> it's a slightly worse flu There are two key differences here: 1. The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus currently appears to have a death rate 7 to 20 times higher than

> it's a slightly worse flu There are two key differences here: 1. The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus currently appears to have a death rate 7 to 20 times higher than typical seasonal flus, and the death rate gets worse without medical care (and later in the illness). 2. Nobody has any existing antibodies against the coronavirus, so it can infect more people than a seasonal flu. We have seen in China and Italy that this virus can push health care systems to the point of collapse. And Italy can expect to see 3x the current patient load even if their shutdown has mostly stopped the virus. Estimates from the CDC say that the US risks up to 1.7 million dead if we don't slow the spread of the disease. Other estimates suggest closer to 480,000 dead unless we take measures. That's out of 325 million, so yes, most people would survive. The good news is that this isn't the zombie apocalypse or (for Steven King fans) Captain Trips. But unless everyone is missing something important in the numbers, this could be closr to 1918. Exponential growth (or even sigmoid curves) can be nasty.