3 ms·

Like China, "the USA" is very large and probably not something that can be treated as an atomic entity. Even much-smaller Italy is probably too large for that.

by jerf 7y ago

Like China, "the USA" is very large and probably not something that can be treated as an atomic entity. Even much-smaller Italy is probably too large for that. While there may be hot spots that develop in the US, I can tell you from personal experience that there states that have taken strong measures when there are still single-digit numbers of infected in them. The state I'm in is not in a mandatory full lockdown per se, but pretty much every vector the virus has to spread by the dozens/hundreds/thousands at a time has been eliminated; what few are still left are fading fast. I don't know what will happen, but a full on r0-2.3 (or whatever the latest number is) spread isn't going to happen here under these conditions. (I highlight those last three words.)

solotronics 7y ago
I live in Dallas and two of my friends who work at hospitals both have multiple corona patients. It's everywhere, the official numbers are lying.
- xnyan 7y ago
  I wish people were lying, that implies that officials know the reality and are hiding it. That is too optimistic I’m afraid.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    Indeed, the reality is probably that they have no clue so there is nothing to hide. And that's a lot scarier.
newtoday 7y ago
'may be hot spots that develop in the US' You're kidding right? Under what conditions that things are fine are you preposing? If you're not taking this serious, and in the US, you're definitely part of the problem. That attitude, statistics aside, is going to get people killed.
- jerf 7y ago
  Settle down and read more carefully. Among the things you should have derived from reading more carefully is the fact that state I'm living in is taking it quite seriously. Personally, my hatches are battened down and I'm prepared to be isolated for at least a month, maybe two. (Have to admit it's hard to tell how far my supplies will go, I've never actually had to live on them before.) You're talking to someone who specially prepped for this about seven weeks ago, in addition to the general prep I already had on hand. If you can match that, then maybe consider start lecturing me. I actually got a bit of flak from my wife for the amount of prepping I did, because it was before she'd hardly even heard there was a new virus. Now she's glad I did, because I bought all the things that are missing in the stores around here now long before it was "hoarding". I'm in the top tier of taking it seriously. At the same time... Don't panic. Don't advise panic. Don't fall into the cognitive trap of modeling this as a zombie apocolypse or some other thing where the virus is intelligently seeking out victims. Isolation measures will slow the virus down. It isn't possible to keep it "out of the US" but it remains possible to keep it out of your county, or your city, or your neighborhood, with sufficient steps. Total doom is not yet inevitable, and even then, how you are impacted remains significantly under your control even if your government is feckless. Or, at least, it was, if you got your prep in before the panic rush... you may be a bit more at the mercies of your government now.
sneak 7y ago
The majority of spread is from small groups/gatherings, not stadiums and such. Restaurants, cafes, offices, homes, et c.
- jerf 7y ago
  "Small groups and gatherings" have collapsed here, too. Like I said, we're not in total isolation, but most people aren't going out, restaurants are abandoned, etc., and the few foolhardy folks still doing it are fading fast. The exposure network hasn't been trimmed to zero, but its branching factor has been radically cut down. This is going to have an effect.

by jerf 7y ago

solotronics 7y ago

I live in Dallas and two of my friends who work at hospitals both have multiple corona patients. It's everywhere, the official numbers are lying.

xnyan 7y ago
I wish people were lying, that implies that officials know the reality and are hiding it. That is too optimistic I’m afraid.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  Indeed, the reality is probably that they have no clue so there is nothing to hide. And that's a lot scarier.

newtoday 7y ago

'may be hot spots that develop in the US' You're kidding right? Under what conditions that things are fine are you preposing? If you're not taking this serious, and in the US, you're definitely part of the problem. That attitude, statistics aside, is going to get people killed.

jerf 7y ago
Settle down and read more carefully. Among the things you should have derived from reading more carefully is the fact that state I'm living in is taking it quite seriously. Personally, my hatches are battened down and I'm prepared to be isolated for at least a month, maybe two. (Have to admit it's hard to tell how far my supplies will go, I've never actually had to live on them before.) You're talking to someone who specially prepped for this about seven weeks ago, in addition to the general prep I already had on hand. If you can match that, then maybe consider start lecturing me. I actually got a bit of flak from my wife for the amount of prepping I did, because it was before she'd hardly even heard there was a new virus. Now she's glad I did, because I bought all the things that are missing in the stores around here now long before it was "hoarding". I'm in the top tier of taking it seriously. At the same time... Don't panic. Don't advise panic. Don't fall into the cognitive trap of modeling this as a zombie apocolypse or some other thing where the virus is intelligently seeking out victims. Isolation measures will slow the virus down. It isn't possible to keep it "out of the US" but it remains possible to keep it out of your county, or your city, or your neighborhood, with sufficient steps. Total doom is not yet inevitable, and even then, how you are impacted remains significantly under your control even if your government is feckless. Or, at least, it was, if you got your prep in before the panic rush... you may be a bit more at the mercies of your government now.

sneak 7y ago

The majority of spread is from small groups/gatherings, not stadiums and such. Restaurants, cafes, offices, homes, et c.

jerf 7y ago
"Small groups and gatherings" have collapsed here, too. Like I said, we're not in total isolation, but most people aren't going out, restaurants are abandoned, etc., and the few foolhardy folks still doing it are fading fast. The exposure network hasn't been trimmed to zero, but its branching factor has been radically cut down. This is going to have an effect.