6 ms·

The health services will be overwhelmed if all we do is tell people to wash their hands. You are content with ~1,000,000 dead Americans, I am not.

ColinWright 7y ago
There's something here you're really not understanding, and I don't know if it's because you're not reading carefully enough, or I'm not being clear enough. I'm not saying that all we do is tell people to wash their hands. Flattening the Curve is not just telling people to wash their hands. It's also saying self-isolate, where possible don't travel, where possible don't go out at all, when it's necessary to go out, stay a minimum of 2 metres away from people whenever you can. Flattening the Curve is not about "Just wash your hands and we'll be fine", it's about making as many contributions in as many ways as possible to slowing the rate of infection. I'm genuinely astonished if you think "Flatten the Curve" just means "Wash your hands". And when I run the numbers, it looks to me like the US health services are going to be overwhelmed regardless, the point is to do every little thing possible to reduce the amount. That's what Flattening the Curve means.
- saurik 7y ago
  And the article, which is maybe the thing you aren't understanding ;P, is saying that merely reducing the speed by social distancing--which most people, maybe not you but then that is your misunderstanding of the background concept being talked about being here, think is going to be sufficient to not overwhelm hospitals, and that life will be able to return to normal soon--is not going to be sufficient to get the peak of that curve under that line... which again, is what the vast majority of people talking about "flattening the curve" are meaning: if this data were correct (which is not your argument, so let's assume it is) and you showed them the chart of the curve being flattened requiring a decade for the cute little infographic to work, I think the vast majority of people sharing those graphs would have a dawning realization that something even more drastic than mere social distancing is required, such as active tracing and containment, which no one in the US even seems to be contemplating attempting (source: I am a local government official who gets to peek behind the curtains a bit of the regional government above me, and I am absolutely horrified). You really just seem to have an awkward model of what people clearly are thinking when they say "flatten the curve" and share those little graphs, and are using it to cause a massive equivocation battle to undermine the thesis of an article that is effectively saying "we need to be allocating some effort towards active measures and not assume passive ones will be 100% sufficient"; trying to assert this article is telling people not to self isolate is such an on purpose misread it is painful :/. (Now, are the numbers in this article correct? Dunno. Or is it just too late to bother and we are all doomed? Dunno. But again: not your arguments.)
  - etrabroline 7y ago
    >trying to assert this article is telling people not to self isolate is such an on purpose misread it is painful Thank you saurik. I began to type out everything you say here in my own reply to ColinWright but gave up when I realized he either hasn't actually read the entire piece or is not interested in honest discussion. The same people today saying active measures are "not needed" or are "too late" are the same ones who 2 months ago said shutting down the boarders or quarantining new arrivals was too expensive or too racist or too impractical. Do you have any other insights into why the response in the US is particularly anemic? Why aren't local officials taking action given the reports out of Italy? (which no one can claim are fabricated by an 'authoritarian government')
  - ColinWright 7y ago
