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Seems to me that it's unlikely the toilet paper producers are perpetually running at 100% factory output. Something tells me they will respond by increasing pro

Seems to me that it's unlikely the toilet paper producers are perpetually running at 100% factory output. Something tells me they will respond by increasing production. Why? Because they are seeing enormous sales currently. Of course they want more. With some of the supply chain troubles we are having with everything closing, though, the delay might be slightly longer. I highly doubt this shortage will last longer than a couple of weeks. Even if I'm wrong, I'll keep believing that... Because honestly, the fear people have is as bad as the illness at this point.

EdgarVerona 7y ago
Unfortunately we don't have the data, only the evidence of whether their capacity is meeting demand. Right now it's not - but we will see in a week or two. If it continues to not do so, it seems rational to believe that they have reached the level of capacity where it would become more prohibitively expensive to increase supply. And at that point, the industry is going to have to face either severe short term shortages or potential long term financial trouble for short term gain. I hope it doesn't reach that.
mhb 7y ago
There's another benefit of the signal sent by high prices. It encourages the use of alternatives. There are many substitutes for toilet paper including other paper products and bidets.
- EdgarVerona 7y ago
  That is a good point, and if that was an outcome of this situation that'd be great, as long as people who otherwise can't afford/can't find toilet paper can get their hands on them. On a personal level I think bidets are fantastic. I'm not sure why they didn't spread in the United States.
  - dillonmckay 7y ago
    Also, why ducted A/C?
- pmoriarty 7y ago
  "There are many substitutes for toilet paper including other paper products and bidets." After coming back from a trip to India, an old housemate of mine told me that a huge part of the world uses their hand to wipe, and he decided to adopt the practice himself. He then warned me not to drink out of a cup he'd left on the floor in the bathroom. I'm also reminded of a story I'd heard about an American traveling on a train in the Middle East, who'd offered to share some tomatoes he'd brought with him and divided up at lunch, when everyone else in his train compartment was sharing their food. All the other people were happy to share their own food, but none would touch the tomato sliced he offered them. He couldn't figure out why, but in retrospect he realized that it was because he'd touched them with his left hand, which in that part of the world was commonly used to wipe. So everyone would only shake hands with and touch food with their right hand. I'm not sure how common such practices still are in the modern world, but if paper and bidets wind up in short supply, they're something to think about.
  - daenz 7y ago
    >After coming back from a trip to India, an old housemate of mine told me that a huge part of the world uses their hand to wipe, and he decided to adopt the practice himself And you promptly moved out of the house, right?
- cl0rkster 7y ago
  Be careful using things other than toilet paper if you're flushing it... Especially on a septic system. There are many examples of people doing this test with identical results. With alternate products, you are going to need a garbage near your toilet for your... Delicates. https://youtu.be/iX8ynvEl77I https://youtu.be/iX8ynvEl77I
jbay808 7y ago
If I owned a TP factory I wouldn't increase production. Consumption has not increased, this is a distribution issue. If I increase production now, I'll spend a bunch of money on overtime and then have to shut my whole factory down next month as the glut from all the hoarding makes its way through the system and everyone stops buying TP.
- cannaceo 7y ago
  As a manufacturer myself my strategy right now is go full tilt increasing batch sizes because I may have a labor shortage in the near future and I know demand is high. If customers aren’t buying my products they’re buying competitor products. It’s also a great way to get storefronts to order more from us than they would typically because our competitors are low on inventory. Worst case scenario I made too many products and I cut back on shifts next month and run a few less productions.
  - jbay808 7y ago
    Shows what I know! Good luck, and I hope your company does fine next month too in the slow period.
  - nerfhammer 7y ago
    the key here is that what you're making doesn't go bad, worst case is it wastes space in storage but you don't have to make as much of it later
watt 7y ago
Once the panic is over, there will be a slump in sales: everybody will be wiping from their own enormous hoard. They will not start going to toilet twice as often or start using twice as much paper. The real demand base line is 100% same.

EdgarVerona 7y ago

Unfortunately we don't have the data, only the evidence of whether their capacity is meeting demand. Right now it's not - but we will see in a week or two. If it continues to not do so, it seems rational to believe that they have reached the level of capacity where it would become more prohibitively expensive to increase supply. And at that point, the industry is going to have to face either severe short term shortages or potential long term financial trouble for short term gain. I hope it doesn't reach that.

mhb 7y ago

There's another benefit of the signal sent by high prices. It encourages the use of alternatives. There are many substitutes for toilet paper including other paper products and bidets.

EdgarVerona 7y ago
That is a good point, and if that was an outcome of this situation that'd be great, as long as people who otherwise can't afford/can't find toilet paper can get their hands on them. On a personal level I think bidets are fantastic. I'm not sure why they didn't spread in the United States.
- dillonmckay 7y ago
  Also, why ducted A/C?
pmoriarty 7y ago
"There are many substitutes for toilet paper including other paper products and bidets." After coming back from a trip to India, an old housemate of mine told me that a huge part of the world uses their hand to wipe, and he decided to adopt the practice himself. He then warned me not to drink out of a cup he'd left on the floor in the bathroom. I'm also reminded of a story I'd heard about an American traveling on a train in the Middle East, who'd offered to share some tomatoes he'd brought with him and divided up at lunch, when everyone else in his train compartment was sharing their food. All the other people were happy to share their own food, but none would touch the tomato sliced he offered them. He couldn't figure out why, but in retrospect he realized that it was because he'd touched them with his left hand, which in that part of the world was commonly used to wipe. So everyone would only shake hands with and touch food with their right hand. I'm not sure how common such practices still are in the modern world, but if paper and bidets wind up in short supply, they're something to think about.
- daenz 7y ago
  >After coming back from a trip to India, an old housemate of mine told me that a huge part of the world uses their hand to wipe, and he decided to adopt the practice himself And you promptly moved out of the house, right?
cl0rkster 7y ago
Be careful using things other than toilet paper if you're flushing it... Especially on a septic system. There are many examples of people doing this test with identical results. With alternate products, you are going to need a garbage near your toilet for your... Delicates. https://youtu.be/iX8ynvEl77I https://youtu.be/iX8ynvEl77I

jbay808 7y ago

If I owned a TP factory I wouldn't increase production. Consumption has not increased, this is a distribution issue. If I increase production now, I'll spend a bunch of money on overtime and then have to shut my whole factory down next month as the glut from all the hoarding makes its way through the system and everyone stops buying TP.

cannaceo 7y ago
As a manufacturer myself my strategy right now is go full tilt increasing batch sizes because I may have a labor shortage in the near future and I know demand is high. If customers aren’t buying my products they’re buying competitor products. It’s also a great way to get storefronts to order more from us than they would typically because our competitors are low on inventory. Worst case scenario I made too many products and I cut back on shifts next month and run a few less productions.
- jbay808 7y ago
  Shows what I know! Good luck, and I hope your company does fine next month too in the slow period.
- nerfhammer 7y ago
  the key here is that what you're making doesn't go bad, worst case is it wastes space in storage but you don't have to make as much of it later

watt 7y ago

Once the panic is over, there will be a slump in sales: everybody will be wiping from their own enormous hoard. They will not start going to toilet twice as often or start using twice as much paper. The real demand base line is 100% same.