4 ms·

What happened in Wuhan when there weren't enough test kits and hospital beds

5 points by pspct 7y ago

Barrin92 7y ago
The Wuhan situation is emblematic of our habit of running societies at 100%. Everything is 'just in time', there are just enough hospital beds to minimize costs, markets leveraged to the max, no slack in the system, no redundancy or robustness, critical supply chains for vital goods can come down without preparation etc. It makes you think of systems thinkers like Donella Meadows and her writing on ecological systems, growth and leverage points. You can go straight from lack of sick leave, to viral spread at the workplace, to shutting down trade routes, to lack of masks in the hospital, to doctors themselves being infected, reinforcing and multiplying the situation and so on. The question will be if people after this finally go back to the drawing board and we ask ourselves if we need to make systemic changes to how we organise ourselves because even after this situation is over, there's the chance we get something ten times worse in the future. As Russ Ackoff said, an architect designs the house before they improve the rooms but I sadly doubt we'll be wiser this time.
- pspct 7y ago
  Yes, it definitely is problematic to have everything "just in time", but, the problem with this virus is that it's basically a DDoS attack on the medical system. Wuhan is not a poor city. They average 7.38 hospital beds per 1000 persons by 2018 data. In comparison, the US averages 2.4 beds per 1000 persons in 2016. On top of the strict quarantine, China had to build two 1000-bed hospitals in 2 weeks, convert multiple public spaces into field hospitals, and send thousands of medical professionals from all over the country to get the situation under control in Wuhan. I shudder to think what would happen if we fail to mitigate the spread here.
allovernow 7y ago
Can't count the number of downvotes I've received for pointing out that the official Chinese numbers are hugely underreported. This article is just the tip of the iceberg. This is why I don't entirely trust their claimed recovery. Because an authoritarian government requires respect and/or fear in order to rule, face becomes a priority above all else. You simply cannot trust such governments. This wouldn't be the first time that the Chinese government has lied about something significant, and the Soviet Union is also an appropriate precedent.

5 points by pspct 7y ago

The Wuhan situation is emblematic of our habit of running societies at 100%. Everything is 'just in time', there are just enough hospital beds to minimize costs, markets leveraged to the max, no slack in the system, no redundancy or robustness, critical supply chains for vital goods can come down without preparation etc. It makes you think of systems thinkers like Donella Meadows and her writing on ecological systems, growth and leverage points. You can go straight from lack of sick leave, to viral spread at the workplace, to shutting down trade routes, to lack of masks in the hospital, to doctors themselves being infected, reinforcing and multiplying the situation and so on. The question will be if people after this finally go back to the drawing board and we ask ourselves if we need to make systemic changes to how we organise ourselves because even after this situation is over, there's the chance we get something ten times worse in the future. As Russ Ackoff said, an architect designs the house before they improve the rooms but I sadly doubt we'll be wiser this time.

pspct 7y ago
Yes, it definitely is problematic to have everything "just in time", but, the problem with this virus is that it's basically a DDoS attack on the medical system. Wuhan is not a poor city. They average 7.38 hospital beds per 1000 persons by 2018 data. In comparison, the US averages 2.4 beds per 1000 persons in 2016. On top of the strict quarantine, China had to build two 1000-bed hospitals in 2 weeks, convert multiple public spaces into field hospitals, and send thousands of medical professionals from all over the country to get the situation under control in Wuhan. I shudder to think what would happen if we fail to mitigate the spread here.

allovernow 7y ago

Can't count the number of downvotes I've received for pointing out that the official Chinese numbers are hugely underreported. This article is just the tip of the iceberg. This is why I don't entirely trust their claimed recovery. Because an authoritarian government requires respect and/or fear in order to rule, face becomes a priority above all else. You simply cannot trust such governments. This wouldn't be the first time that the Chinese government has lied about something significant, and the Soviet Union is also an appropriate precedent.