3 ms·

> and why such incredible measures are required to stop the spread. Since we're learning that the fatality rate is much lower than SARS, as was feared early on

> and why such incredible measures are required to stop the spread. Since we're learning that the fatality rate is much lower than SARS, as was feared early on, and that it's much more mild of an illness -- and also that it's highly contagious and already widespread -- it strikes me that the opposite is true. We should do everything we can to protect the elderly and ill, but a disease that is so mild that 85% of people over 80 still survive it, it doesn't strike me as something worth tanking the global economy over. If you're middle-aged or younger and you drive to work, travel internationally, drink alcohol, etc., you've taken similar risks as COVID-19 poses to you. This is incredibly unpopular on HN, and I'm ok with that. Holing everyone up in their apartments for the next year would put almost everyone reading this out of a job, many without housing, and without healthcare. This is a "keep calm, wash your hands, and carry on" moment, and we're failing.

eloff 7y ago
I think we have different definitions of mild. Something that kills 1% of healthy middle aged people is quite scary.
- nostromo 7y ago
  It doesn't though. Here's a distribution of Italian deaths: https://external-preview.redd.it/nOYqCT3-3vzX6aPnaHk3Jb6LSvSnQIHxqYH6FPXrcfs.png?width=1024&auto=webp&s=c2e3ac21bbab29599bb3535c18057ab8d442f3e7 https://external-preview.redd.it/nOYqCT3-3vzX6aPnaHk3Jb6LSvS... Note that over half the deaths are over the average age of life expectancy of an Italian.
  - marcinzm 7y ago
    It doesn't when there's a functioning non overloaded health system. Italy's health system despite all the lockdown measures is barely functioning at this point (and can't stay in this state for long). Without efforts to slow transmission the death rate goes up a lot as anyone who'd need hospitalization is as good as dead. edit: And once your health system collapses anyone who needs hospitalization for any reason is in trouble.
d4mi3n 7y ago
I'd still be concerned about further mutation. With something as virulent as HCoV-19, even a minor increase in morbidity rates could be catastrophic. Even without high morbidity rates, a survival rate of 85% without treatment is still horrific in scenarios where local healthcare systems become overwhelmed. Reading accounts of just that happening in Italy is chilling.
ardit33 7y ago
There are reports, that plenty of those "80%" mild cases have pneumonia and permanent lung scaring (aka, you will never be able to play intense sports), even though they don't end up in a tube/forced oxygenation.... Sorry, I'd rather take a 2 months economy hit, than a long term burn.... which will cause a longer term economic problem as well.
- nostromo 7y ago
  The decision isn't to either get it now or not at all. The decision if you'd like to get it now or later. If you decide to get it now, you probably have a job. If you decide to get it later, you quite possibly don't.
  - marcinzm 7y ago
    And if everyone gets it now the health system collapses, 15% of the infected die and anyone who needs a hospital for any life-saving reason also dies.
  - kyriakos 7y ago
    getting it later there's also a greater chance that an anti-viral treatment may become available.
- ratfaced-guy 7y ago
  You’re gonna have to give a source for that, that sounds like complete doomer bullshit, I’ve been following this since early January and the only reports of permanent lung scarring are being mostly attributed to the need for mechanical intubation or absolute critical cases. Like anything else, it would be worse the older you are.
- dogma1138 7y ago
  If you get pneumonia it can’t be a mild cases People really need to stop spreading misinformation.
cjbprime 7y ago
Your country (whichever one it is) doesn't have enough ICU beds for 10% of people over 70 -- it probably has orders of magnitude fewer available beds -- and note that people who don't die can still end up in hospital for weeks and requiring a respirator, increasing that percentage of beds required. My amateur understanding is that accelerated contagion of COVID-19 will destroy your country's health infrastructure, and then many people who don't have COVID-19 will start dying too because healthcare can't reach them. That's why delaying infection is so valuable. It's not just about the direct symptoms that most people get.
astronautjones 7y ago
> We should do everything we can to protect the elderly and ill, but a disease that is so mild that 85% of people over 80 still survive it, it doesn't strike me as something worth tanking the global economy over. If you're middle-aged or younger and you drive to work, travel internationally, drink alcohol, etc., you've taken similar risks as COVID-19 poses to you. You're wrong, though. Regardless of how dismissive you want to be about people getting the virus, they are going to have symptoms that make them seek treatment. the system cannot accommodate large numbers of people seeking treatment. No one is going to "keep calm" when they feel severely ill, they're going to rightly seek help from doctors. The crisis is when lots of people seek that help at once. We are trying to prevent that and it's worth it! If the US economy takes a shit, it's going to be because the government is offering no financial help whatsoever to the people who are going to be destitute when they miss work.
- rimliu 7y ago
  Except there is no real treatment for the mild cases. "Stay home and wait till it is over".

