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You can read some of the rationale behind the plan here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/215666

by thom 7y ago

You can read some of the rationale behind the plan here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/215666/dh_125333.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... I'll be honest, I watched the announcement on Friday in open mouthed horror. I can't claim I have a concrete refutation for either the broad logic or the specific evidence underlying it, but even the best case scenario is a disaster of historic proportions. I wish us luck. I wish the rest of the world luck if it turns out we're right and they're wrong.

magicsmoke 7y ago
You could think of this as the advantage of a decentralized world with every country making decisions and experimenting independently. Maybe the UK's approach is the right one, maybe it isn't. If it turns out to be more effective we'll learn something useful for future pandemics. If not then only the UK goes down the drain and we'll still learn something from it. Best of luck.
- thom 7y ago
  Well surely the advantage here would be for us to be able to observe and exploit the hard won knowledge of countries out ahead of us, but that doesn't appear to be what we're doing.
  - magicsmoke 7y ago
    The thing is, what the UK is doing is truely experimental compared to what China, SK, and Italy have already done. And we won't know for sure what the full effects are until the end of the current pandemic. If the UK copied the lockdown and trace playbook already implemented, once this pandemic is over we'll have no data point for the quarantine old people only strategy to plan for the next pandemic with. How can you observe whether the UK strategy will work when nobody's done it before?
martinpw 7y ago
Just a note that this document is from 2011. I know you did not claim otherwise, but I had assumed from your comment it was a document prepared in response to the current situation.
- thom 7y ago
  Indeed, although I’m not sure what the utility of a preparedness plan prepared only after an outbreak has started would be, especially one created at the speed of the Civil Service. You can read more context (including the ethical framework and the individual studies used as evidence to underlie the plan) here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu

by thom 7y ago

magicsmoke 7y ago

You could think of this as the advantage of a decentralized world with every country making decisions and experimenting independently. Maybe the UK's approach is the right one, maybe it isn't. If it turns out to be more effective we'll learn something useful for future pandemics. If not then only the UK goes down the drain and we'll still learn something from it. Best of luck.

thom 7y ago
Well surely the advantage here would be for us to be able to observe and exploit the hard won knowledge of countries out ahead of us, but that doesn't appear to be what we're doing.
- magicsmoke 7y ago
  The thing is, what the UK is doing is truely experimental compared to what China, SK, and Italy have already done. And we won't know for sure what the full effects are until the end of the current pandemic. If the UK copied the lockdown and trace playbook already implemented, once this pandemic is over we'll have no data point for the quarantine old people only strategy to plan for the next pandemic with. How can you observe whether the UK strategy will work when nobody's done it before?

martinpw 7y ago

Just a note that this document is from 2011. I know you did not claim otherwise, but I had assumed from your comment it was a document prepared in response to the current situation.

thom 7y ago
Indeed, although I’m not sure what the utility of a preparedness plan prepared only after an outbreak has started would be, especially one created at the speed of the Civil Service. You can read more context (including the ethical framework and the individual studies used as evidence to underlie the plan) here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu