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> the spread in our city is quite low for now If you’re in the United States, where testing has been infuriatingly limited, the fact of the matter is you have

> the spread in our city is quite low for now If you’re in the United States, where testing has been infuriatingly limited, the fact of the matter is you have no idea what the spread in your community is. The numbers aren’t low because nobody has the virus, they’re low because nobody has been tested. If we did actual testing, they might come in low or they might come in high, who knows. As it stands, nobody has any real idea just how bad the spread is here. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Given that, the safest course is to assume the spread is high, and act accordingly.

tcbawo 7y ago
The state of Ohio has only 26 confirmed cases, but two days ago the Director of the Ohio Department of Health estimated that 1% of the state's population (100k) may be infected due to the high ratio of cases being community-spread [1]. This is the likely reason for such a high number of celebrities in the news testing positive -- it's already everywhere; they are the only ones getting tested. [1] https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-director-believes-more-than-100000-people-in-the-state-are-already-carrying-the-coronavirus/95-f6d8add8-94b5-42ec-bba1-347e6eed29bd https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/ohio-de...
- seganddr 7y ago
  That 100k number is for the whole world. It was a poorly worded tweet
  - cmurf 7y ago
    She said it out loud. There's nothing confusing or ambiguous about it. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/top-ohio-health-official-believes-over-100-000-people-with-coronavirus-in-state https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/top-ohio-health-offi...
- lojack 7y ago
  Not to downplay things, but celebrities may also be more likely to get it because they travel a lot and are in close contact with a lot of other people who also travel a lot.
bluGill 7y ago
Actually we do know one number :the total number of people in ICU is normal for this time of year. There are a handful of confirmed cases (I'm not sure if they are in ICU), but the total number of cases is still low. It is hindsight, but expontial grow means that despite not testing we didn't have a problem two months ago. Maybe we should have been in lock down a week ago, but anything sooner would be overreacting and not necessary. Most of the US is on lock down now which seems like about the right time to start. No more than a week sooner can be seriously argued.
- dragontamer 7y ago
  It takes about 7 days after developing symptoms for the hospitalized cases to come in. Most people who get sick think its a normal cold. They stay at home for a week, and when they can barely breath anymore, they finally enter the emergency room.
  - bluGill 7y ago
    Exactly. 2 weeks ago this was a worry but not significant as evidence by current ICU fill rates. Expect Washington, hopefully the rest of the country doesn't follow

tcbawo 7y ago

The state of Ohio has only 26 confirmed cases, but two days ago the Director of the Ohio Department of Health estimated that 1% of the state's population (100k) may be infected due to the high ratio of cases being community-spread [1]. This is the likely reason for such a high number of celebrities in the news testing positive -- it's already everywhere; they are the only ones getting tested. [1] https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-director-believes-more-than-100000-people-in-the-state-are-already-carrying-the-coronavirus/95-f6d8add8-94b5-42ec-bba1-347e6eed29bd https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/ohio-de...

seganddr 7y ago
That 100k number is for the whole world. It was a poorly worded tweet
- cmurf 7y ago
  She said it out loud. There's nothing confusing or ambiguous about it. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/top-ohio-health-official-believes-over-100-000-people-with-coronavirus-in-state https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/top-ohio-health-offi...
lojack 7y ago
Not to downplay things, but celebrities may also be more likely to get it because they travel a lot and are in close contact with a lot of other people who also travel a lot.

bluGill 7y ago

Actually we do know one number :the total number of people in ICU is normal for this time of year. There are a handful of confirmed cases (I'm not sure if they are in ICU), but the total number of cases is still low. It is hindsight, but expontial grow means that despite not testing we didn't have a problem two months ago. Maybe we should have been in lock down a week ago, but anything sooner would be overreacting and not necessary. Most of the US is on lock down now which seems like about the right time to start. No more than a week sooner can be seriously argued.

dragontamer 7y ago
It takes about 7 days after developing symptoms for the hospitalized cases to come in. Most people who get sick think its a normal cold. They stay at home for a week, and when they can barely breath anymore, they finally enter the emergency room.
- bluGill 7y ago
  Exactly. 2 weeks ago this was a worry but not significant as evidence by current ICU fill rates. Expect Washington, hopefully the rest of the country doesn't follow