That argument might work at a national level. It works less well at a community level, and I think stops working for any community once there is observed commun

That argument might work at a national level. It works less well at a community level, and I think stops working for any community once there is observed community spread there. After that point it is mathematically clear that you're going to have deaths, and that similarly situated communities who react days later will have a lot more deaths. At that point the political calculus you're arguing for flips the other way around and encourages an over-reaction. ... except innumeracy is so common, we're not seeing too much evidence of that happening.