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Plenty of us saw this coming as soon as news came out of China - even me [0]. The problem was none of us were able to do anything about it, either on a social o

Plenty of us saw this coming as soon as news came out of China - even me [0]. The problem was none of us were able to do anything about it, either on a social or individual level beyond stocking up on food and other essentials in January before the masses panicked. 0. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22156140 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22156140

blhack 7y ago
It's been a very difficult, helpless feeling watching this all happen. A lot of people were watching from afar what occurred in Wuhan, then saw it spread to SK, Japan, and eventually Italy. When Disney and Starbucks shut down in China it was extremely concerning, and when FoxConn shut down it was terrifying. I've been telling my friends and family that they should be gathering extra food, medications, etc. if for no reason other than the coming supply chain disruptions. At first they laughed, but at this point they seem like they're actually mad at me, and in some senses blame me for the currently bare shelves in supermarkets. It sucks.
- Lucadg 7y ago
  Same here. Tried to alert people in Italy. Laughed at me. Now mad at me. The human mind is indeed fascinating. Still if only one person was saved because of this, it was worth it.
- danieltillett 7y ago
  The feeling I have is like being tied to the railway line and watching the train coming around the bend. Nobody has started to blame me for the situation, but plenty laughed at me at the time when I tried to warn them what is coming. They have stopped laughing.
  - alwillis 7y ago
    Yes. I sometimes feel like the Sarah Conner character in Terminator 2, telling friends and family about judgement day and being derided.
  - skinkestek 7y ago
    The problem is probably that they lumped you up with all the doomsday predictors. I have a certain friend who, for years, have been trying to tell everyone that normal food is bad and imported "superfoods" are the way to go. Same goes for scaremongering of every other kind. I feel for everyone who warned about the corona virus in January there are 5 or 10 who warned about everything else which turns out to be a significantly smaller problem.
- ericol 7y ago
  It's the same from me. I've been trying to talk people into worrying & caring about this for the past 3 weeks in my social group. From the standard "This is just a flu" to the brainless "I don't share your opinion" to now people not caring because they are not in the age bracket that gets affected the most. We're at "just" 2 deaths and slightly over 30 confirmed cases, but we had the gates open for way too long and just this week people coming from Europe is "asked" to quarantine themselves, but the government doesn't want to suspend classes.
- alwillis 7y ago
  I’ve been told I’m inciting panic just for dispassionately commenting on friends and acquaintances Facebook posts. Because of the distrust in our government and institutions, people won’t believe anything until it’s way too late. I’m also frustrated with the “happy talk” people, who think if we just stay positive, everything will be fine in the end. I’ve must have explained a dozen times the difference between what happens when a virus has a mortality rate of 0.1% like the flu vs. Covid19 (on average) at 1–3%, which means it’s 10–30 times more deadly. I was typing it so often that my iPhone was autocompleting chunks of my sentences! I’ve already been invited to a less public discussion group on Facebook for people who get it and are sharing tips, strategies and information on getting through this. I’m thinking about getting my cousins on a conference call to check where their heads are at.
  - petre 7y ago
    I don't believe the gov't when officials say don't panic and it's just a cold. Then they or somebody close to them got it along with the wakeup call.
- interfixus 7y ago
  Same.There are people quite furious at me for having warned them in January when this was just a Chinese blip on their screens. I have fallen out with colleagues over nothing more than taking banal, sensible precautions which don't harm anyone. Eyes are rolled, I am a hysteric. That's going on even now, after my country has gone on unprecedented lockdown. (I am in Denmark, public sector shut down, borders closing today at noon).
usaar333 7y ago
Well, the related question though is not whether it was possible, but would happen (one metric being can you consistently estimate probabilities better). Would most of the people who predicted COVID-19 escaping also have been able to predict SARS would have minimal effect outside of Asia? (Don't forget that China had pretty aggressive lockdowns going on during SARS -- schools closed, gatherings limited, etc. -- though not to the level Wuhan got to).
- danieltillett 7y ago
  Yes. I initially thought it was another SARS until I saw the R0 numbers. As soon as I saw that I knew that only the most aggressive containment policies would prevent this getting out of control. At this point the only issue is how much we can delay the peak and minimise the time we are above the capacity of the medical system.
  - usaar333 7y ago
    I thought r0 numbers were pretty similar? The problem seems to be that containment is harder this time around.
    - danieltillett 7y ago
      No SARS was around 1.2 while COVID-19 is between 2.5 and 4.
zambal 7y ago
I'm honestly a bit surprised about the amount of people that are stocking up on food. What is your motivation for doing so? Is it because you assume essentials will be unavailable because of other people stocking up, or because of eventual pandemic related supply chain issues? Maybe I'm naive, but I just can't imagine that because of the pandemic society will be collapsing to a point that it becomes hard to obtain the food I need for me and my family.
- gibybo 7y ago
  If you are quarantined, your food selection may be severely restricted. I'm sure you'll be able to get food, but it may not be the food you normally like to eat. Additionally, if the virus is rampant in your area, you may not wish to go to grocery stores and risk exposing yourself.
- steve_adams_86 7y ago
  I can't speak for others, but I stocked up simply so I could isolate my family if the virus becomes common in our city. It's about 2 weeks of food for 4 people (me and 3 kids). I don't anticipate the need to isolate but I figured I'd play it safe. I thought this was what others were doing, but now that I think of it I'm just assuming people think as I do. I personally didn't buy 40 rolls of toilet paper.
- inferiorhuman 7y ago
  Social distancing. Last week I had a Trader Joe's cashier blow his nose and immediately start scanning my items. Today I had an old woman behind me in line who couldn't stop touching her face and scratching all over. There are already enough "it's just a flu" people out here I don't really want to wade into that any more than I have to.
- SkyMarshal 7y ago
  1. To avoid the grocery store and other busy social places. Social distancing. 2. To avoid buying food from the grocery store that may have been coughed/sneezed on and still have live virus on it. Stock up on non-perishables while they’re still more likely to be clean. 3. Anticipate shortages due to other people stocking up. 4. This virus came from an animal and can also infect animals. So maybe the outbreak infects animal feedstock and reduces our food supply. Or the outbreak infects Ag workers and reduces our food supply. Or the outbreak disrupts supply chain between farms and table. That kind of thing.
bryanrasmussen 7y ago
Sure, I've spent months being the funny doomsayer guy at work and everyone hah, it's like a flu. no problems. But the difference between me and this guy is he's an expert who saw it coming.

