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https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664 https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/123882151552689766... appears to give a better explanat

by chippy 7y ago

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664 https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/123882151552689766... appears to give a better explanation from the modellers. The aim is to flatten the curve, any herd immunity is a by-product but not the aim.

simonh 7y ago
I think herd immunity is an integral part of the strategy. If a population never gets herd immunity, it will keep on getting infection breakouts and keep on having to impose lockdowns. The only way to stop doing lockdowns is either to prevent the ingress of the virus, ever, or eventually reach herd immunity. The virus is everywhere now, it’s part of the landscape, so preventing breakouts is just flat out not possible, at least for large countries with lots of travel and especially with large rural hinterlands like the UK. In this view the only strategies are long term strategies. There is a way to get herd immunity without an epidemic, and that’s inoculations. However we do not have a vaccine yet and have no idea if or when we might ever get one. So you can bet everything on red 13 and cross your fingers for a vaccine in 6 months, or pick which longer term strategy works best for your country, with its particular demographics and geography.
- draugadrotten 7y ago
  > However we do not have a vaccine yet and have no idea if or when we might ever get one. https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101 https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-t...
  - dntrkv 7y ago
    If I had a dollar for every COVID-19 vaccine that will be ready "soon", I'd have quite a few dollars.
  - MaxBarraclough 7y ago
    No reputable news outlets are reporting a vaccine breakthrough by the 'Galilee Research Institute'. Serious estimates are that it will take around 18 months [0] [0] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51454859 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51454859
- boffinism 7y ago
  "Herd immunity is not part of our action plan, but is a natural by-product of an epidemic" - spokesperson for Department of Health and Social Care https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402
- patrec 7y ago
  > so preventing breakouts is just flat out not possible Why not?
  - simonh 7y ago
    Because it isn’t possible to screen every single person entering a country like the UK, which means it is inevitable the virus will get in again and you’ll have another outbreak. However that’s assuming you can eradicate it. That might be possible in an isolated population centre like Singapore, but the UK has an extensive rural area where the virus can hide out, slowly propagating through many different sparse populations until it gets back into an urban centre. It can survive outside the body on some surfaces for 9 days according to recent studies so it can infect someone who has light symptoms, they put it on a new surface, then when they recover up to 9 days later it can up again in someone else. This can go on for months. You might track down some of these smouldering brush fires, but not all. That’s how flu keeps coming back every winter.
    - patrec 7y ago
      > Because it isn’t possible to screen every single person entering a country like the UK Why not? Personally, if I were put before the choice of not having more people enter my country than I can screen or killing off 1M+ of my electorate, I'd at least seriously consider the first option. Meanwhile the UK government clearly thought that even stopping the flow of people from an epi-center, fleeing quarantine (or at least tracking them) would be a grave over-reaction. > You might track down some of these smouldering brush fires, but not all I don't see why you can't keep it reasonably contained even with occasional flare ups. I'm not saying you are wrong, but it is certainly not self evident. Since the Chinese were willing to kiss good bye to something in the vicinity of $1T, presumably they think they can. If you keep perfecting testing and procedures and hold out till you've got a vaccine, I don't see that would not be a winning strategy. > That’s how flu keeps coming back every winter. Well, this is way worse than the flu and may get worse still, so we should be very motivated to kill it whilst we can. Also, looks like there'll be more where this one came from. Just taking a big hit to global life expectancy every few years will probably start to add up over the long run.

by chippy 7y ago

simonh 7y ago

I think herd immunity is an integral part of the strategy. If a population never gets herd immunity, it will keep on getting infection breakouts and keep on having to impose lockdowns. The only way to stop doing lockdowns is either to prevent the ingress of the virus, ever, or eventually reach herd immunity. The virus is everywhere now, it’s part of the landscape, so preventing breakouts is just flat out not possible, at least for large countries with lots of travel and especially with large rural hinterlands like the UK. In this view the only strategies are long term strategies. There is a way to get herd immunity without an epidemic, and that’s inoculations. However we do not have a vaccine yet and have no idea if or when we might ever get one. So you can bet everything on red 13 and cross your fingers for a vaccine in 6 months, or pick which longer term strategy works best for your country, with its particular demographics and geography.

draugadrotten 7y ago
> However we do not have a vaccine yet and have no idea if or when we might ever get one. https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101 https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-t...
- dntrkv 7y ago
  If I had a dollar for every COVID-19 vaccine that will be ready "soon", I'd have quite a few dollars.
- MaxBarraclough 7y ago
  No reputable news outlets are reporting a vaccine breakthrough by the 'Galilee Research Institute'. Serious estimates are that it will take around 18 months [0] [0] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51454859 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51454859
boffinism 7y ago
"Herd immunity is not part of our action plan, but is a natural by-product of an epidemic" - spokesperson for Department of Health and Social Care https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402
patrec 7y ago
> so preventing breakouts is just flat out not possible Why not?
- simonh 7y ago
  Because it isn’t possible to screen every single person entering a country like the UK, which means it is inevitable the virus will get in again and you’ll have another outbreak. However that’s assuming you can eradicate it. That might be possible in an isolated population centre like Singapore, but the UK has an extensive rural area where the virus can hide out, slowly propagating through many different sparse populations until it gets back into an urban centre. It can survive outside the body on some surfaces for 9 days according to recent studies so it can infect someone who has light symptoms, they put it on a new surface, then when they recover up to 9 days later it can up again in someone else. This can go on for months. You might track down some of these smouldering brush fires, but not all. That’s how flu keeps coming back every winter.
  - patrec 7y ago
    > Because it isn’t possible to screen every single person entering a country like the UK Why not? Personally, if I were put before the choice of not having more people enter my country than I can screen or killing off 1M+ of my electorate, I'd at least seriously consider the first option. Meanwhile the UK government clearly thought that even stopping the flow of people from an epi-center, fleeing quarantine (or at least tracking them) would be a grave over-reaction. > You might track down some of these smouldering brush fires, but not all I don't see why you can't keep it reasonably contained even with occasional flare ups. I'm not saying you are wrong, but it is certainly not self evident. Since the Chinese were willing to kiss good bye to something in the vicinity of $1T, presumably they think they can. If you keep perfecting testing and procedures and hold out till you've got a vaccine, I don't see that would not be a winning strategy. > That’s how flu keeps coming back every winter. Well, this is way worse than the flu and may get worse still, so we should be very motivated to kill it whilst we can. Also, looks like there'll be more where this one came from. Just taking a big hit to global life expectancy every few years will probably start to add up over the long run.