4 ms·

But you can trace all of that after the fact. If you have a positive result you can go prove it later. If you have a negative result you can go prove that later

But you can trace all of that after the fact. If you have a positive result you can go prove it later. If you have a negative result you can go prove that later. But you can at least start by acting on the result.

jayliew 7y ago
So if you get a negative result from the test-kit, you let the person go, then later after the fact, you realize that it's a false-negative and you shouldn't have let the patient go ... now you've just spread the virus even more
- hjanssen 7y ago
  The alternative as it seems right now is to not test at all.
  - jayliew 7y ago
    I'd argue that that is better. Because if you're not tested, you know that you don't know. But if you get a false-negative (the test tells you're not infected, but you actually are), you think you're not infected, you may go about your daily life infecting other people.
    - csnover 7y ago
      You’re assuming that most people will act responsibly and not go about their daily lives infecting other people if they know that they don’t know. This goes against my personal experience of how many humans behave. It’s equally plausible to me that someone receiving a false negative will take extra precautions in order to avoid becoming sick themselves, instead of deciding (in the absence of a test) that they are infected and so don’t need to be careful about protecting themselves any more.
  - masonic 7y ago
    Unfortunately, a no-test is preferable to a false negative. Even with known good kits, we are getting negative and positive results from the same patient, most often throat- negative and anal-positive. When a carrier receives a false negative, behavior changes toward risk.
    - scotty79 7y ago
      Maybe in ebola but not flu. And this is more like flu. Eventually almost everyone will get it. Possibly more than once.
ryandrake 7y ago
Exactly. At this point only irredeemable bureaucrats care whether a face mask meets ISO-12345 compliance or a test kit has documents stamped by the right government Deputy Inspector of Inspectors. Bring the things in and worry about the right official seals of approval later.
- robomartin 7y ago
  That's insane. If the untraceable masks only block particles larger than 1 micron rather than 0.3 microns, they are useless. If instead of being true N95 they are N80, they are deadly junk. This isn't about bureaucracy, this is about engineering and science. Junk is junk, and it can kill you when you assume you are being protected (or protecting others) and you are not because they lied to you.
  - mythrwy 7y ago
    Pretty quick check that. Your cynicism is astounding.
    - robomartin 7y ago
      At least I am not ignorant, or naive. That's dangerous.
      - scotty79 7y ago
        You are ignorant because you assume US tests and masks are vastly superior to Chinese tests and masks for this application. Masks, even perfect ones barely do anything for something that infectious and tests are more for statistics to inform high level decision making than anything else. Staying away from people is the only thing that measurably does anything.
        robomartin 7y ago
        > You are ignorant because you assume US tests and masks are vastly superior to Chinese tests and masks for this application. Nope. That is not what I said at all. Not even close. Stop making up stuff that someone never said. What I said, very clearly, is that the difference is in TRACEABILITY and, not directly but implied, adherence to REAL SPECIFICATIONS, PERFORMANCE AND QUALITY. The Chinese are FAMOUS for taking shortcuts, faking regulatory testing, ignoring safety in designs, having contaminated and less-than-ideal work and manufacturing environments, etc. The only way you make things in China and don't get shafted in a big way is if you supervise the heck out of them. Yes, there are large reputable manufacturers, and most of them are the result of years of this kind of supervision and process improvement by the likes of Apple. Sadly, unless you operating at that scale, most companies making product in China do not necessarily have the same assurances an Apple, HP or <insert major brand> might have. In fact, the quality problem is so serious that there's a whole industry of factory inspection companies who's job is to go to the factory making your product to inspect the product you ordered before it ships. Let me say that again, you hire outside inspectors to go into the factory and inspect and test your product before it ships in order to ensure you don't get shafted. Think about that for a moment. In the US and Europe it is UNTHINKABLE to have to hire a third party to go and inspect product we produce. We provide specifications and test criteria and then expect and trust our contract manufacturer will deliver what we ordered. In China you do that at your peril. The people who are reacting negatively to my comments are doing so while completely devoid of experience and an understanding of the realities in China. You can't know this by buying an iPhone and sitting behind your screen reading HN. Those who know and understand China know exactly what I am talking about. Are there great factories and contract manufacturers in China? Absolutely! Do you still have to go there and supervise the work? Absolutely! So, please, pretty please, don't call someone ignorant when you don't really understand what you are talking about. I am just sick of this culture where insults are a replacement for taking the time to learn something and understand. > Masks, even perfect ones barely do anything for something that infectious and tests are more for statistics to inform high level decision making than anything else. Irrelevant nonsense. > Staying away from people is the only thing that measurably does anything. No. So does washing your hands, not touching your face, cleaning/disinfecting the work environment, etc. It isn't the "only" thing, it's one of many things. And yet, it is completely irrelevant and has nothing to do with my proposal that, at the end of the day, a bunch of free masks and kits with no traceability and quality control are a terrible idea and not a gift we should accept or use in any way. Here's a hypothetical scenario for you: You have two rooms. Each with 24 people. All of them have absolutely confirmed COVID-19 infection. You are allowed to wear gloves and a mask. Your job is to check their vital signs and do a general checkup. You have to touch them. You have to interact with them. You have to get close to them. You might have to take their masks off for some tests. You get to choose from two options: Room 1: Everyone, including yourself, is wearing US-made masks made by 3M that are traceable and are tested to be within 3M and government specifications. Room 2: Everyone, including yourself, is wearing Chinese-made masks given as gifts by some dude. We have not traceability information and they say they were tested according to US standards but nobody can tell us where they were made (which factory), who tested them and who supervised and confirmed the testing and manufacturing. Which room do you go into? Right.
robomartin 7y ago
> But you can trace all of that after the fact. No, you can't. You clearly don't understand the subject. The most you might be able to do is say "Hmmm, we are getting three times more false positives". By that time you will have wasted a ton of time, overwhelmed hospitals with people who did not need to be there and no, despite your belief, there is no way (or point really) to trace it, at least nothing that is going to help your medical system to avoid collapse. There is no substitute for quality and traceability when lives matter. None.
- jessaustin 7y ago
  Why do you believe so strongly that China can't manufacture reliable health products? Most of the health products we've been using for decades are manufactured in China! They are currently operating a fairly successful effort against this disease, and the tests in question are a part of that effort. No one in USA has done the basic work in this field. SMH.
  - robomartin 7y ago
    ALL quality medical products and supplies coming out of China, all of them, are made under intense western supervision and quality control. Only after a factory has proven itself that it can be relied upon are they trusted. And, even then, the supervision does not go away. I would not manufacture coffee mugs in China without supervision. No way. Has everyone forgotten the iPhone chargers that go up in flames? How do you think that happens?
  - refurb 7y ago
    You can't sell products in the US, that were made in China, without FDA approval.
    - jessaustin 7y ago
      A) FDA has some authority over food and drugs, not "products". B) No one is selling unapproved products.

