6 ms·

This is the paper submitted for review https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987958v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987958v1

by TeeWEE 7y ago

This is the paper submitted for review https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987958v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987958v1 If it passesthe review stage it will probably be published in the scientific Journal Nature. Note: this is not a vaccine. Its a treatment option for people who are already sick.

FreshEconomist 7y ago
Frankly, I'm far more worried about the current cases, given the death rate of people who are on the older end. For most healthy middle aged/young people it's basically a cold from what I gather.
- woofie11 7y ago
  ... no. Unless you're a child, it's not a cold. Good shot of ending up in the ICU.
  - dmos62 7y ago
    Anyone has sources?
    - choeger 7y ago
      The numbers vary massively but I have seen a number of about 20% hospitalized cases. This includes the elderly and people with preconditions. But still, you would not want to develop any pneumonia when your local hospital is running over its capacity.
      - forkexec 7y ago
        It's a given that American hospitals will be running out of ventilators, beds, and nurses will be stretched too thin. And if you need an ECMO and/or organ transplant in the near future, good luck with that.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - greatest-ape 7y ago
      Unsurprisingly, smoking seems to be a huge risk factor [1]: “[..] the multivariate logistic analysis indicated that age (OR, 8.546; 95% CI: 1.62844.864; P = 0.011), history of smoking (OR, 14.285; 95% CI: 1.57725.000; P = 0.018), maximum body temperature at admission (OR, 8.999; 95% CI: 1.03678.147, P = 0.046), respiratory failure (OR, 8.772, 95% CI: 1.94240.000; P =0.016), albumin (OR, 7.353, 95% CI: 1.09850.000; P =0.003) and C-reactive protein (OR, 10.53; 95% CI: 1.22434.701, P = 0.028) were risk factor for disease progression [Table 4].” [1] https://journals.lww.com/cmj/Abstract/publishahead/Analysis_of_factors_associated_with_disease.99363.aspx https://journals.lww.com/cmj/Abstract/publishahead/Analysis_...
    - thatswrong0 7y ago
      https://miro.medium.com/max/3660/1*-O84hhKDRHmgMVAslvgj-Q.png https://miro.medium.com/max/3660/1*-O84hhKDRHmgMVAslvgj-Q.pn... Here's a chart made from a study in China. It's actually a bit unclear, but I'm assuming it's 18.5% of confirmed cases that require hospitalization. Now, the question is how many of those that got sick at all got confirmed in China, and how many people presented symptoms (those are unknown). So it seems like it's less than 18.5%. On top of this, Chinese men are heavy smokers and the air quality in China is pretty terrible, so that may play a part as well.
- andy_ppp 7y ago
  We don’t know enough about it to be sure of making sweeping statements like this...
- RivieraKid 7y ago
  It's definitely worse than a cold, the symptoms of a cold are very mild, for me it's usually painful swallowing, runny nose and slight and short-term increase in temperature and tiredness.
  - giu 7y ago
    Absolutely. From the WHO page [0] > Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death. The problem is that some people forget that between "common signs" and "severe cases" there's a vast area of very uncomfortable symptoms until you get to the severe cases, and we're currently still learning about this very gray area. Just yesterday the following link was posted on Hacker News: "Coronavirus: Some recovered patients may have reduced lung function", https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22568100 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22568100 [0] https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus
- cowmoo728 7y ago
  I believe I have it although I haven't been tested yet. I'm a healthy and physically active 28 year old. I have a high fever, general body aches, difficulty swallowing, dry painful cough. This is the third day of symptoms with no improvement. No pressure or tightness in my chest as of yet. However, if I have it, my wife probably has it too. Her only symptoms are a mild sore throat and an ache in her back. It's much less severe than mine. I had the bad luck of getting swine flu in 2009 and this is just as bad.
  - FreshEconomist 7y ago
    I think I absolutely misrepresented what I think. I didn't mean for it to come off that it wasn't more serious than a normal cold. I meant that many won't be affect more than that,. However the ones that get more sever cases/more exposure are at high risk, not to mention the older populace in general. I'm absolutely terrified for everyone right now.
- delhanty 7y ago
  It's not just live or die you know. Reduced quality of life is a possible out come too: >Similar to patients with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, some patients with 2019-nCoV develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) with characteristic pulmonary ground glass changes on imaging. In most moribund patients, 2019-nCoV infection is also associated with a cytokine storm, ... in those who survive intensive care, these aberrant and excessive immune responses lead to long-term lung damage and fibrosis, causing functional disability and reduced quality of life. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30305-6/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
