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In part, because they think they already understand the situation, and the nature of that understanding precludes taking things like that seriously. “It’s just
by jamesrcole 7y ago
In part, because they think they already understand the situation, and the nature of that understanding precludes taking things like that seriously.
“It’s just the flu”
“It only kills 2% of people”
“The flu, cancer, car accidents, malnutrition, etc have killed far more people”
“People were worried about SARS, Swine Flu, and H1N1, and they turned out to be hardly kill anyone.”
“There number of cases here is small. Why are you panicking over nothing?”
“People need to stop panicking. People are going hysterical. The media is trying to make people panic. Just look at them hoarding toilet paper”.
“People are trying to ruin the economy over nothing”
“The experts — epidemiologists — say there’s nothing to worry about” (I’ve had this said to me and I was given a link to a news article that spun statements from some epidemiologists to make it sound that way. They were saying that they didn’t know how the situation would pan out, and this was presented as if it meant they didn’t think there was any issue).
I imagine that most people aren’t aware of the graphs. I imagine most people would be dismissive of them for reasons like the following:
They simply believe the apparent normalcy in front of them more than some abstract maths. They don’t grasp the notion of exponential growth, so it seems fanciful. They also don’t understand how it’s possible to project into the future like that. Maybe they think it’s just fear-mongering speculation. What concrete evidence do they actually have for the situation in Italy? And why should they believe what’s going on in a different country will apply to their country. Maybe their country has a good health care system, and they assume that Italy doesn't.
- VladimirGolovin 7y ago> I imagine that most people aren’t aware of the graphs. And even if they are, they aren't aware of log scale.
- Frost1x 7y agoDefinitely. Noticing it's log scale (or anything non-linear) takes a trained eye. I've worked with, presented, and consumed a lot of scientific data over my career and I still have a tendency to assume plots are linear no matter how many times I tell myself to always check scale first.
- TeMPOraL 7y agoAny half-decent plot aimed at non-specialists will have "log scale" written in the title or surrounding description. The one linked by 'soVeryTired didn't, which is where FT dropped the ball. But it does not matter here. The relevant axis on this chart is the time axis, the x axis. The chart is linear in it. You see a bunch of nearly identical trend lines, and you have to just count how many days a given country is behind Italy. It doesn't matter what scale the vertical axis is in.
- jamesrcole 7y ago> Any half-decent plot aimed at non-specialists will have "log scale" written in the title or surrounding description I have to wonder how many non-specialists would even know what “log scale” means.
- TeMPOraL 7y agoI didn't mean a non-specialist as in an average Joe; I meant an above-average Joe with some interest in one or more of: economy, physics, electronics, mathematics, biology. There's loads of such people.