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What I don’t get is that we keep hearing quarantine isn’t effective, yet it seems to be in China and South Korea: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lo

What I don’t get is that we keep hearing quarantine isn’t effective, yet it seems to be in China and South Korea: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lockdowns-work-statistics-by-country-2020-3?amp https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lockdowns-work-s...

darkerside 7y ago
I think it's more of, quarantine isn't economically feasible. But then, things that aren't feasible can often become feasible in different circumstances.
- mantap 7y ago
  Economically it doesn't make much difference. You can either isolate people now or later. The period of isolation will be roughly the same because you have to wait for the virus to exhaust its pool of hosts (in a household). Definitely politically it makes a big difference.
  - darkerside 7y ago
    Now and later make a HUGE difference economically. Time value of money. Business cash flow. Not to mention, if it turns out to be unnecessary later, later becomes never.
    - azinman2 7y ago
      The scale of the problem will be so much larger because we aren’t doing a quarantine. In an exponentially growing virus, one single day makes a large difference.
    - jopsen 7y ago
      True, there might also be a vaccine in the future. Another argument is that we just need it to grow slow enough for a vaccine to be ready.
rst 7y ago
Chinese lockdowns are the most extreme form of social distancing -- everyone in Wuhan and similar hotspots stays home, not just ones for which there's some reason to suspect infection. In South Korea and elsewhere in China, there's special attention to quarantining people who are starting to show symptoms, and close contacts -- but there's also substantial social distancing as well (closures of schools, museums, retail...). There are examples where quarantines have been part of a successful strategy, but it's hard to find one where they've worked with no other elements.
maxerickson 7y ago
Who is saying quarantine isn't effective?
- azinman2 7y ago
  This article, to start, for multiple paragraphs: As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, put it: “The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective.”
  - maxerickson 7y ago
    It's a language problem. Things like self quarantine of infected (and potentially infected) people have a big impact on how fast a disease spreads (meeting the bar for "effective" in my mind). What they don't do is completely stop it.
    - azinman2 7y ago
      New cases in China and South Korea have slowed to a crawl.
      - iso1631 7y ago
        There were zero cases in Italy 6 weeks ago. Lets assume China and South Korea manage to stop every single person from having it - even people with mild symptoms, and get 99% of people crossing the borders into quarantine for 14 days. They then lift the lockdown. Aren't they simply back to the stage Italy was in 6 weeks ago? A couple of weeks later one or two of the 1% of people avoiding quarantine. They can try the "contain" phase again, but eventually that will fail, so after 4 months from loosening the reigns, they're back into major outbreaks and back with lockdown. Expect that to happen many times over the next 18 months. Even with a vaccine we haven't managed to eliminate polio or measles, and almost everyone is immune to them and doesn't carry it, we won't be able to eliminate covid either.
        7y ago

darkerside 7y ago

I think it's more of, quarantine isn't economically feasible. But then, things that aren't feasible can often become feasible in different circumstances.

mantap 7y ago
Economically it doesn't make much difference. You can either isolate people now or later. The period of isolation will be roughly the same because you have to wait for the virus to exhaust its pool of hosts (in a household). Definitely politically it makes a big difference.
- darkerside 7y ago
  Now and later make a HUGE difference economically. Time value of money. Business cash flow. Not to mention, if it turns out to be unnecessary later, later becomes never.
  - azinman2 7y ago
    The scale of the problem will be so much larger because we aren’t doing a quarantine. In an exponentially growing virus, one single day makes a large difference.
  - jopsen 7y ago
    True, there might also be a vaccine in the future. Another argument is that we just need it to grow slow enough for a vaccine to be ready.

rst 7y ago

Chinese lockdowns are the most extreme form of social distancing -- everyone in Wuhan and similar hotspots stays home, not just ones for which there's some reason to suspect infection. In South Korea and elsewhere in China, there's special attention to quarantining people who are starting to show symptoms, and close contacts -- but there's also substantial social distancing as well (closures of schools, museums, retail...). There are examples where quarantines have been part of a successful strategy, but it's hard to find one where they've worked with no other elements.

maxerickson 7y ago

Who is saying quarantine isn't effective?

azinman2 7y ago
This article, to start, for multiple paragraphs: As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, put it: “The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective.”
- maxerickson 7y ago
  It's a language problem. Things like self quarantine of infected (and potentially infected) people have a big impact on how fast a disease spreads (meeting the bar for "effective" in my mind). What they don't do is completely stop it.
  - azinman2 7y ago
    New cases in China and South Korea have slowed to a crawl.
    - iso1631 7y ago
      There were zero cases in Italy 6 weeks ago. Lets assume China and South Korea manage to stop every single person from having it - even people with mild symptoms, and get 99% of people crossing the borders into quarantine for 14 days. They then lift the lockdown. Aren't they simply back to the stage Italy was in 6 weeks ago? A couple of weeks later one or two of the 1% of people avoiding quarantine. They can try the "contain" phase again, but eventually that will fail, so after 4 months from loosening the reigns, they're back into major outbreaks and back with lockdown. Expect that to happen many times over the next 18 months. Even with a vaccine we haven't managed to eliminate polio or measles, and almost everyone is immune to them and doesn't carry it, we won't be able to eliminate covid either.
      - 7y ago