6 ms·

Yeah, I think that's referred to as "the denominator problem". Have a listen to Sam Harris' podcast on it this week - the expert on there sees 0.6% as an upper

• greedo 7y ago
  Do you mean a lower bound? If SK, which seems to be doing a relatively good job is experiencing a CFR of .6%, then countries performing worse should experience a higher CFT.
  • bonzini 7y ago
    That's the upper bound on the fatality rate if it infected the whole population. In actuality not even Hubei had 0.1% of the population infected, so the numbers will be higher if it mostly infects older people (Italy), and lower if it mostly infects younger people (South Korea).
  • tunesmith 7y ago
    0.6% is way out of date, as it was measured when many of the active cases were very early. At that time, I think I saw that deaths/cases was 0.6% and deaths/(deaths+recoveries) was 28.5%. As of today, deaths/cases is 0.9% and deaths/(deaths+recoveries) is about 9% . (Going by the numbers at worldometers.info)
• JamesBarney 7y ago
  But that's with the assumption the health system doesn't get overwhelmed. Once we run out of available oxygen, ventilators and ecmos that number starts to shoot up.
• tunesmith 7y ago
  As of yesterday, South Korea was up to 0.9% .