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"China could afford to take the economical hit" The faster and better that you deal with it, the smaller the economic hit is going to be. China is going to be

"China could afford to take the economical hit" The faster and better that you deal with it, the smaller the economic hit is going to be. China is going to be the big winner here.

greedo 7y ago
Although China has a large internal market, they still rely on exports. If those are curtailed due to slackening demand, quarantine and tariffs, how do they become the "big winner?"
- incompatible 7y ago
  Well, smaller loser than they would have been if they'd allowed the virus to spread unchecked.
malandrew 7y ago
Maybe not. You want a society to develop herd immunity for a flu-like disease during warmer weather months. Since they failed to contain it, the disease is just going to show up in China again but this time from sick people traveling to China. The worst case scenario is lockdown during warmer months and then having it flare up again in winter months. That said, we could just apply medical quarantine procedures used for animals to humans. Get a lab test 48 hours prior to international travel and have an additional test performed upon landing at the destination. The first test minimizes the likelihood of someone with viral shedding traveling and the lab test upon landing let’s you get the person and isolate them immediately before they’ve shed virally.
- incompatible 7y ago
  Even if it's not contained world-wide, there's still the chance that a vaccine can be developed to provide the immunity later.
jopsen 7y ago
I don't see any reason to think that China can better handle the economic hit. China has more poor people than Italy, it stands to reason they are less well equipped to handle an economic down turn.
sdkaufman 7y ago
This. The economy is going to be hit either way, it's just a choice between A) a lock down but most people staying alive and healthy or B) lots of people dying or sick and an overrun health care system. Maybe we don't know which one will have bigger impact on the economy, but we know for sure which one will lead to more human suffering.
pmontra 7y ago
Especially because they are in the position to help other countries now, when everybody else have to think only about their own citizens. They sent doctors to Italy with medical equipment (Italy sent some help to China earlier on) so they're going to take some credit for the recovery. Then there will be the real recovery. Western Europe was rebuilt with US money after WW2 and the USA consolidated an hegemony which is still lasting now. I bet that China will be more than willing to help in the next years.
- lmz 7y ago
  Maybe China will emerge as the winner because they kept the number of victims down, just like the US emerged as the winner of WW2 after its industry was spared destruction by bombing.
  - pmontra 7y ago
    Seconded, but the USA also had the will to push their hand. They could have said goodbye and went back to the Americas, instead they did their best to control the world. Of course everybody in that position would have done the same but they had a competitor (the USSR) so it didn't come for free.

"China could afford to take the economical hit" The faster and better that you deal with it, the smaller the economic hit is going to be. China is going to be the big winner here.

greedo 7y ago

Although China has a large internal market, they still rely on exports. If those are curtailed due to slackening demand, quarantine and tariffs, how do they become the "big winner?"

incompatible 7y ago
Well, smaller loser than they would have been if they'd allowed the virus to spread unchecked.

malandrew 7y ago

Maybe not. You want a society to develop herd immunity for a flu-like disease during warmer weather months. Since they failed to contain it, the disease is just going to show up in China again but this time from sick people traveling to China. The worst case scenario is lockdown during warmer months and then having it flare up again in winter months. That said, we could just apply medical quarantine procedures used for animals to humans. Get a lab test 48 hours prior to international travel and have an additional test performed upon landing at the destination. The first test minimizes the likelihood of someone with viral shedding traveling and the lab test upon landing let’s you get the person and isolate them immediately before they’ve shed virally.

incompatible 7y ago
Even if it's not contained world-wide, there's still the chance that a vaccine can be developed to provide the immunity later.

jopsen 7y ago

I don't see any reason to think that China can better handle the economic hit. China has more poor people than Italy, it stands to reason they are less well equipped to handle an economic down turn.

sdkaufman 7y ago

This. The economy is going to be hit either way, it's just a choice between A) a lock down but most people staying alive and healthy or B) lots of people dying or sick and an overrun health care system. Maybe we don't know which one will have bigger impact on the economy, but we know for sure which one will lead to more human suffering.

pmontra 7y ago

Especially because they are in the position to help other countries now, when everybody else have to think only about their own citizens. They sent doctors to Italy with medical equipment (Italy sent some help to China earlier on) so they're going to take some credit for the recovery. Then there will be the real recovery. Western Europe was rebuilt with US money after WW2 and the USA consolidated an hegemony which is still lasting now. I bet that China will be more than willing to help in the next years.

lmz 7y ago
Maybe China will emerge as the winner because they kept the number of victims down, just like the US emerged as the winner of WW2 after its industry was spared destruction by bombing.
- pmontra 7y ago
  Seconded, but the USA also had the will to push their hand. They could have said goodbye and went back to the Americas, instead they did their best to control the world. Of course everybody in that position would have done the same but they had a competitor (the USSR) so it didn't come for free.