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"The virus infected 500 million people worldwide and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims" "Somewhere in Europe, a mutated strain of the Spanis

"The virus infected 500 million people worldwide and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims" "Somewhere in Europe, a mutated strain of the Spanish flu virus had emerged that had the power to kill a perfectly healthy young man or woman within 24 hours of showing the first signs of infection." I knew this, but its still utterly terrifying to see it expressed so bluntly. As the article says, rapid population movement was a key factor in its spread and mutation. We can't take the world back to a time when international travel was rare, so when we're done with the immediate effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, we (as a species) need to get better at rapid vaccine creation. Like an order of magnitude better. Otherwise the next one could be one that takes us down.

avip 7y ago
Can we not? Why can't Australia for example close all borders and call it the day?
- saagarjha 7y ago
  Because Australia already has a number of cases?
- mikekchar 7y ago
  For one thing, most countries are not self sufficient in basic necessities (not even food!). You could do it for a very short time, but not sustain it. Also, the economy of the country depends on international trade. Modern economies actually don't have a lot of slack. If you shut down trade, quite a few companies will just go under. You would have to back that up with huge subsidies. It would be a massive undertaking.
  - avip 7y ago
    Sure but shutting down all schools also shuts down the economy. Isn't closing borders for people, a more cost effective course of action ?
  - asah 7y ago
    Viruses don't live long enough to survive ocean shipping, so as long as the (tiny) crew is kept isolated, ocean shipping is fine. Within a country, it's not hard to disinfect a truck and keep the driver isolated. Of course, if the originating factory is shut, then you're screwed - but that's true regardless of trade. Also worth noting: it takes a tiny number of people to produce tons of food (calories). Maybe not true for artisanal salami but for bulk basics.
    - blaser-waffle 7y ago
      The US is the single largest exporter of grain in the world. Not the largest producer, not the largest consumer, but the largest exporter. And the US farming population is ~1% of the total US pop. Modern tractors and combines are amazing. Doesn't mean there aren't a ton of bodies involved in processing and transportation, though. You can probably find local-ish wheat in the US, but you're not going to boil and eat the wheat berries for a porridge like it's 1850 (though you could); you're going to buy breakfast cereal.
  - trevyn 7y ago
    You don’t need a whole modern economy to feed people.
  - coldtea 7y ago
    Well, if there's a widespread virus that has "the power to kill a perfectly healthy young man or woman within 24 hours of showing the first signs of infection" the "economy" and "international trade" would be the least of our worries...
- andyjohnson0 7y ago
  In addition to the reasons others have given (self-sufficiency, and it being too late this time), closed boarders as a general and ongoing solution is very brittle. All it takes is one infected person to get across the border and you have no defence-in-depth. As a short-term measure in combination with other public health efforts, it might have some merit, but thats all really.
ailideex 7y ago
> need to get better at rapid vaccine creation. What is stopping you from making a vaccine for COVID-19? I can promise you nobody will be upset with you if you do it, you don't need anyone's permission either.
- khafra 7y ago
  I don't think he's saying vaccine creation is easy, I think he's saying it's a hard problem that needs a concerted effort at developing shortcuts. Also, this is technically true, but vacuous: > What is stopping you from making a vaccine for COVID-19? I can promise you nobody will be upset with you if you do it, you don't need anyone's permission either. Even if by some herculean effort and unbelievable luck, I brewed up a Covid-19 vaccine in my garage, I would be unable to help people at scale with it unless it passed millions of dollars worth of testing for regulatory approval.
  - ailideex 7y ago
    Okay - so ... "we (as a species) need to get better at rapid vaccine creation. Like an order of magnitude better" ... and andyjohnson0 will do what exactly then to make this happen?
    - scrollaway 7y ago
      Generally, when someone makes statements like the one you're trying very hard to make fun of, the "we need to" means "our leaders should prioritize". Not that hard to understand really.
      - ailideex 7y ago
        Ah, so ... if andyjohnson0 is not part of the human species ... the heck is andyjohnson0? Also if andyjohnson0 wants their "leaders" to do something ... I mean ... andyjohnson0 can vote no? And are you suggesting "our leaders" are dragging their asses or something?
flarg 7y ago
Do you think a vaccine is the right answer? Surely development and stockpiling of anti virals is the key, Tamiflu or similar. The lead time for vaccines will also be far too long and the protection against flu like illnesses is variable over time. What do you think?
- andyjohnson0 7y ago
