7 ms·

>The list is endless of what we didn't have in 1918, from computers to do DNA sequencing to even testing the way we do today. And the vast majority is useless

>The list is endless of what we didn't have in 1918, from computers to do DNA sequencing to even testing the way we do today. And the vast majority is useless to people when you've got 100x more patients than you can deal with.

sschueller 7y ago
China was able to build a 645,000-square-foot medical facility in 10 days with 30 ICU units and 1000 beds. Coordinating such a feat in such a short time would not have been possible in 1918.
- jfkebwjsbx 7y ago
  Keyword: China. Not many countries (any?) have the capability to build things as fast as China does. And even if a country has them, China is the source of so many supplies that they will simply keep them for themselves. Let this be a lesson to avoid dependencies on a single entity.
  - TheNorthman 7y ago
    > that they will simply keep them for themselves Not true, China has sent, and are continuing to do so, aid to, amongst others, Italy and Spain [1], including 100k respirators [2]. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-aid/china-offers-aid-to-spain-to-fight-coronavirus-spanish-government-source-idUSKBN20Z27G https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-... [2]: https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_10/coronavirus-mille-respiratori-cina-telefonata-maio-wang-yi-faa5f50a-62b6-11ea-a693-c7191bf8b498.shtml https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_10/coronavirus-mil...
- Xelbair 7y ago
  It kinda simpler to do if you have all the manufacturing under your control(as west moved all production to china), and have construction companies used to such rapid development(building useless buildings for sole purpose of keeping people employed)
- fock 7y ago
  well, the ICU units are the main problem here. I guess other countries would choose to upgrade existing rooms here. And a 1000 beds in rooms with drywall separation - we did this in Germany for the refugees and (maybe contrary to China) we have a relative abundance of existing superstructures (communal gyms, old military sites)...
  - hef19898 7y ago
    We also have tons of old, maybe obsolete I don't knw, military and emergency stuff sitting in warehouses for things like that from the cold war. My impression is that all measures currently being taken are there make sure we don't need to go to these extremes.
- Someone 7y ago
  That’s less than one bed per million heads, country-wise. I think the militaries of many rich countries can do the same today, scaled for population (they will use containers, but that’s what was used for that Chinese hospital, too) I also think many countries could do something similar (ignoring technical progress) in 1918, given they had had ample practice in world war 1.
- onetimemanytime 7y ago
  >> China was able to build a 645,000-square-foot medical facility in 10 days with 30 ICU units and 1000 beds. Coordinating such a feat in such a short time would not have been possible in 1918. While its a great feat--and China is prob the only country that can do it--that's nothing if we get hundreds of millions infected with a virulent version. 30 ICU units might serve a town with 35000 people
- gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
  Of course it was. We built battleships in weeks then.
  - greedo 7y ago
    Not quite. We built Liberty ships in extremely fast timeframes, but more substantial ships took far longer. The long lead time components could take a year or more.
- bart_spoon 7y ago
  Well the US is struggling just figuring out how to test for the disease on anything but the smallest of scales, so I doubt anything like that is replicable here.
ethbro 7y ago
Genetic sequencing and RT-PCR are still pretty useful. You're essentially making the claim that having electricity is worthless, if there isn't enough for everyone to run a heater. Apples and oranges.
- TheOtherHobbes 7y ago
  Having electricity is worthless if there isn't enough for anyone to run a heater, because it's all being used to run a protein folding simulation no one needs. It's about intelligent use of strategic resources, not the fact that those resources exist at all. It's not obvious that we're better at intelligent use of strategic resources than we were a century ago. Our economic systems promote brutal winner-takes-all internal competition, not strategic cooperation, and that makes them ridiculously brittle when they have to deal with an unexpected stressor.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    Assuming that we are as stupid at using strategic resources as our ancestors back in 1918, we do have a lot more of them. With much easier coordination and communication. and mch higher degree of automation, requiring an order of magnitude smaller work force to keep things running.

sschueller 7y ago

China was able to build a 645,000-square-foot medical facility in 10 days with 30 ICU units and 1000 beds. Coordinating such a feat in such a short time would not have been possible in 1918.

jfkebwjsbx 7y ago
Keyword: China. Not many countries (any?) have the capability to build things as fast as China does. And even if a country has them, China is the source of so many supplies that they will simply keep them for themselves. Let this be a lesson to avoid dependencies on a single entity.
- TheNorthman 7y ago
  > that they will simply keep them for themselves Not true, China has sent, and are continuing to do so, aid to, amongst others, Italy and Spain [1], including 100k respirators [2]. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-aid/china-offers-aid-to-spain-to-fight-coronavirus-spanish-government-source-idUSKBN20Z27G https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-... [2]: https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_10/coronavirus-mille-respiratori-cina-telefonata-maio-wang-yi-faa5f50a-62b6-11ea-a693-c7191bf8b498.shtml https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_10/coronavirus-mil...
Xelbair 7y ago
It kinda simpler to do if you have all the manufacturing under your control(as west moved all production to china), and have construction companies used to such rapid development(building useless buildings for sole purpose of keeping people employed)
fock 7y ago
well, the ICU units are the main problem here. I guess other countries would choose to upgrade existing rooms here. And a 1000 beds in rooms with drywall separation - we did this in Germany for the refugees and (maybe contrary to China) we have a relative abundance of existing superstructures (communal gyms, old military sites)...
- hef19898 7y ago
  We also have tons of old, maybe obsolete I don't knw, military and emergency stuff sitting in warehouses for things like that from the cold war. My impression is that all measures currently being taken are there make sure we don't need to go to these extremes.
Someone 7y ago
That’s less than one bed per million heads, country-wise. I think the militaries of many rich countries can do the same today, scaled for population (they will use containers, but that’s what was used for that Chinese hospital, too) I also think many countries could do something similar (ignoring technical progress) in 1918, given they had had ample practice in world war 1.
onetimemanytime 7y ago
>> China was able to build a 645,000-square-foot medical facility in 10 days with 30 ICU units and 1000 beds. Coordinating such a feat in such a short time would not have been possible in 1918. While its a great feat--and China is prob the only country that can do it--that's nothing if we get hundreds of millions infected with a virulent version. 30 ICU units might serve a town with 35000 people
gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
Of course it was. We built battleships in weeks then.
- greedo 7y ago
  Not quite. We built Liberty ships in extremely fast timeframes, but more substantial ships took far longer. The long lead time components could take a year or more.
bart_spoon 7y ago
Well the US is struggling just figuring out how to test for the disease on anything but the smallest of scales, so I doubt anything like that is replicable here.

ethbro 7y ago

Genetic sequencing and RT-PCR are still pretty useful. You're essentially making the claim that having electricity is worthless, if there isn't enough for everyone to run a heater. Apples and oranges.

TheOtherHobbes 7y ago
Having electricity is worthless if there isn't enough for anyone to run a heater, because it's all being used to run a protein folding simulation no one needs. It's about intelligent use of strategic resources, not the fact that those resources exist at all. It's not obvious that we're better at intelligent use of strategic resources than we were a century ago. Our economic systems promote brutal winner-takes-all internal competition, not strategic cooperation, and that makes them ridiculously brittle when they have to deal with an unexpected stressor.
- hef19898 7y ago
  Assuming that we are as stupid at using strategic resources as our ancestors back in 1918, we do have a lot more of them. With much easier coordination and communication. and mch higher degree of automation, requiring an order of magnitude smaller work force to keep things running.