    I suspect that we agree on everything major about what should be done, but disagree about what we think people will take away from this article. People I'm talking to don't understand how serious this is, and I think we (you and I) agree that this is a disaster unfolding. People are saying "Get it now and get it over with", and that's potentially a disaster. But some people are looking at the original graphic and saying "Oh, so that's why we should self-isolate, practise social distancing, and wash our hands." So the graphic is doing the right thing, it's telling people to wash their hands, practise social distancing, and stay home if they can. The article ... which I have read all of ... is, I think, mostly correct. But I also think it's dangerously phrased. It says: > Flattening the curve is not an option for the United States, for the UK or Germany. Don’t tell your friends to flatten the curve. Let’s start containment. I think this is incredibly irresponsible. The actions individuals should be taking are to wash their hands, practise social distance, and stay home where possible. The people I'm talking to understand this to be the meaning and intent of "Flatten the Curve." But this article is saying "Don't flatten the curve." If you can contain it ... great! But that's up to Governments to direct and enforce, it's not what individuals do. Individuals need to wash their hands, practise social distance, and stay home where possible. Perhaps people's understanding of FtC is not the same where you are as where I am, perhaps people are interpreting it differently. Perhaps where you are, telling people to practise "containment" actually means something to them, and is not too late. I seriously expect we are in violent agreement about what should be done by both Governments and individuals, and I suspect we are equally in agreement about the potential for disaster. I've already seen this specific article quoted with people saying ... "OK, this says it will take a decade if we flatten the curve, so let's just get it over with." Yes, they're taking the wrong message away from it, but it's what people are understanding the article to be saying, which is why I think it's genuinely dangerous. The article may be correct, but from what I've seen, more people might very well die because of it. Not because it's wrong, but because the way it's expressed is leading people to the wrong conclusions. I suspect we (you and I) have a different view of what people might take away from this, and as I result, discussing it further is most likely pointless. I've clearly failed (up to now, maybe this comment has helped) to make clear why I think this article is misguided and best and dangerous at worst, not because of its content, but because of the way it says it, and the way I've already seen it being misunderstood. Let's agree this: * This pandemic is potentially catastrophic; * None of us want people to die needlessly; * Immediate and drastic action should be underway; * The best thing individuals can do it WtH, S@H, and PSD. Finally, I don't trust the Governments to act in the best interests of individuals, because that's not really what they're for. So I'm personally going the hand-washing, social-distancing, staying home route, and urging everyone I know to do the same.
rumanator 7y ago
> The health services will be overwhelmed if all we do is tell people to wash their hands. Again, that's not what "flatten the curve means". It never was. It's governments declaring state of emergency or alarm or whatever, and require citizens to stay at home for a couple of weeks and avoid social contact.
- etrabroline 7y ago
  People are hearing "flatten the curve" and thinking that a few small personal hygiene changes will save the day. It won't. Like you say, governments need to declare a state of emergency and require citizens to stay home. That's what this article is trying to say. Telling people to wash their hands is less important than telling them to demand immediate government action.
  - rumanator 7y ago
    > People are hearing "flatten the curve" and thinking that a few small personal hygiene changes will save the day. That's your personal assertion, not the definition or what "people" think or say. You are insisting on a notion that you've made up as if it was a strawman. It's wrong and unsupported. Just let or go.

