4 ms·

This will be over--one way or another--in 2 months.

by onetimemanytime 7y ago

SketchySeaBeast 7y ago
That seems optimistic considering it's been months getting to this point and we're not even at the peak of anything.
lukevdp 7y ago
What makes you say that? This could stretch over a year. We have already been 3 months and nowhere near peak yet.
- kangnkodos 7y ago
  At the current exponential rate of worldwide growth, by the end of June, we will be in one of these two scenarios: 1) Almost everyone in the world who is susceptible has it, or had it. 2) We implemented a way to slow down the global growth rate, or it slowed down by itself. One way or another, we will know in a just a few months. If you want to check the math, skip to about 3:20 on this video from 3Blue1Brown, Exponential growth and epidemics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg
stinos 7y ago
I assume you think so because it looks like 'standard' influenza which has a hard time surviving in spring. It's understandable to think that, problem is it's completely not known whether this virus also behaves like that.
- hokumguru 7y ago
  SARS dissipated quite quickly come the warmer months, hopefully this similar coronavirus does as well. It's the best we can hope for right now.
  - kangnkodos 7y ago
    It's the end of summer in Brazil, and they have 151 cases. Unfortunately, that makes me think summer is not going to stop this one.
  - noxer 7y ago
    SARS was highly invective several days after first symptoms. SARS stooped because people who had it could be contained. There is no evidence that warmer months helped in any way. It's one of these modern myths or however we call them.
- pvaldes 7y ago
  > influenza which has a hard time surviving in spring The problem is than when we will reach summer, half of the planet will start the winter. A interesting question is if the coronavirus will be able to hide in the southern hemisphere or not. That would start and endless migration cycle from now on.
dlp211 7y ago
This is absolutely what we don't want to happen. If this is over in 2 months, there will be a lot of dead people. We want to stretch this out. We need to not overwhelm our healthcare system. Social distancing does not prevent the spread of the disease, it merely slows it until either we gain herd immunity or we develop a vaccine.
- onetimemanytime 7y ago
  It might come back in October, and Trump declared emergency probably too late. I think we've reached the point where we will see a LOT of infections and deaths. There was /is a chart that showed how it behaves and how counties were just a week or two behind an Italian scenario. States are reporting that thousands and thousands have been infected and those will infect many more https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-limits-crowds-preps-for-new-case-surge-as-weary-nation-fights-to-curb-pandemic/2324864/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-limits-crowds-prep... a lot of people died in Italy https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
  - dlp211 7y ago
    It might not go away. And he did declare the emergency too late. And even after declaring the emergency, the federal government is still not doing enough, and it's especially not doing it fast enough. I think we are at the point where we will see a lot of infections. I think we will see a lot of death from this as well, but it will be at the lower end of the case fatality rate range as long as we can do the things we need to in order to not overwhelm our healthcare system. If however I am wrong, and we do overwhelm the healthcare system like they did in Italy, yea, there is going to be a lot more death.
    - kangnkodos 7y ago
      Taking the exponential growth into account, we're somewhere around 11 days behind Italy. Unless something drastic changes in the next few days, whatever Italy is going through now, is what we will be going through in only 11 days. See the chart in this article for details on the 11 day difference. https://www.econlib.org/the-answer-one-week/ https://www.econlib.org/the-answer-one-week/

This will be over--one way or another--in 2 months.

SketchySeaBeast 7y ago

That seems optimistic considering it's been months getting to this point and we're not even at the peak of anything.

lukevdp 7y ago

What makes you say that? This could stretch over a year. We have already been 3 months and nowhere near peak yet.

kangnkodos 7y ago
At the current exponential rate of worldwide growth, by the end of June, we will be in one of these two scenarios: 1) Almost everyone in the world who is susceptible has it, or had it. 2) We implemented a way to slow down the global growth rate, or it slowed down by itself. One way or another, we will know in a just a few months. If you want to check the math, skip to about 3:20 on this video from 3Blue1Brown, Exponential growth and epidemics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

stinos 7y ago

I assume you think so because it looks like 'standard' influenza which has a hard time surviving in spring. It's understandable to think that, problem is it's completely not known whether this virus also behaves like that.

hokumguru 7y ago
SARS dissipated quite quickly come the warmer months, hopefully this similar coronavirus does as well. It's the best we can hope for right now.
- kangnkodos 7y ago
  It's the end of summer in Brazil, and they have 151 cases. Unfortunately, that makes me think summer is not going to stop this one.
- noxer 7y ago
  SARS was highly invective several days after first symptoms. SARS stooped because people who had it could be contained. There is no evidence that warmer months helped in any way. It's one of these modern myths or however we call them.
pvaldes 7y ago
> influenza which has a hard time surviving in spring The problem is than when we will reach summer, half of the planet will start the winter. A interesting question is if the coronavirus will be able to hide in the southern hemisphere or not. That would start and endless migration cycle from now on.

dlp211 7y ago

This is absolutely what we don't want to happen. If this is over in 2 months, there will be a lot of dead people. We want to stretch this out. We need to not overwhelm our healthcare system. Social distancing does not prevent the spread of the disease, it merely slows it until either we gain herd immunity or we develop a vaccine.

onetimemanytime 7y ago
It might come back in October, and Trump declared emergency probably too late. I think we've reached the point where we will see a LOT of infections and deaths. There was /is a chart that showed how it behaves and how counties were just a week or two behind an Italian scenario. States are reporting that thousands and thousands have been infected and those will infect many more https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-limits-crowds-preps-for-new-case-surge-as-weary-nation-fights-to-curb-pandemic/2324864/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-limits-crowds-prep... a lot of people died in Italy https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
- dlp211 7y ago
  It might not go away. And he did declare the emergency too late. And even after declaring the emergency, the federal government is still not doing enough, and it's especially not doing it fast enough. I think we are at the point where we will see a lot of infections. I think we will see a lot of death from this as well, but it will be at the lower end of the case fatality rate range as long as we can do the things we need to in order to not overwhelm our healthcare system. If however I am wrong, and we do overwhelm the healthcare system like they did in Italy, yea, there is going to be a lot more death.
  - kangnkodos 7y ago
    Taking the exponential growth into account, we're somewhere around 11 days behind Italy. Unless something drastic changes in the next few days, whatever Italy is going through now, is what we will be going through in only 11 days. See the chart in this article for details on the 11 day difference. https://www.econlib.org/the-answer-one-week/ https://www.econlib.org/the-answer-one-week/