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I have one issue with or maybe just question about this graph. Why it starts with 100 detected cases? It seems like arbitrary round number, but it also seems to

by dfox 7y ago

I have one issue with or maybe just question about this graph. Why it starts with 100 detected cases? It seems like arbitrary round number, but it also seems to be the smallest arbitrary-looking number that makes SK overlap other countries. Why is that? Why is the initial slow spread in SK irrelevant? What caused it to be initially slower than in other countries?

contravariant 7y ago
This doesn't really matter, you're just doing that to make it easier to compare. Shifting South Korea so it doesn't overlap the other countries is possible but not terribly useful. They do seem to be missing Denmark though, which should stick out somewhere top-left of Norway.
- Animats 7y ago
  They do seem to be missing Denmark though, which should stick out somewhere top-left of Norway. I was just talking, via text, to a friend in Norway. They're going for major restrictions on contact and the people there are not worried enough yet. I sent her that graph.
  - loopz 7y ago
    Norway is going into full lockdown (stay at home, don't hoard). Borders closing except for export/import from Monday. Hut vacations now getting banned as well.
    - KozmoNau7 7y ago
      Which is a good plan and similar to what Denmark is doing, ie. stay at home as much as possible, everyone who can work from home does so, closing the borders for all non-essential traffic, and so on. There is a whole system being set up for compensation to concert venues and other businesses who are severely hit by the lockdown and blanket ban on gatherings of more than 100 people. Open air walks are ok, as long as you keep a reasonable distance to other people. Only go shopping if it's absolutely necessary. And yet some people are still going to crowded bars, like nothing's going on. It's amazing how stubborn some people are.
      - loopz 7y ago
        There's a distribution of who gets it when. The bans will be for those last 20% who just refuse to care about anybody else.
- kps 7y ago
  Denmark is now in today's version. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1238913530973339648/photo/1 https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1238913530973339648/...
Animats 7y ago
It's somewhat arbitrary, but you can't start from "patient zero" because that's not usually known. And the detailed circumstances of the first few patients matter. By 100 or so, the disease is in the population and starts to behave statistically. That's what's called "community spread".
bobbylarrybobby 7y ago
It’s somewhat arbitrary, but also, countries can’t detect the presence of coronavirus when just a single resident has it. 100 is a good starting point for “this country has detected the virus within their borders — what’s going to happen?”
Symmetry 7y ago
People infected with the coronavirus tend to vary wildly in how many other people they infect from people who stay home with a fever and infect nobody to "super spreaders" who many infect hundreds of others. That means the spread rate when you don't have a statistically significant number of cases is going to be all over the map naturally and not really comparable.

by dfox 7y ago

contravariant 7y ago

This doesn't really matter, you're just doing that to make it easier to compare. Shifting South Korea so it doesn't overlap the other countries is possible but not terribly useful. They do seem to be missing Denmark though, which should stick out somewhere top-left of Norway.

Animats 7y ago
They do seem to be missing Denmark though, which should stick out somewhere top-left of Norway. I was just talking, via text, to a friend in Norway. They're going for major restrictions on contact and the people there are not worried enough yet. I sent her that graph.
- loopz 7y ago
  Norway is going into full lockdown (stay at home, don't hoard). Borders closing except for export/import from Monday. Hut vacations now getting banned as well.
  - KozmoNau7 7y ago
    Which is a good plan and similar to what Denmark is doing, ie. stay at home as much as possible, everyone who can work from home does so, closing the borders for all non-essential traffic, and so on. There is a whole system being set up for compensation to concert venues and other businesses who are severely hit by the lockdown and blanket ban on gatherings of more than 100 people. Open air walks are ok, as long as you keep a reasonable distance to other people. Only go shopping if it's absolutely necessary. And yet some people are still going to crowded bars, like nothing's going on. It's amazing how stubborn some people are.
    - loopz 7y ago
      There's a distribution of who gets it when. The bans will be for those last 20% who just refuse to care about anybody else.
kps 7y ago
Denmark is now in today's version. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1238913530973339648/photo/1 https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1238913530973339648/...

Animats 7y ago

It's somewhat arbitrary, but you can't start from "patient zero" because that's not usually known. And the detailed circumstances of the first few patients matter. By 100 or so, the disease is in the population and starts to behave statistically. That's what's called "community spread".

bobbylarrybobby 7y ago

It’s somewhat arbitrary, but also, countries can’t detect the presence of coronavirus when just a single resident has it. 100 is a good starting point for “this country has detected the virus within their borders — what’s going to happen?”

Symmetry 7y ago

People infected with the coronavirus tend to vary wildly in how many other people they infect from people who stay home with a fever and infect nobody to "super spreaders" who many infect hundreds of others. That means the spread rate when you don't have a statistically significant number of cases is going to be all over the map naturally and not really comparable.