ColinWright 7y ago

There's something here you're really not understanding, and I don't know if it's because you're not reading carefully enough, or I'm not being clear enough. I'm not saying that all we do is tell people to wash their hands. Flattening the Curve is not just telling people to wash their hands. It's also saying self-isolate, where possible don't travel, where possible don't go out at all, when it's necessary to go out, stay a minimum of 2 metres away from people whenever you can. Flattening the Curve is not about "Just wash your hands and we'll be fine", it's about making as many contributions in as many ways as possible to slowing the rate of infection. I'm genuinely astonished if you think "Flatten the Curve" just means "Wash your hands". And when I run the numbers, it looks to me like the US health services are going to be overwhelmed regardless, the point is to do every little thing possible to reduce the amount. That's what Flattening the Curve means.

saurik 7y ago
And the article, which is maybe the thing you aren't understanding ;P, is saying that merely reducing the speed by social distancing--which most people, maybe not you but then that is your misunderstanding of the background concept being talked about being here, think is going to be sufficient to not overwhelm hospitals, and that life will be able to return to normal soon--is not going to be sufficient to get the peak of that curve under that line... which again, is what the vast majority of people talking about "flattening the curve" are meaning: if this data were correct (which is not your argument, so let's assume it is) and you showed them the chart of the curve being flattened requiring a decade for the cute little infographic to work, I think the vast majority of people sharing those graphs would have a dawning realization that something even more drastic than mere social distancing is required, such as active tracing and containment, which no one in the US even seems to be contemplating attempting (source: I am a local government official who gets to peek behind the curtains a bit of the regional government above me, and I am absolutely horrified). You really just seem to have an awkward model of what people clearly are thinking when they say "flatten the curve" and share those little graphs, and are using it to cause a massive equivocation battle to undermine the thesis of an article that is effectively saying "we need to be allocating some effort towards active measures and not assume passive ones will be 100% sufficient"; trying to assert this article is telling people not to self isolate is such an on purpose misread it is painful :/. (Now, are the numbers in this article correct? Dunno. Or is it just too late to bother and we are all doomed? Dunno. But again: not your arguments.)
- etrabroline 7y ago
  >trying to assert this article is telling people not to self isolate is such an on purpose misread it is painful Thank you saurik. I began to type out everything you say here in my own reply to ColinWright but gave up when I realized he either hasn't actually read the entire piece or is not interested in honest discussion. The same people today saying active measures are "not needed" or are "too late" are the same ones who 2 months ago said shutting down the boarders or quarantining new arrivals was too expensive or too racist or too impractical. Do you have any other insights into why the response in the US is particularly anemic? Why aren't local officials taking action given the reports out of Italy? (which no one can claim are fabricated by an 'authoritarian government')
- ColinWright 7y ago
  I suspect that we agree on everything major about what should be done, but disagree about what we think people will take away from this article. People I'm talking to don't understand how serious this is, and I think we (you and I) agree that this is a disaster unfolding. People are saying "Get it now and get it over with", and that's potentially a disaster. But some people are looking at the original graphic and saying "Oh, so that's why we should self-isolate, practise social distancing, and wash our hands." So the graphic is doing the right thing, it's telling people to wash their hands, practise social distancing, and stay home if they can. The article ... which I have read all of ... is, I think, mostly correct. But I also think it's dangerously phrased. It says: > Flattening the curve is not an option for the United States, for the UK or Germany. Don’t tell your friends to flatten the curve. Let’s start containment. I think this is incredibly irresponsible. The actions individuals should be taking are to wash their hands, practise social distance, and stay home where possible. The people I'm talking to understand this to be the meaning and intent of "Flatten the Curve." But this article is saying "Don't flatten the curve." If you can contain it ... great! But that's up to Governments to direct and enforce, it's not what individuals do. Individuals need to wash their hands, practise social distance, and stay home where possible. Perhaps people's understanding of FtC is not the same where you are as where I am, perhaps people are interpreting it differently. Perhaps where you are, telling people to practise "containment" actually means something to them, and is not too late. I seriously expect we are in violent agreement about what should be done by both Governments and individuals, and I suspect we are equally in agreement about the potential for disaster. I've already seen this specific article quoted with people saying ... "OK, this says it will take a decade if we flatten the curve, so let's just get it over with." Yes, they're taking the wrong message away from it, but it's what people are understanding the article to be saying, which is why I think it's genuinely dangerous. The article may be correct, but from what I've seen, more people might very well die because of it. Not because it's wrong, but because the way it's expressed is leading people to the wrong conclusions. I suspect we (you and I) have a different view of what people might take away from this, and as I result, discussing it further is most likely pointless. I've clearly failed (up to now, maybe this comment has helped) to make clear why I think this article is misguided and best and dangerous at worst, not because of its content, but because of the way it says it, and the way I've already seen it being misunderstood. Let's agree this: * This pandemic is potentially catastrophic; * None of us want people to die needlessly; * Immediate and drastic action should be underway; * The best thing individuals can do it WtH, S@H, and PSD. Finally, I don't trust the Governments to act in the best interests of individuals, because that's not really what they're for. So I'm personally going the hand-washing, social-distancing, staying home route, and urging everyone I know to do the same.

rumanator 7y ago

> The health services will be overwhelmed if all we do is tell people to wash their hands. Again, that's not what "flatten the curve means". It never was. It's governments declaring state of emergency or alarm or whatever, and require citizens to stay at home for a couple of weeks and avoid social contact.

etrabroline 7y ago
People are hearing "flatten the curve" and thinking that a few small personal hygiene changes will save the day. It won't. Like you say, governments need to declare a state of emergency and require citizens to stay home. That's what this article is trying to say. Telling people to wash their hands is less important than telling them to demand immediate government action.
- rumanator 7y ago
  > People are hearing "flatten the curve" and thinking that a few small personal hygiene changes will save the day. That's your personal assertion, not the definition or what "people" think or say. You are insisting on a notion that you've made up as if it was a strawman. It's wrong and unsupported. Just let or go.