  > Surely development and stockpiling of anti virals is the key, Tamiflu or similar. Tamiflu doesn't have any effect on Covid-19. There might be antivirals that are effective, and testing is happening now. I'd argue we should be trying to find ways to speed that process up for next time. > The lead time for vaccines will also be far too long and the protection against flu like illnesses is variable over time. Thats what I was saying: can we (humans) get better/faster at doing this?
  - flarg 7y ago
    I think we can if we start to try and treat viral illnesses in the animals in wet markets
- 46Bit 7y ago
  The protection of antivirals is variable too. The value of Tamiflu itself still seems controversial.
- wbl 7y ago
  Tamiflu blocks neuramidase from releasing the viral particles. Coronavirus does not bind to salic acid so neuramidase is irrelevant.
hef19898 7y ago
International travel, especially between Europe and the US, was very much a thing back in 1918. Even more so for the younger, male population who tended to be packed in ships for the journey.
- andyjohnson0 7y ago
  I'm not saying there was no international travel in the early 20th century, just that the numbers are massively higher now.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    My point was the massive mobilization, and subsequent de-mobilization, of armies during World War I. Especially starting in 1917 across the Atlantic when the US entered the war in large numbers. Sure, not comparable to the way are traveling today, but the numbers still were in the millions. And they were cramped into ships for weeks, as compared to aircraft. The Diamond Princess showed us that this a nice breeding ground for a virus. EDIT: Some numbers: USA: 1.5 million men demobilized by February 1919, so it started right uring the second wave, in the US. Another roughly 2 million men in cramped demobilization camps in Europe. Later these US troops were moved from these camps to French towns and cities to ease tension among troop caused by crowded conditions. Also happening right during the second flu wave. Germany: roughly one million men simply walked home after the armistice in Nov. 1918, leaving roughly 6 million men under arms. These were demobilized in the four month after the armistice. So you have 7 million men travelling across the German Empire. During the second wave of the flu. Austria: No numbers found after a quick gogle search, except for 400,000 soldiers taken prisoner by the Italian during the desintegration of the Austr-Hungarian army. The demobilization in Austria collided with the desintagration of the Empire, so it was even more chaotic than the German one. Also taking place after the armestice in Nov. 1918 and during the second wave of the flu. Great Britain: demobilized roughly 3 million men between the armistice in Nov. 1918 and late 1919. Mostly from the Western Front. During the second wave of the flu. France: Demobilized 2.5 million men between Nov. 1918 and April 1919. Also from the western front, also during the second wave of the flu. There we talk about young men, the demographic most ht by the flu. All war powers kept the flu under wraps during the war, that's why it's called the Spanish Flu, Spanish newpapers were the first to report it. All these men travelled, moreor less coordinated, across Europe and the US. Most of them coming from the Western Front, from cramped conditions with sometimes bad hygenic conditions. And they met up with the young female population upon return, for obvious reasons. All in the time frame of a couple of months. The equivalent would be to move a large protion of our elderlies around the world now. Source: https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/demobilization https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/demobiliza... EDIT 2: From the submitted article: "Historians now believe that the fatal severity of the Spanish flu’s “second wave” was caused by a mutated virus spread by wartime troop movements." EDIT 3: It was much easier to find demobilization numbers thn mobiliztion numbers. The second wave hit before the Armistice in November. Demobilization is,if you want to call that, the return ticket of all these young people taking their trips to the western front. So they all moved there in the months before. And they travelled, from the trenches, to rear, on front vacation, to field hospitals, to hospitals elsewhere. They also travelled on the same ships that ran across the Atlantic, with much larger crews than we have today. The amount of traffic during the months before, and drung, the second wave was mind boggeling. Entente powers geared up for the huge, planned, 1919 spring offensive. EDIT 4: Nice tid bit, not only for the second wave. "By the end of the summer the virus had reached the German Army. The virus created serious problems for the German military leadership as they found it impossible to replace their sick and dying soldiers. The infection had already reached Germany and over 400,000 civilians died of the disease in 1918." from here: https://spartacus-educational.com/FWWinfluenzia.htm https://spartacus-educational.com/FWWinfluenzia.htm. I would have thought barbed wire, artillery, tranches, chemicla warfare and machine guns would have formed a nice barrier. Social contact, trenches have a lot of that, seemto be a much bigger factor it seems. Proves the point of avoiding gatherings, self-quarantine and sch things, IMHO.