  - forkexec 7y ago
    Yep. Both SARS viruses can damage the lungs. And short of lung transplantation and likely a lifetime of anti-rejection medications, lost lung function doesn't return.
- lsiebert 7y ago
  No, this is worse than a cold. Worse than the flu as well. For 18 to 49, the death rate for flu last year was 1.8 per 100,000 people. Corona virus's death rate is unknown but even among 20 somethings they are talking about an estimated .2% death rate. That's 200 per 100,000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
  - endorphone 7y ago
    Further, that assumes that the healthcare system can perform heroic efforts. In cases where the system is overloaded, such as seen in Italy, mortality numbers can get much worse. Now add that some/many patients have lung scarring that can hold with them for life. With all of the information available demonstrating that it clearly is pretty serious, I've come to identify people downplaying it as essentially the exercising of wishful thinking: If I tell everyone it's nothing, maybe it will be. I hope it's nothing. At the same time I understand the responses that have occurred.
  - speleding 7y ago
    That's a bit alarmist. Based on the numbers from Wuhan, where the disease has progressed furthest and the numbers are most clear, it's about 5 times worse than a seasonal flu. There is considerable uncertainty at this stage, of course, but the lower numbers look more realistic. Source: https://www.economist.com/international/2020/03/12/fatality-rates-for-covid-19-could-vary-enormously https://www.economist.com/international/2020/03/12/fatality-...
  - FreshEconomist 7y ago
    Yeah what I typed came across badly, I wasn't intending to download like it seemed from that comment.
- pritovido 7y ago
  Most children can be host without suffering it and transmit it to other people. For middle age people, if you are unlucky and get other virus at the same time(because you met with lots of people in a place), like the flu, it can be extremely dangerous. Last year I catched two virus at the same time and it was so painful. My body reacted too strong with an autoimmune reaction, attacking my own body, my joints, my muscles. It took me two months to properly recover, and I live a very healthy lifestyle. I sleep and eat well and exercise. The doctor told me that someone in the same situation that smokes for example could develop lots of complications.
  - forkexec 7y ago
    Get a flu shot, wash your hands, and stay away from large groups and don't exercise to exhaustion during periods of peak transmission.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
mcintyre1994 7y ago
Do you know how the timetable from Nature to patients would look compared to the year+ being widely discussed for a vaccine?
- janoc 7y ago
  It would likely go in parallel, that's why the paper is published on the preprint server. Paper reviews in major journals like Nature can easily take over a year but that is mostly to get the scientific "bragging rights" these days. It has little effect on further research and drug development since the information is out there already. The part that is most relevant for the development of a new drug/treatment is the safety and efficiency testing in the clinical studies - and that alone will take many months. It can be shortened if it is a drug that has been used before for something else (e.g. that chloroquine for malaria) and is only repurposed because there we know the drug is safe already. For a completely new drug it could take a year or more just to do the testing and get the approvals. So I wouldn't have high hopes to see this being deployed widely any time soon.
  - ericb 7y ago
    > For a completely new drug it could take a year or more just to do the testing and get the approvals. > So I wouldn't have high hopes to see this being deployed widely any time soon. I don't know, I mean, this is one of those things where compassionate use seems likely? Won't we end up trying that and doing studies on them after?
    - janoc 7y ago
      You can't "do studies on them after". These aren't studies for the sake of publishing papers but to determine whether or not the drug is safe to use and whether it is actually effective. If the drug or vaccine you are developing ends up killing more people than saving it is not much of a cure, is it? The same if the drug isn't effective - in that case it would be wasting critical resources and probably causing the sick to not get a really effective treatment. That said, this process will be certainly sped up to maximum amount possible, given the situation, but it will still take a long time.
dtech 7y ago
Yeah, some translated important notes from the Dutch article: > This is the first known antibody that blocks the infections > The antibodies have to be tested in humans, which can take months > The research still has to be peer reviewed > It stops the virus from further internal infections, allowing the patient to recover > They are trying to get a pharmaceutical company to mass-produce it > A vaccine would be a real solution, others are working on it. Vaccine development can take 2 years

by TeeWEE 7y ago

FreshEconomist 7y ago

Frankly, I'm far more worried about the current cases, given the death rate of people who are on the older end. For most healthy middle aged/young people it's basically a cold from what I gather.