eloff 7y ago

I think we have different definitions of mild. Something that kills 1% of healthy middle aged people is quite scary.

nostromo 7y ago
It doesn't though. Here's a distribution of Italian deaths: https://external-preview.redd.it/nOYqCT3-3vzX6aPnaHk3Jb6LSvSnQIHxqYH6FPXrcfs.png?width=1024&auto=webp&s=c2e3ac21bbab29599bb3535c18057ab8d442f3e7 https://external-preview.redd.it/nOYqCT3-3vzX6aPnaHk3Jb6LSvS... Note that over half the deaths are over the average age of life expectancy of an Italian.
- marcinzm 7y ago
  It doesn't when there's a functioning non overloaded health system. Italy's health system despite all the lockdown measures is barely functioning at this point (and can't stay in this state for long). Without efforts to slow transmission the death rate goes up a lot as anyone who'd need hospitalization is as good as dead. edit: And once your health system collapses anyone who needs hospitalization for any reason is in trouble.

d4mi3n 7y ago

I'd still be concerned about further mutation. With something as virulent as HCoV-19, even a minor increase in morbidity rates could be catastrophic. Even without high morbidity rates, a survival rate of 85% without treatment is still horrific in scenarios where local healthcare systems become overwhelmed. Reading accounts of just that happening in Italy is chilling.

ardit33 7y ago

There are reports, that plenty of those "80%" mild cases have pneumonia and permanent lung scaring (aka, you will never be able to play intense sports), even though they don't end up in a tube/forced oxygenation.... Sorry, I'd rather take a 2 months economy hit, than a long term burn.... which will cause a longer term economic problem as well.

nostromo 7y ago
The decision isn't to either get it now or not at all. The decision if you'd like to get it now or later. If you decide to get it now, you probably have a job. If you decide to get it later, you quite possibly don't.
- marcinzm 7y ago
  And if everyone gets it now the health system collapses, 15% of the infected die and anyone who needs a hospital for any life-saving reason also dies.
- kyriakos 7y ago
  getting it later there's also a greater chance that an anti-viral treatment may become available.
ratfaced-guy 7y ago
You’re gonna have to give a source for that, that sounds like complete doomer bullshit, I’ve been following this since early January and the only reports of permanent lung scarring are being mostly attributed to the need for mechanical intubation or absolute critical cases. Like anything else, it would be worse the older you are.
dogma1138 7y ago
If you get pneumonia it can’t be a mild cases People really need to stop spreading misinformation.

cjbprime 7y ago

Your country (whichever one it is) doesn't have enough ICU beds for 10% of people over 70 -- it probably has orders of magnitude fewer available beds -- and note that people who don't die can still end up in hospital for weeks and requiring a respirator, increasing that percentage of beds required. My amateur understanding is that accelerated contagion of COVID-19 will destroy your country's health infrastructure, and then many people who don't have COVID-19 will start dying too because healthcare can't reach them. That's why delaying infection is so valuable. It's not just about the direct symptoms that most people get.

astronautjones 7y ago

> We should do everything we can to protect the elderly and ill, but a disease that is so mild that 85% of people over 80 still survive it, it doesn't strike me as something worth tanking the global economy over. If you're middle-aged or younger and you drive to work, travel internationally, drink alcohol, etc., you've taken similar risks as COVID-19 poses to you. You're wrong, though. Regardless of how dismissive you want to be about people getting the virus, they are going to have symptoms that make them seek treatment. the system cannot accommodate large numbers of people seeking treatment. No one is going to "keep calm" when they feel severely ill, they're going to rightly seek help from doctors. The crisis is when lots of people seek that help at once. We are trying to prevent that and it's worth it! If the US economy takes a shit, it's going to be because the government is offering no financial help whatsoever to the people who are going to be destitute when they miss work.

rimliu 7y ago
Except there is no real treatment for the mild cases. "Stay home and wait till it is over".