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I wonder which companies will benefit from this pandemic, long-term. If there’s a surge in remote working, for example, seems like that could be good for FAANG,

I wonder which companies will benefit from this pandemic, long-term. If there’s a surge in remote working, for example, seems like that could be good for FAANG, bad for transport companies, commercial real estate, public events. Is there any analysis out there about this?

ehsankia 7y ago
Streaming sites like Netflix, maybe?
- unlinked_dll 7y ago
  Maybe Disney, more likely. Hollywood has essentially frozen production and from what I'm hearing they're really not setup for working remote in pre/post (especially the latter). Combine with delayed releases, cancellation of film festivals (which are marketplaces as much as exhibitions for content) and the new releases this year appear to be on a giant delay. Disney is interesting because they have the deepest bench, so to speak in terms of catalog. They also have the kids stuff, and all the kids are at home. They also had their stock dip below $100 with the crash this week, had to shutdown their parks, and quite recently reorganized the entire direct to consumer business. I'd put some money on Disney coming out on top there. Netflix relies on new content to reduce churn. If production is halted I don't know how that looks for them. However if you take out their capex on production, they suddenly become stupidly profitable. So who knows.
  - jonknee 7y ago
    Disney is also hemorrhaging cash with their parks closed. Along with resorts and cruises. And their TV advertising just vanished with losing all live sports. The next earnings season is going to be insane.
  - ehsankia 7y ago
    Even with it's deep catalog, Disney+ still has far less content than Netflix. I do agree that Netflix relies on new content to reduce churn, but my argument wasn't so much about existing users (churn), but about millions of new people who never had Netflix deciding to sign up because they have nothing else to do at home. As for the rest of people, I agree that when you're competing with hundreds of other sources of entertainment and ways to spend your days, Netflix's catalog may not be amazing, but when most of the population is stuck at home, I'm sure there are plenty of stuff people will find and enjoy on Netflix. Disney is definitely a runner up too. They've started moving releases closers. They just released Frozen 2 and the new Starwars movie digitally.
- dogma1138 7y ago
  All movie and tv production has been halted, with Netflix losing much of its library to competing services it might not be that good.
grumple 7y ago
Good for Cloud services. In the short term, streaming services are probably more popular than ever. Gaming will probably do quite well with all the students off. Good for video chat apps, slack, Atlassian and other work management systems.
unlinked_dll 7y ago
It seems to be quite bad for the AA in FAANG. Or at least one of them I don't think any analysis is valid right now since we don't know what long term even means at this point. I think the companies that will benefit will be entirely unpredictable, because we're about to fall into a steep descent in our gradient and the optimization of companies business models and products is about to get crazy. Just like '08 and '01.
- norswap 7y ago
  How can this possibly be bad for Amazon? Deliveries will explode as long as the post keeps running. More web usage also = wins for AWS.
  - unlinked_dll 7y ago
    Deliveries take warehouses, truck drivers, ports, and air travel. Especially for things from China. I've already tried buying some stuff I'd normally get at a store from Amazon and the lead time was questionable.
    - totalZero 7y ago
      The lead time for many items is questionable due to demand. Think about the volume of Amazon Pantry orders right now.
dzhiurgis 7y ago
Food delivery, medical (esp respiratory support), funeral services. Probably not really long tho. Better way to think is what is NOT going to change - food, shelter, utilities, telco, etc. Will go down - luxuries, appliances, home improvement, cars, etc.
totalZero 7y ago
AWS will make bank on the infrastructure for so much remote work.
- RubberbandSoul 7y ago
  That's on the condition that they can keep up with demand or even keep their existing infrastructure running. If the electronics supply chain starts breaking down they can't just throw new hardware at an increasing workload. On top of that there's the fact that existing hardware like hard drives has a best-before date based on the cumulated read/write operations they can handle. I think there's going to be a big demand for engineers and developers that can squeeze out maximum performance out of existing pipes. Data compression is going to be big too, as well as smarter hw drivers for hard drives.
kyriakos 7y ago
Streaming services and online adult will benefit. The only problem in the long run with streaming services is that they will soon run out of fresh content.

