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> I suspect this has happened in China and South Korea How could it have if only a negligible fraction of the population caught it?
by mathdev 7y ago
> I suspect this has happened in China and South Korea
How could it have if only a negligible fraction of the population caught it?
- dboreham 7y agoNo an epidemiologist, but I think the theory is you only need herd immunity in the local area, if travel is also restricted, for the infection to burn itself out.
- empath75 7y agoDo we know how many people are already susceptible to it? It’s plausible that some percentage of people are immune to it already — maybe they recently caught a similar coronavirus or some other natural resistance to it.
- rimliu 7y agoThat's a very good question. I have not seen anyone address it yet. I guess there should be probably similar research on other viruses.
- ibejoeb 7y agoSomething seems a little off. If this thing truly incubates for up to 14 days, during which time it can be transmitted, it seems odd that so few people are ill. Is it possible that many people, in fact, are infected but do not get sick?
- AstralStorm 7y agoIt is likely that the early symptoms get ignored, as they are similar to a cold - except the nasal discharge and phlegm, which SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to cause. (It gives dry cough instead of wet cough.)
- empath75 7y agoMost people do not get sick.
- DiogenesKynikos 7y ago14 days is not typical. It's more a conservative upper bound used for quarantine.
- grey-area 7y agoWe really have no idea what fraction of the population caught it, since so many show minimal symptoms. If it were not a significant fraction in infected areas I’d expect it to flare up again quickly. Quarantine simply cannot be maintained indefinitely, nor is it going to stop all spread.