blhack 7y ago

It's been a very difficult, helpless feeling watching this all happen. A lot of people were watching from afar what occurred in Wuhan, then saw it spread to SK, Japan, and eventually Italy. When Disney and Starbucks shut down in China it was extremely concerning, and when FoxConn shut down it was terrifying. I've been telling my friends and family that they should be gathering extra food, medications, etc. if for no reason other than the coming supply chain disruptions. At first they laughed, but at this point they seem like they're actually mad at me, and in some senses blame me for the currently bare shelves in supermarkets. It sucks.

Lucadg 7y ago
Same here. Tried to alert people in Italy. Laughed at me. Now mad at me. The human mind is indeed fascinating. Still if only one person was saved because of this, it was worth it.
danieltillett 7y ago
The feeling I have is like being tied to the railway line and watching the train coming around the bend. Nobody has started to blame me for the situation, but plenty laughed at me at the time when I tried to warn them what is coming. They have stopped laughing.
- alwillis 7y ago
  Yes. I sometimes feel like the Sarah Conner character in Terminator 2, telling friends and family about judgement day and being derided.
- skinkestek 7y ago
  The problem is probably that they lumped you up with all the doomsday predictors. I have a certain friend who, for years, have been trying to tell everyone that normal food is bad and imported "superfoods" are the way to go. Same goes for scaremongering of every other kind. I feel for everyone who warned about the corona virus in January there are 5 or 10 who warned about everything else which turns out to be a significantly smaller problem.
ericol 7y ago
It's the same from me. I've been trying to talk people into worrying & caring about this for the past 3 weeks in my social group. From the standard "This is just a flu" to the brainless "I don't share your opinion" to now people not caring because they are not in the age bracket that gets affected the most. We're at "just" 2 deaths and slightly over 30 confirmed cases, but we had the gates open for way too long and just this week people coming from Europe is "asked" to quarantine themselves, but the government doesn't want to suspend classes.
alwillis 7y ago
I’ve been told I’m inciting panic just for dispassionately commenting on friends and acquaintances Facebook posts. Because of the distrust in our government and institutions, people won’t believe anything until it’s way too late. I’m also frustrated with the “happy talk” people, who think if we just stay positive, everything will be fine in the end. I’ve must have explained a dozen times the difference between what happens when a virus has a mortality rate of 0.1% like the flu vs. Covid19 (on average) at 1–3%, which means it’s 10–30 times more deadly. I was typing it so often that my iPhone was autocompleting chunks of my sentences! I’ve already been invited to a less public discussion group on Facebook for people who get it and are sharing tips, strategies and information on getting through this. I’m thinking about getting my cousins on a conference call to check where their heads are at.
- petre 7y ago
  I don't believe the gov't when officials say don't panic and it's just a cold. Then they or somebody close to them got it along with the wakeup call.
interfixus 7y ago
Same.There are people quite furious at me for having warned them in January when this was just a Chinese blip on their screens. I have fallen out with colleagues over nothing more than taking banal, sensible precautions which don't harm anyone. Eyes are rolled, I am a hysteric. That's going on even now, after my country has gone on unprecedented lockdown. (I am in Denmark, public sector shut down, borders closing today at noon).