ehsankia 7y ago

Streaming sites like Netflix, maybe?

unlinked_dll 7y ago
Maybe Disney, more likely. Hollywood has essentially frozen production and from what I'm hearing they're really not setup for working remote in pre/post (especially the latter). Combine with delayed releases, cancellation of film festivals (which are marketplaces as much as exhibitions for content) and the new releases this year appear to be on a giant delay. Disney is interesting because they have the deepest bench, so to speak in terms of catalog. They also have the kids stuff, and all the kids are at home. They also had their stock dip below $100 with the crash this week, had to shutdown their parks, and quite recently reorganized the entire direct to consumer business. I'd put some money on Disney coming out on top there. Netflix relies on new content to reduce churn. If production is halted I don't know how that looks for them. However if you take out their capex on production, they suddenly become stupidly profitable. So who knows.
- jonknee 7y ago
  Disney is also hemorrhaging cash with their parks closed. Along with resorts and cruises. And their TV advertising just vanished with losing all live sports. The next earnings season is going to be insane.
- ehsankia 7y ago
  Even with it's deep catalog, Disney+ still has far less content than Netflix. I do agree that Netflix relies on new content to reduce churn, but my argument wasn't so much about existing users (churn), but about millions of new people who never had Netflix deciding to sign up because they have nothing else to do at home. As for the rest of people, I agree that when you're competing with hundreds of other sources of entertainment and ways to spend your days, Netflix's catalog may not be amazing, but when most of the population is stuck at home, I'm sure there are plenty of stuff people will find and enjoy on Netflix. Disney is definitely a runner up too. They've started moving releases closers. They just released Frozen 2 and the new Starwars movie digitally.
dogma1138 7y ago
All movie and tv production has been halted, with Netflix losing much of its library to competing services it might not be that good.

grumple 7y ago

Good for Cloud services. In the short term, streaming services are probably more popular than ever. Gaming will probably do quite well with all the students off. Good for video chat apps, slack, Atlassian and other work management systems.

unlinked_dll 7y ago

It seems to be quite bad for the AA in FAANG. Or at least one of them I don't think any analysis is valid right now since we don't know what long term even means at this point. I think the companies that will benefit will be entirely unpredictable, because we're about to fall into a steep descent in our gradient and the optimization of companies business models and products is about to get crazy. Just like '08 and '01.

norswap 7y ago
How can this possibly be bad for Amazon? Deliveries will explode as long as the post keeps running. More web usage also = wins for AWS.
- unlinked_dll 7y ago
  Deliveries take warehouses, truck drivers, ports, and air travel. Especially for things from China. I've already tried buying some stuff I'd normally get at a store from Amazon and the lead time was questionable.
  - totalZero 7y ago
    The lead time for many items is questionable due to demand. Think about the volume of Amazon Pantry orders right now.

dzhiurgis 7y ago

Food delivery, medical (esp respiratory support), funeral services. Probably not really long tho. Better way to think is what is NOT going to change - food, shelter, utilities, telco, etc. Will go down - luxuries, appliances, home improvement, cars, etc.

totalZero 7y ago

AWS will make bank on the infrastructure for so much remote work.

RubberbandSoul 7y ago
That's on the condition that they can keep up with demand or even keep their existing infrastructure running. If the electronics supply chain starts breaking down they can't just throw new hardware at an increasing workload. On top of that there's the fact that existing hardware like hard drives has a best-before date based on the cumulated read/write operations they can handle. I think there's going to be a big demand for engineers and developers that can squeeze out maximum performance out of existing pipes. Data compression is going to be big too, as well as smarter hw drivers for hard drives.

kyriakos 7y ago

Streaming services and online adult will benefit. The only problem in the long run with streaming services is that they will soon run out of fresh content.