4 ms·

How much difference is there between the r0 value of 2 and that of 3? Maybe we can't flatten the curve to fit it under the threshold, but we can probably reduce

• nostrademons 7y ago
  Trevor Bedford had a tweet that indicated a 25% reduction in social contacts results in a 50% reduction in cases after 1 month: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1237934525281259521 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1237934525281259521 I think it's very likely that Wuhan or Italy style lockdowns will bring r0 under 1, based on the experience in Wuhan and Italy. That means the disease eventually dies out. Because it's endemic elsewhere in the world, it'll eventually be reintroduced and we get multiple waves, until eventually enough people have had it to generate herd immunity. But each wave starts back at the "containment" phase, with contact tracing and individual isolation, so combining lockdown + those measures + travel restrictions could probably buy enough time for a vaccine.
  • WA 7y ago
    - For how long do you have to keep your containment measures up? - Do you have to introduce new containment measures with every wave of reinfection? - How many waves / months of total are required to achieve enough herd immunity while keeping the hospitals within capacity?
    • nostrademons 7y ago
      Presumably the answers to these are: - Until a vaccine is developed. - Yes - Until a vaccine is developed.