Okay so here is my dispassionate take on it. 1) everyone (>= 60% of population) will get it 2) the modelling that’s been done by the British government is pro

Okay so here is my dispassionate take on it. 1) everyone (>= 60% of population) will get it 2) the modelling that’s been done by the British government is probably very good and almost certainly includes more variables than the shut it all down countries 3) we don’t know enough about how the virus operates but we might know enough by the time peak cases occurs in the UK 4) It’s very likely to come back in China et al, they think in the Far East it’s under control but it only takes one person arriving in Beijing to reignite the problem and you’re back to square one 5) they are trying to limit peak deaths including a lot of factors I have to assume that is their strategy 6) do you go with the models that give you a way to return to some normality sooner? 7) what is the best case outcome according to the best scientific models we can get? It’s very easy to just do what everyone else is doing without thinking through the best path. 8) I actually trust the people thinking about this issue, I know it’s hard to believe but I do think the UK government is going with a view that there are more factors than are immediately apparent in this equation. 9) will the UK turn out to be right that stopping this permanently will involve herd immunity. Unfortunately the American/Italian/Western society situation means stopping this virus will be impossible so you then start calculating if you want international travel to continue how can we keep our societies interconnected? My guess is based on a lack of information and a load of assumptions about this, but I think it’ll prove to be the right decision medium term. We are going to be in this thing for some time, some countries much longer than others.