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i don't understand how knowing that you have the virus makes it less likely that you will die from it. There's no cure right? and at this point, anyone with a

i don't understand how knowing that you have the virus makes it less likely that you will die from it. There's no cure right? and at this point, anyone with a flu or cold will assume they have it and act accordingly, right?

snewman 7y ago
It doesn't change the actual odds, it changes the perceived / measured odds. Imagine 100 people contract the virus, 10 develop serious symptoms, and one dies. In country A, with widespread testing, 40 of the 100 are identified. The visible statistics are 40 cases, one death, death rate of 2.5%. In country B, with poor testing, only the 10 with serious symptoms are identified. The visible statistics are 10 cases, one death, death rate of 10%. Again, this is about the reported statistics, not the underlying truth of the disease.
- pmoriarty 7y ago
  It also changes how people react and what they do. Right now I see so many people carrying on their life as usual, because they think there aren't many infected people around them. That impression is a consequence of the lack of testing. It's likely that there are quite a few people around them who are sick and spreading this disease, and if more people realized that they'd act differently. Resources and isolation measures are also directed to places where there are a lot of known infections, but if those infections are undetected very little gets done about them. The relative lack of testing is a nightmare in the making.
- trianglem 7y ago
  So based on that Italy’s true infected count is 15 times what they’re reporting or closer to 225,000 cases.
  - dboreham 7y ago
    There was a Dr from John's Hopkins on CNBC tonight who said he estimated there are 250k-500k infected people in the US right now.
- Goladus 7y ago
  You are correct, though though actually more complex than this. 1. Death from complications takes some time. You won't really know the real numbers until enough time has passed for the serious cases to resolve one way or the other. 2. Treatment makes a difference. Odds of death increase dramatically when treatment is not available.
baxtr 7y ago
No it doesn't. But what you ultimately want to know is the real number of infections. Testing is the best way to estimate that number. If you test just a few people you might e.g. miss a large portion that is either asymptomatic or is categorized as having a flu or cold. In this latter case, of course, the calculated lethality is higher than in the former - i.e. if you test lots and lots of people.
majormajor 7y ago
It makes you less likely to give it to other people. Which makes people less likely to go to the hospital. Which makes the hospital less likely to run out of beds and equipment. Which makes the people with serious cases less likely to die. Which might even be... you in a few more days if you have a case that develops complications!

snewman 7y ago

It doesn't change the actual odds, it changes the perceived / measured odds. Imagine 100 people contract the virus, 10 develop serious symptoms, and one dies. In country A, with widespread testing, 40 of the 100 are identified. The visible statistics are 40 cases, one death, death rate of 2.5%. In country B, with poor testing, only the 10 with serious symptoms are identified. The visible statistics are 10 cases, one death, death rate of 10%. Again, this is about the reported statistics, not the underlying truth of the disease.

pmoriarty 7y ago
It also changes how people react and what they do. Right now I see so many people carrying on their life as usual, because they think there aren't many infected people around them. That impression is a consequence of the lack of testing. It's likely that there are quite a few people around them who are sick and spreading this disease, and if more people realized that they'd act differently. Resources and isolation measures are also directed to places where there are a lot of known infections, but if those infections are undetected very little gets done about them. The relative lack of testing is a nightmare in the making.
trianglem 7y ago
So based on that Italy’s true infected count is 15 times what they’re reporting or closer to 225,000 cases.
- dboreham 7y ago
  There was a Dr from John's Hopkins on CNBC tonight who said he estimated there are 250k-500k infected people in the US right now.
Goladus 7y ago
You are correct, though though actually more complex than this. 1. Death from complications takes some time. You won't really know the real numbers until enough time has passed for the serious cases to resolve one way or the other. 2. Treatment makes a difference. Odds of death increase dramatically when treatment is not available.

baxtr 7y ago

No it doesn't. But what you ultimately want to know is the real number of infections. Testing is the best way to estimate that number. If you test just a few people you might e.g. miss a large portion that is either asymptomatic or is categorized as having a flu or cold. In this latter case, of course, the calculated lethality is higher than in the former - i.e. if you test lots and lots of people.

majormajor 7y ago

It makes you less likely to give it to other people. Which makes people less likely to go to the hospital. Which makes the hospital less likely to run out of beds and equipment. Which makes the people with serious cases less likely to die. Which might even be... you in a few more days if you have a case that develops complications!