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Because many places have only announced school closings of 2 weeks. If I were betting I’d say realistically it will end up being more like 8-10 weeks when it i

Because many places have only announced school closings of 2 weeks. If I were betting I’d say realistically it will end up being more like 8-10 weeks when it is all said and done. Also probable that there is a second wave of outbreak later in the year. Historically these things come in waves from what I’ve read.

nate_meurer 7y ago
This was exactly what happened with Spanish flu. Erupted in early Spring of 1918, spread widely until summer, and then a mutated form caused a bigger and deadlier second wave in the Fall. A third wave occurred the following Spring with an equally high mortality rate, but the death toll was lower, likely due to the decrease in troop movements after the war. Luckily for us, a coronavirus is generally less likely to mutate into more a lethal form than is an influenza virus.
- ilkan 7y ago
  According to a report out of China, we are already experiencing the mutated version which is less lethal (0.6%) than the original (5%). I am hopeful that as we identify and remove the strains causing more terrible effects via prevention and hospitalization, the remaining strains will mutate themselves away in a year or two. https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3064908/coronavirus-south-korean-cases-rise-steadily-it-addresses https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3064908/coro... https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074938/chinese-studies-link-quarantines-coronavirus-mutations-may-make https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074938/chin... https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3048772/striking-coronavirus-mutations-found-within-one-family-cluster https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3048772/stri...
  - yread 7y ago
    Oh yeah? Have a look at Italian numbers. And then go to wiki and look at what was the deaths/cases at a similar moment in China it was like 1%! Symptoms occur on average 5 days after infection, hospitalization 6 days after that and death 7 days after that. To get true CFR you have to have at least 2 weeks without a new case
    - amscanne 7y ago
      This is likely because Italy has underreporting for younger cases: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-cases-distribution-by-age-group-italy/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-case... There’s two reasons that I could guess at: the age of the population itself, and the mild or asymptotic presentation of young folks with the way testing is ordered. Unless you’re got widespread testing for even mild illness, you’re unlikely to see real numbers. South Korea has wide spread testing, so if you look at their numbers it also explains their low death rate: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102730/south-korea-coronavirus-cases-by-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102730/south-korea-coro...
  - freepor 7y ago
    Viruses become less lethal once they have killed off the most vulnerable.
    - RomanBob 7y ago
      Murderers become less murderous once they have killed off the majority of their victims.
  - pmorici 7y ago
    There was a paper that discussed a L and an S strain the former of which is thought to be more deadly and was more dominate in Wuhan. In other areas the two are more equally distributed but the more deadly strain is still a large percentage of cases. https://youtu.be/7YI2tOoVVpk?t=141 https://youtu.be/7YI2tOoVVpk?t=141 https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036 https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036
    - koheripbal 7y ago
      That paper was retracted due to lack of evidence.

nate_meurer 7y ago

This was exactly what happened with Spanish flu. Erupted in early Spring of 1918, spread widely until summer, and then a mutated form caused a bigger and deadlier second wave in the Fall. A third wave occurred the following Spring with an equally high mortality rate, but the death toll was lower, likely due to the decrease in troop movements after the war. Luckily for us, a coronavirus is generally less likely to mutate into more a lethal form than is an influenza virus.

ilkan 7y ago
According to a report out of China, we are already experiencing the mutated version which is less lethal (0.6%) than the original (5%). I am hopeful that as we identify and remove the strains causing more terrible effects via prevention and hospitalization, the remaining strains will mutate themselves away in a year or two. https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3064908/coronavirus-south-korean-cases-rise-steadily-it-addresses https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3064908/coro... https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074938/chinese-studies-link-quarantines-coronavirus-mutations-may-make https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074938/chin... https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3048772/striking-coronavirus-mutations-found-within-one-family-cluster https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3048772/stri...
- yread 7y ago
  Oh yeah? Have a look at Italian numbers. And then go to wiki and look at what was the deaths/cases at a similar moment in China it was like 1%! Symptoms occur on average 5 days after infection, hospitalization 6 days after that and death 7 days after that. To get true CFR you have to have at least 2 weeks without a new case
  - amscanne 7y ago
    This is likely because Italy has underreporting for younger cases: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-cases-distribution-by-age-group-italy/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-case... There’s two reasons that I could guess at: the age of the population itself, and the mild or asymptotic presentation of young folks with the way testing is ordered. Unless you’re got widespread testing for even mild illness, you’re unlikely to see real numbers. South Korea has wide spread testing, so if you look at their numbers it also explains their low death rate: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102730/south-korea-coronavirus-cases-by-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102730/south-korea-coro...
- freepor 7y ago
  Viruses become less lethal once they have killed off the most vulnerable.
  - RomanBob 7y ago
    Murderers become less murderous once they have killed off the majority of their victims.
- pmorici 7y ago
  There was a paper that discussed a L and an S strain the former of which is thought to be more deadly and was more dominate in Wuhan. In other areas the two are more equally distributed but the more deadly strain is still a large percentage of cases. https://youtu.be/7YI2tOoVVpk?t=141 https://youtu.be/7YI2tOoVVpk?t=141 https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036 https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036
  - koheripbal 7y ago
    That paper was retracted due to lack of evidence.