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If it's mutating, would it be better to get the virus early, before it mutates to something more severe?

by fractal618 7y ago

dukha 7y ago
Typically viruses mutates to less severe variants because it allows them to infect more people.
- scotty79 7y ago
  I think this is true for very lethal viruses that have risk of killing host before spreading. For virus that can spread before any symptoms and long after symptoms disappear and survive so long on the objects and in the air I think there will be no evolutionary pressure to get milder. And we can get harsher version just by random chance because this virus is so infectious that it has a lot of leniency whether and when to kill the host.
Zancarius 7y ago
Mutating doesn't mean it's going to get worse. It's entirely possible for the virus to mutate into a less dangerous form. Going out of your way to get it now is too much of a risk. While I don't believe SARS-CoV-2 is quite as bad as the media frenzy is making it out to be, it's absolutely a good idea to do everything you can to avoid getting it. The same goes for the flu and for colds. If you catch any of these, you may be OK, but you risk spreading it to people who won't be.
- NortySpock 7y ago
  1-3% case fatality rate? 70% of the population expected to be infected. That's ~1 out of every 100 people. This isn't just a media frenzy, by the end of this you WILL know someone who died as a result of (complications of) Coronavirus.
  - zadler 7y ago
    And yet a lot of countries seem to have controlled it to a great extent. China, South Korea, japan, Singapore. They’re not showing explosive numbers.
    - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
      They're not reporting explosive numbers...
      - vanniv 7y ago
        Other that for China, do you have any evidence the numbers are doctored? Especially South Korea, which has been very transparent and done a ton of testing.
  - llampx 7y ago
    In Italy, the numbers are closer to 7%
    - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
      But its hard to believe they report infection rate properly. It may be 7% of those with symptoms (arriving at hospital)? Which is expected to be a 'cherry picked' subset and have a higher rate.
tejtm 7y ago
selective pressure should favor mutating to something not worse as the worse ones get more notice, avoidance and the hosts don't last as long.

If it's mutating, would it be better to get the virus early, before it mutates to something more severe?

dukha 7y ago

Typically viruses mutates to less severe variants because it allows them to infect more people.

scotty79 7y ago
I think this is true for very lethal viruses that have risk of killing host before spreading. For virus that can spread before any symptoms and long after symptoms disappear and survive so long on the objects and in the air I think there will be no evolutionary pressure to get milder. And we can get harsher version just by random chance because this virus is so infectious that it has a lot of leniency whether and when to kill the host.

Zancarius 7y ago

Mutating doesn't mean it's going to get worse. It's entirely possible for the virus to mutate into a less dangerous form. Going out of your way to get it now is too much of a risk. While I don't believe SARS-CoV-2 is quite as bad as the media frenzy is making it out to be, it's absolutely a good idea to do everything you can to avoid getting it. The same goes for the flu and for colds. If you catch any of these, you may be OK, but you risk spreading it to people who won't be.

NortySpock 7y ago
1-3% case fatality rate? 70% of the population expected to be infected. That's ~1 out of every 100 people. This isn't just a media frenzy, by the end of this you WILL know someone who died as a result of (complications of) Coronavirus.
- zadler 7y ago
  And yet a lot of countries seem to have controlled it to a great extent. China, South Korea, japan, Singapore. They’re not showing explosive numbers.
  - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
    They're not reporting explosive numbers...
    - vanniv 7y ago
      Other that for China, do you have any evidence the numbers are doctored? Especially South Korea, which has been very transparent and done a ton of testing.
- llampx 7y ago
  In Italy, the numbers are closer to 7%
  - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
    But its hard to believe they report infection rate properly. It may be 7% of those with symptoms (arriving at hospital)? Which is expected to be a 'cherry picked' subset and have a higher rate.

tejtm 7y ago

selective pressure should favor mutating to something not worse as the worse ones get more notice, avoidance and the hosts don't last as long.