4 ms·

> This is a certainty. Are you an epidemiologist?

icedchai 7y ago
I don't need to be. Just look at the graphs across various countries. Then ask yourself, has the US response been better or worse, to date?
jiggawatts 7y ago
"nostromo", can I ask you to just do something for me? Open Excel. Or use a calculator and pen and paper. Start with the known number of confirmed patients in <insert your country here>. Or just "100" to use nice round numbers. Whatever. It doesn't matter that much. Write out some rows like this: Date, Cases 2020-03-15, 100 -- today 2020-03-20, 200 2020-03-25, 400 2020-03-30, 800 ... Each row is 5 days apart, which is the typical slowest doubling time in days. The cases double each row. Use a calculator if you need to. Work out when you'll be at 10,000 cases and 1 million cases. Please. Just do it. Now, you might think that <your country> is magically immune, that it's not populated with humans that have lungs, or that the weather will magically make the virus behave differently when it crosses your borders. If you believe that, look at these graphs: https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/coronavirus-is-now-growing-faster-in-the-us-than-in-europe/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/coronavirus-i... None of those countries are magically immune.
- UncleMeat 7y ago
  Why even have experts in epidemiology if everything is so simple? Just a few rows in excel! Done!
  - jiggawatts 7y ago
    All epidemiologists agree with this. All of them. They've been making public statements to that effect and signing letters reiterating the urgency of the situation. So what are you saying exactly? I don't understand what your point is! I'm agreeing with the epidemiologists. Their maths checks out. It's the same maths as my maths. It's the same maths as everyone's maths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg The only people I hear disagreements from are people who don't know how to use a calculator, Or they do, but haven't bothered. Nonetheless, they seem to have lots of time argue online, dismissing logical, coherent, and factual arguments without making any defensible statements of their own.
    - UncleMeat 7y ago
      The situation is urgent. Action is warranted. But snarkily saying "well obviously you understand excel here just type in some numbers" is not productive, specifically when somebody is asking for information from experts. The experts exist. They've done the research. Let's point people to them rather than signal boosting blogs written by engineers. Obviously it takes more than just "this is how exponentials work" to distinguish between different outcomes and decide on the appropriate action plans.

I don't need to be. Just look at the graphs across various countries. Then ask yourself, has the US response been better or worse, to date?

jiggawatts 7y ago

"nostromo", can I ask you to just do something for me? Open Excel. Or use a calculator and pen and paper. Start with the known number of confirmed patients in <insert your country here>. Or just "100" to use nice round numbers. Whatever. It doesn't matter that much. Write out some rows like this: Date, Cases 2020-03-15, 100 -- today 2020-03-20, 200 2020-03-25, 400 2020-03-30, 800 ... Each row is 5 days apart, which is the typical slowest doubling time in days. The cases double each row. Use a calculator if you need to. Work out when you'll be at 10,000 cases and 1 million cases. Please. Just do it. Now, you might think that <your country> is magically immune, that it's not populated with humans that have lungs, or that the weather will magically make the virus behave differently when it crosses your borders. If you believe that, look at these graphs: https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/coronavirus-is-now-growing-faster-in-the-us-than-in-europe/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/coronavirus-i... None of those countries are magically immune.

UncleMeat 7y ago
Why even have experts in epidemiology if everything is so simple? Just a few rows in excel! Done!
- jiggawatts 7y ago
  All epidemiologists agree with this. All of them. They've been making public statements to that effect and signing letters reiterating the urgency of the situation. So what are you saying exactly? I don't understand what your point is! I'm agreeing with the epidemiologists. Their maths checks out. It's the same maths as my maths. It's the same maths as everyone's maths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg The only people I hear disagreements from are people who don't know how to use a calculator, Or they do, but haven't bothered. Nonetheless, they seem to have lots of time argue online, dismissing logical, coherent, and factual arguments without making any defensible statements of their own.
  - UncleMeat 7y ago
    The situation is urgent. Action is warranted. But snarkily saying "well obviously you understand excel here just type in some numbers" is not productive, specifically when somebody is asking for information from experts. The experts exist. They've done the research. Let's point people to them rather than signal boosting blogs written by engineers. Obviously it takes more than just "this is how exponentials work" to distinguish between different outcomes and decide on the appropriate action plans.