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Like I read in a post in LessWrong, it's much better to try to avoid contagion until after the peak of the pandemic, so that there are more resources freed up (
by drKarl 7y ago
Like I read in a post in LessWrong, it's much better to try to avoid contagion until after the peak of the pandemic, so that there are more resources freed up (hospital beds, respirators, etc) and the doctors and health workers have more experience in dealing with this particular virus, maybe there's existing drugs that have proven effective with this virus unlike on the early stages where they don't know what drugs to use (apparently some HIV drugs could potentially be useful against SARS-CoV-2). Not new drugs specifically develop for this virus, that could be years from now.
So, social distancing, try to avoid crowds, try to stay at home, clean your hands (follow the protocol to clean them), clean and disinfect surfaces, WFH if possible, and so on... Anecdotally, I think the UK strategy of letting the virus run its course so that the country gets some sort of herd immunity it's a very dangerous bet... Lots of elderly people in the country will die, and it won't guarantee any immunity as people have gotten the disease twice. Maybe they are counting on lots of elderly people dying to save on pensions and healthcare costs (healthcare is public and free in the UK).
- goodcanadian 7y agoI think the UK strategy of letting the virus run its course . . . This is not my impression of the UK strategy at all. Until now, there has been very aggressive contact tracing and testing. There has been no need for mass closures and restrictions. The strategy is now shifting. I suspect those closures and restrictions are coming. There is danger in doing it too early, however, and definitely no point in isolating people who in all likelihood are perfectly healthy.
- drKarl 7y agohttps://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/british-government-wants-uk-to-acquire-coronavirus-herd-immunity-writes-robert-peston/ https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/british-government-wants... "The strategy of the British government in minimising the impact of Covid-19 is to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so that we acquire herd immunity" https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11164977/millions-uk-coronavirus-herd-immunity/ https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11164977/millions-uk-coronavir... If you search about this you'll find many other sources... So basically the UK wants to acquire herd immunity as a country, which I assume is at the expense of all the elderly people who will die as a result... Also relevant https://twitter.com/daverooney/status/1238359192249008128 https://twitter.com/daverooney/status/1238359192249008128
- thinkingemote 7y agoThe point I think is one of delaying things "Letting it run its course" implies no action, which would be not correct. Herd immunity is desired but with change in the nature of the epidemic so that old people don't die as much as if they did nothing. Also herd immunity.is not 100%, you just need a certain high proportion. If you can protect those most at risk also then it could work.
- thinkingemote 7y agoThe getting the disease twice may not be a fact.
- drKarl 7y agoSee https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-re... https://fortune.com/2020/03/06/coronavirus-recover-test-positive-twice/ https://fortune.com/2020/03/06/coronavirus-recover-test-posi...