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I work as Principal ML Engineer, and did a little epidemic modeling in my ML PhD. I wrote an analysis of how this is going to hit Ireland, including the best c
by feral 7y ago
I work as Principal ML Engineer, and did a little epidemic modeling in my ML PhD.
I wrote an analysis of how this is going to hit Ireland, including the best calculations I could find on fatality rate:
https://medium.com/@fergal.reid/predicting-the-impact-of-coronovirus-on-ireland-bff1b6d00d6a https://medium.com/@fergal.reid/predicting-the-impact-of-cor...
I think that left unchecked this could kill millions of Americans in a couple of months. I'd love to be wrong.
- hn_throwaway_99 7y agoI thought that was an excellent analysis. Thank you.
- masklinn 7y agoFor people who don’t find that clear enough, here’s a bloke comparing the obits in L’Eco Di Bergamo between Feb 9 and Mar 13: https://twitter.com/benphillips76/status/1238854071509016577 https://twitter.com/benphillips76/status/1238854071509016577 February 9 is 1 1/2 pages. March 13 is 10 full pages.
- toohotatopic 7y ago>If that trajectory persists, and we don’t arrest it, in the 2 weeks closest to peak rate, we’ll have seen 75% of our cases emerge. vs >in a couple of months. Why months? If there are 75% of the cases within 2 weeks, won't 75% of the deaths also occur within 2 weeks?
- bo1024 7y agoIt says in the two weeks closest to peak rate. So if the peak is mid-May, those 75% would all fall in May.