5 ms·

He is not the only one. I believe it was an Ask Me Anything with Bill Gates on Reddit. Someone asked Gates about a third world war and he replied he was more

by thdrdt 7y ago

He is not the only one. I believe it was an Ask Me Anything with Bill Gates on Reddit. Someone asked Gates about a third world war and he replied he was more sure and worried about a pandemic. I have no doubt others in the field had the same thoughts. The most troubling thing is that a lot of leaders dismissed this information.

corpMaverick 7y ago
He warned us. We didn't listen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI
- randomsearch 7y ago
  I think about a gazillion people identified exactly this type of situation as a problem, and we’ve had plenty of other outbreaks. It is completely unsurprising. The UK has done a lot of modelling and prepping for such an event, as I’m sure have other governments, but that doesn’t give you magic powers when it happens.
  - makomk 7y ago
    It's also worth bearing in mind that there's precisely one country which could possibly have done what he suggested and stopped this by preventing the spillover in the first place - China - and, well, good luck with that.
    - randomsearch 7y ago
      I think the problem is that the virus is so mild. You can't spot a lot of cases, so e.g. someone gets on a plane and is not showing symptoms and a few days later in Italy they get sick or infect others without realising they're ill.
- jotm 7y ago
  And if this fizzles out people will just go "see? there was no need for these drastic measures, nothing happened!"... Nothing happened because drastic measures were taken...
  - Mountain_Skies 7y ago
    Another scenario is drastic measures are taken but the threat fizzles out on its own. With infectious diseases it can be quite difficult to know until it is over just how real the threat was. President Ford pushed for a widespread inoculation program for a swine flu epidemic that seemed threatening but never came. The vaccine caused more health problems than the flu itself. Ford was heavily criticized and lost credibility for his level of response but there was no way for him to know it would fizzle out on its own. Had he not acted and it became an epidemic, he also would have faced political consequences. Sometimes the best response simply can't be known ahead of time.
- fit2rule 7y ago
  People did listen. But the general population - and most of their politicians - are too complacent, decadent even, to change lifestyles. The West is addicted to lifestyles. Its near impossible for many people to consider changing their lives in any way - why should they? Nobody else does. If anything, I hope that after this event is over, the survivors take a long hard look at who and what they are, in relation to each other. I hope we get over our decadence and realise that our 'safe' cultures are anything but safe, and that we all address the need to build better societies.
  - thu2111 7y ago
    Fine words that mean nothing. What sort of "decadent lifestyle" do you have in mind, given that pandemics have existed for as long as humanity, everywhere in every society.
    - fit2rule 7y ago
      Well, its pretty decadent to not have your own garden.
chrisseaton 7y ago
> The most troubling thing is that a lot of leaders dismissed this information. This is nonsense! Global pandemic was literally at the very top of many countries' national security risk registers! Everyone has been saying for decades that this was the biggest threat! Trying to rewrite history to say that only some fringe celebrities saw it coming is bizarre.
- thdrdt 7y ago
  https://www.ghsindex.org/ https://www.ghsindex.org/
  - chrisseaton 7y ago
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/644968/UK_National_Risk_Register_2017.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... Look at Matrix A - global pandemic listed as both likely and impactful.

by thdrdt 7y ago

corpMaverick 7y ago

He warned us. We didn't listen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

randomsearch 7y ago
I think about a gazillion people identified exactly this type of situation as a problem, and we’ve had plenty of other outbreaks. It is completely unsurprising. The UK has done a lot of modelling and prepping for such an event, as I’m sure have other governments, but that doesn’t give you magic powers when it happens.
- makomk 7y ago
  It's also worth bearing in mind that there's precisely one country which could possibly have done what he suggested and stopped this by preventing the spillover in the first place - China - and, well, good luck with that.
  - randomsearch 7y ago
    I think the problem is that the virus is so mild. You can't spot a lot of cases, so e.g. someone gets on a plane and is not showing symptoms and a few days later in Italy they get sick or infect others without realising they're ill.
jotm 7y ago
And if this fizzles out people will just go "see? there was no need for these drastic measures, nothing happened!"... Nothing happened because drastic measures were taken...
- Mountain_Skies 7y ago
  Another scenario is drastic measures are taken but the threat fizzles out on its own. With infectious diseases it can be quite difficult to know until it is over just how real the threat was. President Ford pushed for a widespread inoculation program for a swine flu epidemic that seemed threatening but never came. The vaccine caused more health problems than the flu itself. Ford was heavily criticized and lost credibility for his level of response but there was no way for him to know it would fizzle out on its own. Had he not acted and it became an epidemic, he also would have faced political consequences. Sometimes the best response simply can't be known ahead of time.
fit2rule 7y ago
People did listen. But the general population - and most of their politicians - are too complacent, decadent even, to change lifestyles. The West is addicted to lifestyles. Its near impossible for many people to consider changing their lives in any way - why should they? Nobody else does. If anything, I hope that after this event is over, the survivors take a long hard look at who and what they are, in relation to each other. I hope we get over our decadence and realise that our 'safe' cultures are anything but safe, and that we all address the need to build better societies.
- thu2111 7y ago
  Fine words that mean nothing. What sort of "decadent lifestyle" do you have in mind, given that pandemics have existed for as long as humanity, everywhere in every society.
  - fit2rule 7y ago
    Well, its pretty decadent to not have your own garden.

chrisseaton 7y ago

> The most troubling thing is that a lot of leaders dismissed this information. This is nonsense! Global pandemic was literally at the very top of many countries' national security risk registers! Everyone has been saying for decades that this was the biggest threat! Trying to rewrite history to say that only some fringe celebrities saw it coming is bizarre.

thdrdt 7y ago
https://www.ghsindex.org/ https://www.ghsindex.org/
- chrisseaton 7y ago
  https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/644968/UK_National_Risk_Register_2017.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... Look at Matrix A - global pandemic listed as both likely and impactful.