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This is a great intuitive set of models. It also suggests scenarios where a poorly implemented quarantine could make things worse by intensifying contact and in
by yummypaint 7y ago
This is a great intuitive set of models. It also suggests scenarios where a poorly implemented quarantine could make things worse by intensifying contact and increasing spread between those isolated together, and then releasing everyone while still contagious. It drives home that if people are forcibly kept in close quarters for quarantine, its essential to see the full time period through. If resources might eventually wear thin enough that a quarantine may not be sustainable, it's probably better not to do it at all.
- jariel 7y agoI think it illustrates what happened on the 'cruise ship' (i.e. close proximity, clustered) quarantines, but it doesn't very well explain what real, individual quarantine would do.
- iso1631 7y agoWhat was interesting on the cruise ships is how few got it. Of the 3,681 tested, only 696 had it - after a month of close quarters. That's under 20%. Doesn't that suggest it doesn't spread particularly easily? All in all, 1% of those that caught it died, and cruise ships skew towards older people.
- mensetmanusman 7y agoThis is what happened in China. People in Wuhan heard the quarantine was coming and hundreds of thousand fled. Then, everyone was forced to stay together without access to medical supplies due to the quarantine. That is why the fatality rate was so much higher in Wuhan. If China hadn’t arrested the whistle blowers, the situation would be a lot different.