jayliew 7y ago

So if you get a negative result from the test-kit, you let the person go, then later after the fact, you realize that it's a false-negative and you shouldn't have let the patient go ... now you've just spread the virus even more

hjanssen 7y ago
The alternative as it seems right now is to not test at all.
- jayliew 7y ago
  I'd argue that that is better. Because if you're not tested, you know that you don't know. But if you get a false-negative (the test tells you're not infected, but you actually are), you think you're not infected, you may go about your daily life infecting other people.
  - csnover 7y ago
    You’re assuming that most people will act responsibly and not go about their daily lives infecting other people if they know that they don’t know. This goes against my personal experience of how many humans behave. It’s equally plausible to me that someone receiving a false negative will take extra precautions in order to avoid becoming sick themselves, instead of deciding (in the absence of a test) that they are infected and so don’t need to be careful about protecting themselves any more.
- masonic 7y ago
  Unfortunately, a no-test is preferable to a false negative. Even with known good kits, we are getting negative and positive results from the same patient, most often throat- negative and anal-positive. When a carrier receives a false negative, behavior changes toward risk.
  - scotty79 7y ago
    Maybe in ebola but not flu. And this is more like flu. Eventually almost everyone will get it. Possibly more than once.

ryandrake 7y ago

Exactly. At this point only irredeemable bureaucrats care whether a face mask meets ISO-12345 compliance or a test kit has documents stamped by the right government Deputy Inspector of Inspectors. Bring the things in and worry about the right official seals of approval later.