woofie11 7y ago
... no. Unless you're a child, it's not a cold. Good shot of ending up in the ICU.
- dmos62 7y ago
  Anyone has sources?
  - choeger 7y ago
    The numbers vary massively but I have seen a number of about 20% hospitalized cases. This includes the elderly and people with preconditions. But still, you would not want to develop any pneumonia when your local hospital is running over its capacity.
    - forkexec 7y ago
      It's a given that American hospitals will be running out of ventilators, beds, and nurses will be stretched too thin. And if you need an ECMO and/or organ transplant in the near future, good luck with that.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - greatest-ape 7y ago
    Unsurprisingly, smoking seems to be a huge risk factor [1]: “[..] the multivariate logistic analysis indicated that age (OR, 8.546; 95% CI: 1.62844.864; P = 0.011), history of smoking (OR, 14.285; 95% CI: 1.57725.000; P = 0.018), maximum body temperature at admission (OR, 8.999; 95% CI: 1.03678.147, P = 0.046), respiratory failure (OR, 8.772, 95% CI: 1.94240.000; P =0.016), albumin (OR, 7.353, 95% CI: 1.09850.000; P =0.003) and C-reactive protein (OR, 10.53; 95% CI: 1.22434.701, P = 0.028) were risk factor for disease progression [Table 4].” [1] https://journals.lww.com/cmj/Abstract/publishahead/Analysis_of_factors_associated_with_disease.99363.aspx https://journals.lww.com/cmj/Abstract/publishahead/Analysis_...
  - thatswrong0 7y ago
    https://miro.medium.com/max/3660/1*-O84hhKDRHmgMVAslvgj-Q.png https://miro.medium.com/max/3660/1*-O84hhKDRHmgMVAslvgj-Q.pn... Here's a chart made from a study in China. It's actually a bit unclear, but I'm assuming it's 18.5% of confirmed cases that require hospitalization. Now, the question is how many of those that got sick at all got confirmed in China, and how many people presented symptoms (those are unknown). So it seems like it's less than 18.5%. On top of this, Chinese men are heavy smokers and the air quality in China is pretty terrible, so that may play a part as well.
andy_ppp 7y ago
We don’t know enough about it to be sure of making sweeping statements like this...
RivieraKid 7y ago
It's definitely worse than a cold, the symptoms of a cold are very mild, for me it's usually painful swallowing, runny nose and slight and short-term increase in temperature and tiredness.
- giu 7y ago
  Absolutely. From the WHO page [0] > Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death. The problem is that some people forget that between "common signs" and "severe cases" there's a vast area of very uncomfortable symptoms until you get to the severe cases, and we're currently still learning about this very gray area. Just yesterday the following link was posted on Hacker News: "Coronavirus: Some recovered patients may have reduced lung function", https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22568100 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22568100 [0] https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus
cowmoo728 7y ago
I believe I have it although I haven't been tested yet. I'm a healthy and physically active 28 year old. I have a high fever, general body aches, difficulty swallowing, dry painful cough. This is the third day of symptoms with no improvement. No pressure or tightness in my chest as of yet. However, if I have it, my wife probably has it too. Her only symptoms are a mild sore throat and an ache in her back. It's much less severe than mine. I had the bad luck of getting swine flu in 2009 and this is just as bad.
- FreshEconomist 7y ago
  I think I absolutely misrepresented what I think. I didn't mean for it to come off that it wasn't more serious than a normal cold. I meant that many won't be affect more than that,. However the ones that get more sever cases/more exposure are at high risk, not to mention the older populace in general. I'm absolutely terrified for everyone right now.
delhanty 7y ago
It's not just live or die you know. Reduced quality of life is a possible out come too: >Similar to patients with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, some patients with 2019-nCoV develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) with characteristic pulmonary ground glass changes on imaging. In most moribund patients, 2019-nCoV infection is also associated with a cytokine storm, ... in those who survive intensive care, these aberrant and excessive immune responses lead to long-term lung damage and fibrosis, causing functional disability and reduced quality of life. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30305-6/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
- forkexec 7y ago
  Yep. Both SARS viruses can damage the lungs. And short of lung transplantation and likely a lifetime of anti-rejection medications, lost lung function doesn't return.
lsiebert 7y ago
No, this is worse than a cold. Worse than the flu as well. For 18 to 49, the death rate for flu last year was 1.8 per 100,000 people. Corona virus's death rate is unknown but even among 20 somethings they are talking about an estimated .2% death rate. That's 200 per 100,000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
- endorphone 7y ago
  Further, that assumes that the healthcare system can perform heroic efforts. In cases where the system is overloaded, such as seen in Italy, mortality numbers can get much worse. Now add that some/many patients have lung scarring that can hold with them for life. With all of the information available demonstrating that it clearly is pretty serious, I've come to identify people downplaying it as essentially the exercising of wishful thinking: If I tell everyone it's nothing, maybe it will be. I hope it's nothing. At the same time I understand the responses that have occurred.
- speleding 7y ago
  That's a bit alarmist. Based on the numbers from Wuhan, where the disease has progressed furthest and the numbers are most clear, it's about 5 times worse than a seasonal flu. There is considerable uncertainty at this stage, of course, but the lower numbers look more realistic. Source: https://www.economist.com/international/2020/03/12/fatality-rates-for-covid-19-could-vary-enormously https://www.economist.com/international/2020/03/12/fatality-...
- FreshEconomist 7y ago
  Yeah what I typed came across badly, I wasn't intending to download like it seemed from that comment.
pritovido 7y ago
Most children can be host without suffering it and transmit it to other people. For middle age people, if you are unlucky and get other virus at the same time(because you met with lots of people in a place), like the flu, it can be extremely dangerous. Last year I catched two virus at the same time and it was so painful. My body reacted too strong with an autoimmune reaction, attacking my own body, my joints, my muscles. It took me two months to properly recover, and I live a very healthy lifestyle. I sleep and eat well and exercise. The doctor told me that someone in the same situation that smokes for example could develop lots of complications.
- forkexec 7y ago
  Get a flu shot, wash your hands, and stay away from large groups and don't exercise to exhaustion during periods of peak transmission.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