usaar333 7y ago

Well, the related question though is not whether it was possible, but would happen (one metric being can you consistently estimate probabilities better). Would most of the people who predicted COVID-19 escaping also have been able to predict SARS would have minimal effect outside of Asia? (Don't forget that China had pretty aggressive lockdowns going on during SARS -- schools closed, gatherings limited, etc. -- though not to the level Wuhan got to).

danieltillett 7y ago
Yes. I initially thought it was another SARS until I saw the R0 numbers. As soon as I saw that I knew that only the most aggressive containment policies would prevent this getting out of control. At this point the only issue is how much we can delay the peak and minimise the time we are above the capacity of the medical system.
- usaar333 7y ago
  I thought r0 numbers were pretty similar? The problem seems to be that containment is harder this time around.
  - danieltillett 7y ago
    No SARS was around 1.2 while COVID-19 is between 2.5 and 4.

zambal 7y ago

I'm honestly a bit surprised about the amount of people that are stocking up on food. What is your motivation for doing so? Is it because you assume essentials will be unavailable because of other people stocking up, or because of eventual pandemic related supply chain issues? Maybe I'm naive, but I just can't imagine that because of the pandemic society will be collapsing to a point that it becomes hard to obtain the food I need for me and my family.

gibybo 7y ago
If you are quarantined, your food selection may be severely restricted. I'm sure you'll be able to get food, but it may not be the food you normally like to eat. Additionally, if the virus is rampant in your area, you may not wish to go to grocery stores and risk exposing yourself.
steve_adams_86 7y ago
I can't speak for others, but I stocked up simply so I could isolate my family if the virus becomes common in our city. It's about 2 weeks of food for 4 people (me and 3 kids). I don't anticipate the need to isolate but I figured I'd play it safe. I thought this was what others were doing, but now that I think of it I'm just assuming people think as I do. I personally didn't buy 40 rolls of toilet paper.
inferiorhuman 7y ago
Social distancing. Last week I had a Trader Joe's cashier blow his nose and immediately start scanning my items. Today I had an old woman behind me in line who couldn't stop touching her face and scratching all over. There are already enough "it's just a flu" people out here I don't really want to wade into that any more than I have to.
SkyMarshal 7y ago
1. To avoid the grocery store and other busy social places. Social distancing. 2. To avoid buying food from the grocery store that may have been coughed/sneezed on and still have live virus on it. Stock up on non-perishables while they’re still more likely to be clean. 3. Anticipate shortages due to other people stocking up. 4. This virus came from an animal and can also infect animals. So maybe the outbreak infects animal feedstock and reduces our food supply. Or the outbreak infects Ag workers and reduces our food supply. Or the outbreak disrupts supply chain between farms and table. That kind of thing.

bryanrasmussen 7y ago

Sure, I've spent months being the funny doomsayer guy at work and everyone hah, it's like a flu. no problems. But the difference between me and this guy is he's an expert who saw it coming.