robomartin 7y ago
That's insane. If the untraceable masks only block particles larger than 1 micron rather than 0.3 microns, they are useless. If instead of being true N95 they are N80, they are deadly junk. This isn't about bureaucracy, this is about engineering and science. Junk is junk, and it can kill you when you assume you are being protected (or protecting others) and you are not because they lied to you.
- mythrwy 7y ago
  Pretty quick check that. Your cynicism is astounding.
  - robomartin 7y ago
    At least I am not ignorant, or naive. That's dangerous.
    - scotty79 7y ago
      You are ignorant because you assume US tests and masks are vastly superior to Chinese tests and masks for this application. Masks, even perfect ones barely do anything for something that infectious and tests are more for statistics to inform high level decision making than anything else. Staying away from people is the only thing that measurably does anything.
      - robomartin 7y ago
        > You are ignorant because you assume US tests and masks are vastly superior to Chinese tests and masks for this application. Nope. That is not what I said at all. Not even close. Stop making up stuff that someone never said. What I said, very clearly, is that the difference is in TRACEABILITY and, not directly but implied, adherence to REAL SPECIFICATIONS, PERFORMANCE AND QUALITY. The Chinese are FAMOUS for taking shortcuts, faking regulatory testing, ignoring safety in designs, having contaminated and less-than-ideal work and manufacturing environments, etc. The only way you make things in China and don't get shafted in a big way is if you supervise the heck out of them. Yes, there are large reputable manufacturers, and most of them are the result of years of this kind of supervision and process improvement by the likes of Apple. Sadly, unless you operating at that scale, most companies making product in China do not necessarily have the same assurances an Apple, HP or <insert major brand> might have. In fact, the quality problem is so serious that there's a whole industry of factory inspection companies who's job is to go to the factory making your product to inspect the product you ordered before it ships. Let me say that again, you hire outside inspectors to go into the factory and inspect and test your product before it ships in order to ensure you don't get shafted. Think about that for a moment. In the US and Europe it is UNTHINKABLE to have to hire a third party to go and inspect product we produce. We provide specifications and test criteria and then expect and trust our contract manufacturer will deliver what we ordered. In China you do that at your peril. The people who are reacting negatively to my comments are doing so while completely devoid of experience and an understanding of the realities in China. You can't know this by buying an iPhone and sitting behind your screen reading HN. Those who know and understand China know exactly what I am talking about. Are there great factories and contract manufacturers in China? Absolutely! Do you still have to go there and supervise the work? Absolutely! So, please, pretty please, don't call someone ignorant when you don't really understand what you are talking about. I am just sick of this culture where insults are a replacement for taking the time to learn something and understand. > Masks, even perfect ones barely do anything for something that infectious and tests are more for statistics to inform high level decision making than anything else. Irrelevant nonsense. > Staying away from people is the only thing that measurably does anything. No. So does washing your hands, not touching your face, cleaning/disinfecting the work environment, etc. It isn't the "only" thing, it's one of many things. And yet, it is completely irrelevant and has nothing to do with my proposal that, at the end of the day, a bunch of free masks and kits with no traceability and quality control are a terrible idea and not a gift we should accept or use in any way. Here's a hypothetical scenario for you: You have two rooms. Each with 24 people. All of them have absolutely confirmed COVID-19 infection. You are allowed to wear gloves and a mask. Your job is to check their vital signs and do a general checkup. You have to touch them. You have to interact with them. You have to get close to them. You might have to take their masks off for some tests. You get to choose from two options: Room 1: Everyone, including yourself, is wearing US-made masks made by 3M that are traceable and are tested to be within 3M and government specifications. Room 2: Everyone, including yourself, is wearing Chinese-made masks given as gifts by some dude. We have not traceability information and they say they were tested according to US standards but nobody can tell us where they were made (which factory), who tested them and who supervised and confirmed the testing and manufacturing. Which room do you go into? Right.

robomartin 7y ago

> But you can trace all of that after the fact. No, you can't. You clearly don't understand the subject. The most you might be able to do is say "Hmmm, we are getting three times more false positives". By that time you will have wasted a ton of time, overwhelmed hospitals with people who did not need to be there and no, despite your belief, there is no way (or point really) to trace it, at least nothing that is going to help your medical system to avoid collapse. There is no substitute for quality and traceability when lives matter. None.

jessaustin 7y ago
Why do you believe so strongly that China can't manufacture reliable health products? Most of the health products we've been using for decades are manufactured in China! They are currently operating a fairly successful effort against this disease, and the tests in question are a part of that effort. No one in USA has done the basic work in this field. SMH.
- robomartin 7y ago
  ALL quality medical products and supplies coming out of China, all of them, are made under intense western supervision and quality control. Only after a factory has proven itself that it can be relied upon are they trusted. And, even then, the supervision does not go away. I would not manufacture coffee mugs in China without supervision. No way. Has everyone forgotten the iPhone chargers that go up in flames? How do you think that happens?
- refurb 7y ago
  You can't sell products in the US, that were made in China, without FDA approval.
  - jessaustin 7y ago
    A) FDA has some authority over food and drugs, not "products". B) No one is selling unapproved products.