avip 7y ago

Can we not? Why can't Australia for example close all borders and call it the day?

saagarjha 7y ago
Because Australia already has a number of cases?
mikekchar 7y ago
For one thing, most countries are not self sufficient in basic necessities (not even food!). You could do it for a very short time, but not sustain it. Also, the economy of the country depends on international trade. Modern economies actually don't have a lot of slack. If you shut down trade, quite a few companies will just go under. You would have to back that up with huge subsidies. It would be a massive undertaking.
- avip 7y ago
  Sure but shutting down all schools also shuts down the economy. Isn't closing borders for people, a more cost effective course of action ?
- asah 7y ago
  Viruses don't live long enough to survive ocean shipping, so as long as the (tiny) crew is kept isolated, ocean shipping is fine. Within a country, it's not hard to disinfect a truck and keep the driver isolated. Of course, if the originating factory is shut, then you're screwed - but that's true regardless of trade. Also worth noting: it takes a tiny number of people to produce tons of food (calories). Maybe not true for artisanal salami but for bulk basics.
  - blaser-waffle 7y ago
    The US is the single largest exporter of grain in the world. Not the largest producer, not the largest consumer, but the largest exporter. And the US farming population is ~1% of the total US pop. Modern tractors and combines are amazing. Doesn't mean there aren't a ton of bodies involved in processing and transportation, though. You can probably find local-ish wheat in the US, but you're not going to boil and eat the wheat berries for a porridge like it's 1850 (though you could); you're going to buy breakfast cereal.
- trevyn 7y ago
  You don’t need a whole modern economy to feed people.
- coldtea 7y ago
  Well, if there's a widespread virus that has "the power to kill a perfectly healthy young man or woman within 24 hours of showing the first signs of infection" the "economy" and "international trade" would be the least of our worries...
andyjohnson0 7y ago
In addition to the reasons others have given (self-sufficiency, and it being too late this time), closed boarders as a general and ongoing solution is very brittle. All it takes is one infected person to get across the border and you have no defence-in-depth. As a short-term measure in combination with other public health efforts, it might have some merit, but thats all really.

ailideex 7y ago

> need to get better at rapid vaccine creation. What is stopping you from making a vaccine for COVID-19? I can promise you nobody will be upset with you if you do it, you don't need anyone's permission either.

khafra 7y ago
I don't think he's saying vaccine creation is easy, I think he's saying it's a hard problem that needs a concerted effort at developing shortcuts. Also, this is technically true, but vacuous: > What is stopping you from making a vaccine for COVID-19? I can promise you nobody will be upset with you if you do it, you don't need anyone's permission either. Even if by some herculean effort and unbelievable luck, I brewed up a Covid-19 vaccine in my garage, I would be unable to help people at scale with it unless it passed millions of dollars worth of testing for regulatory approval.
- ailideex 7y ago
  Okay - so ... "we (as a species) need to get better at rapid vaccine creation. Like an order of magnitude better" ... and andyjohnson0 will do what exactly then to make this happen?
  - scrollaway 7y ago
    Generally, when someone makes statements like the one you're trying very hard to make fun of, the "we need to" means "our leaders should prioritize". Not that hard to understand really.
    - ailideex 7y ago
      Ah, so ... if andyjohnson0 is not part of the human species ... the heck is andyjohnson0? Also if andyjohnson0 wants their "leaders" to do something ... I mean ... andyjohnson0 can vote no? And are you suggesting "our leaders" are dragging their asses or something?

flarg 7y ago

Do you think a vaccine is the right answer? Surely development and stockpiling of anti virals is the key, Tamiflu or similar. The lead time for vaccines will also be far too long and the protection against flu like illnesses is variable over time. What do you think?

