3 ms·

> The UK has explicitly declared that its strategy is to let about 40 million people get it Not exactly: https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/123882151552

> The UK has explicitly declared that its strategy is to let about 40 million people get it Not exactly: https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664 https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/123882151552689766... (threaded)

knzhou 7y ago
I agree with this guy, but he's not calling the shots. I'm talking about the UK government's position, and they were quite explicit about it.
- johneth 7y ago
  If you watch the press conferences, the main point is not deliberately infecting the population (that's a side effect), rather making sure the NHS can better look after those more vulnerable to the virus. A lot of it is to do with how long they think (rightly or wrongly) people will obey a quarantine situation. If you haven't already, I'd advise watching the most recent press conference (they're on YouTube uncut)
  - knzhou 7y ago
    I have watched them. They're merely saying the same thing but in more diplomatic words. In South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China, having most of the population infected isn't an implicit assumption that the strategy is built around -- it is the very thing their strategy is made to avoid.
    - johneth 7y ago
      The UK is starting from the assumption that the majority of the population will get infected, no matter what precautions are taken, so it's better to manage how we get there starting now rather than delaying the inevitable (quarantines will have to end at some point, after which re-infection of the population seems likely anyway).
  - mytailorisrich 7y ago
    The NHS is not able to handle this. They should at the very least be building several emergency hospitals right now to create beds, but they are not. Having a chance of reducing the strain would mean drastic quarantine measures, which they don't want to enact. Northern Italy has one of the best health systems in Europe (the NHS is not one of them) and they are discussing whether to let people over 80 die for lack of capacity... Keep your elderly loved ones isolated and safe because if anything happens to them in the next few weeks they will be on their own.
    - Silhouette 7y ago
      They should at the very least be building several emergency hospitals right now to create beds, but they are not. What do you think that would usefully achieve? The problem isn't just beds. They don't want most people with the virus to go to healthcare facilities, they want them to stay home and avoid spreading it around. The problem is intensive care and isolation facilities for the most sick patients who really need extra help. These require equipment, medication, clinical staff, etc. They are trying to increase the number of these facilities available, but the capacity will go from a few thousand normally to a few thousand more in the entire country.
      - mytailorisrich 7y ago
        I'm not talking about people with mild symptoms who can indeed stay home. I'm talking about the serious cases who require hospital treatment. If they have no plan for a drastic increase in capacity then their plan will turn into a horror movie within a month... If the NHS cannot handle this then serious measures should be taken to stop the spread instead of forcing schools to stay open.
mehh 7y ago
Not true we have a four-stage strategy that has been proven to work for years https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak

knzhou 7y ago

I agree with this guy, but he's not calling the shots. I'm talking about the UK government's position, and they were quite explicit about it.

johneth 7y ago
If you watch the press conferences, the main point is not deliberately infecting the population (that's a side effect), rather making sure the NHS can better look after those more vulnerable to the virus. A lot of it is to do with how long they think (rightly or wrongly) people will obey a quarantine situation. If you haven't already, I'd advise watching the most recent press conference (they're on YouTube uncut)
- knzhou 7y ago
  I have watched them. They're merely saying the same thing but in more diplomatic words. In South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China, having most of the population infected isn't an implicit assumption that the strategy is built around -- it is the very thing their strategy is made to avoid.
  - johneth 7y ago
    The UK is starting from the assumption that the majority of the population will get infected, no matter what precautions are taken, so it's better to manage how we get there starting now rather than delaying the inevitable (quarantines will have to end at some point, after which re-infection of the population seems likely anyway).
- mytailorisrich 7y ago
  The NHS is not able to handle this. They should at the very least be building several emergency hospitals right now to create beds, but they are not. Having a chance of reducing the strain would mean drastic quarantine measures, which they don't want to enact. Northern Italy has one of the best health systems in Europe (the NHS is not one of them) and they are discussing whether to let people over 80 die for lack of capacity... Keep your elderly loved ones isolated and safe because if anything happens to them in the next few weeks they will be on their own.
  - Silhouette 7y ago
    They should at the very least be building several emergency hospitals right now to create beds, but they are not. What do you think that would usefully achieve? The problem isn't just beds. They don't want most people with the virus to go to healthcare facilities, they want them to stay home and avoid spreading it around. The problem is intensive care and isolation facilities for the most sick patients who really need extra help. These require equipment, medication, clinical staff, etc. They are trying to increase the number of these facilities available, but the capacity will go from a few thousand normally to a few thousand more in the entire country.
    - mytailorisrich 7y ago
      I'm not talking about people with mild symptoms who can indeed stay home. I'm talking about the serious cases who require hospital treatment. If they have no plan for a drastic increase in capacity then their plan will turn into a horror movie within a month... If the NHS cannot handle this then serious measures should be taken to stop the spread instead of forcing schools to stay open.

mehh 7y ago

Not true we have a four-stage strategy that has been proven to work for years https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak