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"Flattening the Curve" is a deadly delusion https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 https://medium.com/@joschabac

"Flattening the Curve" is a deadly delusion https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-dea... "Flatten the curve" scenario requires r0 to between 1.0 and a small number above 1.0, like 1.1. In other words, it's not happening, you either contain the virus or let it explode.

Medicalidiot 7y ago
Flattening the curve is the only scenario a lot of countries can realistically do outside of a Wuhan style quarantine.
- 7177Y 7y ago
  It's certainly effective propoganda to calm the Populus, from the government to the population and the population to itself. Hopefully leaders are sorting out more drastic measures in the meantime.
  - Medicalidiot 7y ago
    My attending went on the news to say that flattening the curve is our best bet at the moment. He's also considered to be one of the top physicians in the region. Y'all can sit here in a bubble, but the medical community has no hallucination that containment should have been done months ago and now it's past that.
contravariant 7y ago
It's also somewhat troublesome that for the 'flatten the curve' tactic the best case scenario is still infecting everyone...
- ElderKorihor 7y ago
  No it isn't. The hope is that at some point a vaccine or lighter treatment becomes available. If that occurs before the end of the flat curve, that's a major change in outcome.
  - lee 7y ago
    Most vaccines take 1.5 to 2 years to develop. By then most of the population will have been infected by it and will develop a natural immunity or resistance to it.
nemonemo 7y ago
How much difference is there between the r0 value of 2 and that of 3? Maybe we can't flatten the curve to fit it under the threshold, but we can probably reduce the area above it?
- nostrademons 7y ago
  Trevor Bedford had a tweet that indicated a 25% reduction in social contacts results in a 50% reduction in cases after 1 month: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1237934525281259521 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1237934525281259521 I think it's very likely that Wuhan or Italy style lockdowns will bring r0 under 1, based on the experience in Wuhan and Italy. That means the disease eventually dies out. Because it's endemic elsewhere in the world, it'll eventually be reintroduced and we get multiple waves, until eventually enough people have had it to generate herd immunity. But each wave starts back at the "containment" phase, with contact tracing and individual isolation, so combining lockdown + those measures + travel restrictions could probably buy enough time for a vaccine.
  - WA 7y ago
    - For how long do you have to keep your containment measures up? - Do you have to introduce new containment measures with every wave of reinfection? - How many waves / months of total are required to achieve enough herd immunity while keeping the hospitals within capacity?
    - nostrademons 7y ago
      Presumably the answers to these are: - Until a vaccine is developed. - Yes - Until a vaccine is developed.
jumelles 7y ago
This argument doesn't negate the fact that a "flatter curve" means fewer people in hospitals (or turned away from hospitals) at a single time. The fact that we probably can't slow the virus enough to prevent overloading hospitals does NOT mean we should just throw up our hands. For instance it would be better for hospitals to be at double capacity than triple capacity.
spacemark 7y ago
Says some guy on medium that's not an epidemiologist. Are you one?

Medicalidiot 7y ago

Flattening the curve is the only scenario a lot of countries can realistically do outside of a Wuhan style quarantine.

7177Y 7y ago
It's certainly effective propoganda to calm the Populus, from the government to the population and the population to itself. Hopefully leaders are sorting out more drastic measures in the meantime.
- Medicalidiot 7y ago
  My attending went on the news to say that flattening the curve is our best bet at the moment. He's also considered to be one of the top physicians in the region. Y'all can sit here in a bubble, but the medical community has no hallucination that containment should have been done months ago and now it's past that.

contravariant 7y ago

It's also somewhat troublesome that for the 'flatten the curve' tactic the best case scenario is still infecting everyone...

ElderKorihor 7y ago
No it isn't. The hope is that at some point a vaccine or lighter treatment becomes available. If that occurs before the end of the flat curve, that's a major change in outcome.
- lee 7y ago
  Most vaccines take 1.5 to 2 years to develop. By then most of the population will have been infected by it and will develop a natural immunity or resistance to it.

nemonemo 7y ago

How much difference is there between the r0 value of 2 and that of 3? Maybe we can't flatten the curve to fit it under the threshold, but we can probably reduce the area above it?

nostrademons 7y ago
Trevor Bedford had a tweet that indicated a 25% reduction in social contacts results in a 50% reduction in cases after 1 month: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1237934525281259521 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1237934525281259521 I think it's very likely that Wuhan or Italy style lockdowns will bring r0 under 1, based on the experience in Wuhan and Italy. That means the disease eventually dies out. Because it's endemic elsewhere in the world, it'll eventually be reintroduced and we get multiple waves, until eventually enough people have had it to generate herd immunity. But each wave starts back at the "containment" phase, with contact tracing and individual isolation, so combining lockdown + those measures + travel restrictions could probably buy enough time for a vaccine.
- WA 7y ago
  - For how long do you have to keep your containment measures up? - Do you have to introduce new containment measures with every wave of reinfection? - How many waves / months of total are required to achieve enough herd immunity while keeping the hospitals within capacity?
  - nostrademons 7y ago
    Presumably the answers to these are: - Until a vaccine is developed. - Yes - Until a vaccine is developed.

jumelles 7y ago

This argument doesn't negate the fact that a "flatter curve" means fewer people in hospitals (or turned away from hospitals) at a single time. The fact that we probably can't slow the virus enough to prevent overloading hospitals does NOT mean we should just throw up our hands. For instance it would be better for hospitals to be at double capacity than triple capacity.

spacemark 7y ago

Says some guy on medium that's not an epidemiologist. Are you one?