mcintyre1994 7y ago

Do you know how the timetable from Nature to patients would look compared to the year+ being widely discussed for a vaccine?

janoc 7y ago
It would likely go in parallel, that's why the paper is published on the preprint server. Paper reviews in major journals like Nature can easily take over a year but that is mostly to get the scientific "bragging rights" these days. It has little effect on further research and drug development since the information is out there already. The part that is most relevant for the development of a new drug/treatment is the safety and efficiency testing in the clinical studies - and that alone will take many months. It can be shortened if it is a drug that has been used before for something else (e.g. that chloroquine for malaria) and is only repurposed because there we know the drug is safe already. For a completely new drug it could take a year or more just to do the testing and get the approvals. So I wouldn't have high hopes to see this being deployed widely any time soon.
- ericb 7y ago
  > For a completely new drug it could take a year or more just to do the testing and get the approvals. > So I wouldn't have high hopes to see this being deployed widely any time soon. I don't know, I mean, this is one of those things where compassionate use seems likely? Won't we end up trying that and doing studies on them after?
  - janoc 7y ago
    You can't "do studies on them after". These aren't studies for the sake of publishing papers but to determine whether or not the drug is safe to use and whether it is actually effective. If the drug or vaccine you are developing ends up killing more people than saving it is not much of a cure, is it? The same if the drug isn't effective - in that case it would be wasting critical resources and probably causing the sick to not get a really effective treatment. That said, this process will be certainly sped up to maximum amount possible, given the situation, but it will still take a long time.

dtech 7y ago

Yeah, some translated important notes from the Dutch article: > This is the first known antibody that blocks the infections > The antibodies have to be tested in humans, which can take months > The research still has to be peer reviewed > It stops the virus from further internal infections, allowing the patient to recover > They are trying to get a pharmaceutical company to mass-produce it > A vaccine would be a real solution, others are working on it. Vaccine development can take 2 years