this was no joke, everyone thought that I was a bit crazy and alarmist. Days passed, government went absolutely erratic and irreposible, lost all my trust in the lead epidemiologist and the ministry of Healthcare, not to mention the HUGE amount of healthcare workers that were insisting that it was just a flu and some of us were alarmists for two month and turned 360 in a few days. Too late. Now I'm in it.

sjy 7y ago
What “numbers” were you doing back in December? The virus had not spread outside of Wuhan, or been named or sequenced, by that point.
- mraudiobook_com 7y ago
  Sounds like a Spanish Greg Maxwell.
- iagovar 7y ago
  Maybe my memory is fuzzy, but the moment I've got the first reports about R0 incubation period etc. I have to say that some time ago I had a course of applied statistics with epidemiology exercises so I was not really an alien to it, but not an expert either.