> you must have made billions on the stock market Shorting the market in January and February would've been more of a bet on government inaction than a bet on

> you must have made billions on the stock market Shorting the market in January and February would've been more of a bet on government inaction than a bet on any inherent characteristics of the virus. Many predicted large epidemics in multiple countries, but the CDC/FDA testing fiasco, or the lackluster response in EU wasn't easy to predict. I agree with OP that "everyone should stop pretending that 'no one could have known'". The probability of having a large epidemic in each country was significant, definitely above 2%. That number alone would've warranted ramping up production of test kits and sanitary supplies, building fever clinics, doing emergency drills, and setting up some data sharing infrastructure between healthcare providers. Most developed countries didn't do any of that.