andyjohnson0 7y ago
> Surely development and stockpiling of anti virals is the key, Tamiflu or similar. Tamiflu doesn't have any effect on Covid-19. There might be antivirals that are effective, and testing is happening now. I'd argue we should be trying to find ways to speed that process up for next time. > The lead time for vaccines will also be far too long and the protection against flu like illnesses is variable over time. Thats what I was saying: can we (humans) get better/faster at doing this?
- flarg 7y ago
  I think we can if we start to try and treat viral illnesses in the animals in wet markets
46Bit 7y ago
The protection of antivirals is variable too. The value of Tamiflu itself still seems controversial.
wbl 7y ago
Tamiflu blocks neuramidase from releasing the viral particles. Coronavirus does not bind to salic acid so neuramidase is irrelevant.

hef19898 7y ago

International travel, especially between Europe and the US, was very much a thing back in 1918. Even more so for the younger, male population who tended to be packed in ships for the journey.

andyjohnson0 7y ago
I'm not saying there was no international travel in the early 20th century, just that the numbers are massively higher now.
- hef19898 7y ago
  My point was the massive mobilization, and subsequent de-mobilization, of armies during World War I. Especially starting in 1917 across the Atlantic when the US entered the war in large numbers. Sure, not comparable to the way are traveling today, but the numbers still were in the millions. And they were cramped into ships for weeks, as compared to aircraft. The Diamond Princess showed us that this a nice breeding ground for a virus. EDIT: Some numbers: USA: 1.5 million men demobilized by February 1919, so it started right uring the second wave, in the US. Another roughly 2 million men in cramped demobilization camps in Europe. Later these US troops were moved from these camps to French towns and cities to ease tension among troop caused by crowded conditions. Also happening right during the second flu wave. Germany: roughly one million men simply walked home after the armistice in Nov. 1918, leaving roughly 6 million men under arms. These were demobilized in the four month after the armistice. So you have 7 million men travelling across the German Empire. During the second wave of the flu. Austria: No numbers found after a quick gogle search, except for 400,000 soldiers taken prisoner by the Italian during the desintegration of the Austr-Hungarian army. The demobilization in Austria collided with the desintagration of the Empire, so it was even more chaotic than the German one. Also taking place after the armestice in Nov. 1918 and during the second wave of the flu. Great Britain: demobilized roughly 3 million men between the armistice in Nov. 1918 and late 1919. Mostly from the Western Front. During the second wave of the flu. France: Demobilized 2.5 million men between Nov. 1918 and April 1919. Also from the western front, also during the second wave of the flu. There we talk about young men, the demographic most ht by the flu. All war powers kept the flu under wraps during the war, that's why it's called the Spanish Flu, Spanish newpapers were the first to report it. All these men travelled, moreor less coordinated, across Europe and the US. Most of them coming from the Western Front, from cramped conditions with sometimes bad hygenic conditions. And they met up with the young female population upon return, for obvious reasons. All in the time frame of a couple of months. The equivalent would be to move a large protion of our elderlies around the world now. Source: https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/demobilization https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/demobiliza... EDIT 2: From the submitted article: "Historians now believe that the fatal severity of the Spanish flu’s “second wave” was caused by a mutated virus spread by wartime troop movements." EDIT 3: It was much easier to find demobilization numbers thn mobiliztion numbers. The second wave hit before the Armistice in November. Demobilization is,if you want to call that, the return ticket of all these young people taking their trips to the western front. So they all moved there in the months before. And they travelled, from the trenches, to rear, on front vacation, to field hospitals, to hospitals elsewhere. They also travelled on the same ships that ran across the Atlantic, with much larger crews than we have today. The amount of traffic during the months before, and drung, the second wave was mind boggeling. Entente powers geared up for the huge, planned, 1919 spring offensive. EDIT 4: Nice tid bit, not only for the second wave. "By the end of the summer the virus had reached the German Army. The virus created serious problems for the German military leadership as they found it impossible to replace their sick and dying soldiers. The infection had already reached Germany and over 400,000 civilians died of the disease in 1918." from here: https://spartacus-educational.com/FWWinfluenzia.htm https://spartacus-educational.com/FWWinfluenzia.htm. I would have thought barbed wire, artillery, tranches, chemicla warfare and machine guns would have formed a nice barrier. Social contact, trenches have a lot of that, seemto be a much bigger factor it seems. Proves the point of avoiding gatherings, self-quarantine and sch things, IMHO.